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AI is mostly about curve fitting (2018)

diginomica.com

111–120 of 192 posts

Re: AI is mostly about curve fitting (2018)

#111

So, one view of AI is that is is machine learning. Another view is that it consists of automated process. So, if expert systems count as AI, or if production rule systems count as AI, then pretty much any handcrafted if-then statement counts as AI. And, so too might any automated process.. This is has the advantage of recognizing how human intelligence can be automated and aggregated into system processes. And, the d…

I too hold the view that artificial intelligence is not reliant on computers. Sufficiently complex business logic is impossible for a single person -- even the CEO -- to have an end-to-end view (much less have a significant influence on). The emergent behavior of large companies fits a definition of an AI today; human "decision makers" are increasingly just reviewing and approving the output of algorithms. I think th…

Yeah, I mean, it's a slippery slope, but one worth sliding down. Is autopilot AI? If so, it was invented in 1914. Are speed governors AI? That was James Watt. Are if-then statements AI? That's the basis of human laws, dating back thousands of years.

Are corporations AI, or rather superintelligences, because they are groups of people bound by bylaws? If so, the whole damn world is AI through and through and machine learning is really just the tip of the iceberg.

Re: AI is mostly about curve fitting (2018)

#112
post #96

What if human intelligence is not computable? Why does no researcher address the fundamental assumption of the field?

It is possible that human intelligence is not computable, but it looks veeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeery difficult to prove it. Nobody is sure. So the options are:

1) Try to prove that human intelligence is not computable.

2) Give up and go to another research field, like particle physics or artificial sweeteners or whatever.

3) Try to see how close to human intelligence can you get with the current technology. Some small areas may have a good approximation, like image classification, playing chess, …

4) Try to make a fully functional bug compatible human simulation.

Most people is in 2 or 3.

Re: AI is mostly about curve fitting (2018)

#113
post #65

The article is less awful than the title. In short, the thesis is that ML seems only able to learn associations, rather than stronger, causal models. It should be fairly obvious that ‘curve fitting’ is a misleading category—these models are clearly learning highly meaningful latent spaces that no prior approaches ever did. But I would agree that the actual high-level ability to make causal inferences seems to be lack…

This is interesting, as this appears to be similar to the difference between Daniel Kahneman's System1 and System2 modes of human thought. ML is perhaps beginning to approach our subconscious, associative intelligence. This shows up in its excellence for things like image processing, which we do instantly and automatically. Perhaps growing the tech equivalent of a prefrontal cortex is what's going to be hard, or requ…

We're getting there. I have the feeling more an more people subscribe to the hunch that combining symbolic (GOFAI) with subsymbolic (PDP/NN) techniques is the way forward. Research is going on, an example is the Neuro-Symbolic Concept Learner described in this [1] paper.

[1] https://deepai.org/publication/the-neuro-symbolic-concept-le...

Re: AI is mostly about curve fitting (2018)

#114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You make a strong claim without anything to back it up. I don’t understand why it’s become trendy to deny that consciousness exists; to me it’s isomorphic to saying “We don’t actually exist at all. Prove me wrong.” It’s a vacuous statement, meant to sound evocative, but difficult to respond to in any meaningful way. If I made a list of everything in order of how certain I am that the item on the list exists, consciou…

You falsely imply that the parent comment attempts "to deny that consciousness exists". What the parent comment actually says is "consciousness is nothing special" and "consciousness is a sliding scale rather than a binary property". These are different from non-existence.

p-zombies are not conscious, by definition.

Re: AI is mostly about curve fitting (2018)

#115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What’s wrong with anthropomorphizing? I’ve noticed at least as many people under-anthropomorphize as over. People who seem obsessed with human exceptionalism and are personally offended at the idea that plants and animals (and computers!) might have subjective experiences like our own. But to me it seems obvious we are far more alike “lower” species than we are unlike them. I would say the cases of human exceptionali…

Anthropomorphizing is dangerous because it leads to metaphor that can both ascribe too much to the subject and create blind spots in the minds of researchers. Saying, for example, "Dogs want love," is fine for the owner but problematic for a researcher because love, as we understand it, is a human state. We'll never really understand what it means for a dog to feel loved. To the ethologist that is not to say that the…

Or people who say "The computer thinks...". No it's a machine that only does what people make it do.

Re: AI is mostly about curve fitting (2018)

#116
post #16

Well, most of science is also just curve fitting.

Pretty sure Maxwells Equations and the laws of thermodynamics didn't come from curve fitting! Experimentalists may have verified these ideas using some kind of curve fitting, but thinking in abstractions, aka, "a ball rolled out in the street, maybe a child will follow," is one of the things curve fitting can't do.

Most of the terms in Maxwell Equations were added one at a time to fit some restrictive set of experiments. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maxwell%27s_equations#Conceptu... The last term was a leap of faith.

The Plank Equation for the black body https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planck%27s_law was the most successful curve fitting in history. They need like 30 years to discover quantum mechanics and understand the details.

Re: AI is mostly about curve fitting (2018)

#117
post #65

The article is less awful than the title. In short, the thesis is that ML seems only able to learn associations, rather than stronger, causal models. It should be fairly obvious that ‘curve fitting’ is a misleading category—these models are clearly learning highly meaningful latent spaces that no prior approaches ever did. But I would agree that the actual high-level ability to make causal inferences seems to be lack…

> But I would agree that the actual high-level ability to make causal inferences seems to be lacking.

That should be expected. Humans also lack the ability to make causal inference. The vast majority of us have extremely primitive causal reasoning abilities and get even simple causality wrong. Reasoning about causality in complex systems still isn't a solved problem for humans, and we have entire fields within philosophy trying to make sense of the hundreds of paradoxes within causal reasoning. It's not a solved problem, and it's not clear that it ever will be.

Re: AI is mostly about curve fitting (2018)

#118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everything is a lie, until you're tautological. Machine learning itself seems a bit of misnomer. High dimensional curve fitting is a good description, imho.

Is nothing a lie, though?

If everything is a lie, then nothing is a lie, and that’s the truth (or not).

Re: AI is mostly about curve fitting (2018)

#120
post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You falsely imply that the parent comment attempts "to deny that consciousness exists". What the parent comment actually says is "consciousness is nothing special" and "consciousness is a sliding scale rather than a binary property". These are different from non-existence.

p-zombies are not conscious, by definition.

p-zombies can believe that they are though. Which circles back to 'consciousness is nothing special' rather than 'consciousness doesn't exist'.

To put it another way, if AGI is computable, then we are all p-zombies. And evidence is starting to strongly hint that AGI is computable.

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