Misinterpreting hurricane forecasts

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Aug 30, 2019, 7:51 PM UTC

Retric wrote: post #87

albertocairo wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hi Jsight, Alberto Cairo here. I wrote the piece, but didn't design the maps, so I'll ask. In any case, even if there's an inconsistency between the maps in the piece—which are intended to be illustrative, I guess—and the NHC ones, it doesn't undermine, I think, the overall message, which is that, regardless of whether you are inside of the cone or outside and close to it, it's safer to prepare just in case. People s…

Risks are higher at the center of the cone. A hypothetical 100 mile wide storm that’s 40 miles west of the centerline still covers the centerline, but likely misses the eastern edge. Also, staggered evacuation is a good thing, you don’t want everyone in a city to decide to leave at the same time.

[deleted]

Post by albertocairo » Fri, Aug 30, 2019, 7:51 PM UTC

albertocairo wrote: post #110

Retric wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Risks are higher at the center of the cone. A hypothetical 100 mile wide storm that’s 40 miles west of the centerline still covers the centerline, but likely misses the eastern edge. Also, staggered evacuation is a good thing, you don’t want everyone in a city to decide to leave at the same time.

That might be true mathematically but talking to forecasters who work on this, they greatly de-emphasize the center line. Instead, they do emphasize that the forecast is the cone, not the center line alone. They direct your attention away from the center line (readers tend to stick too much to it), and say something similar to what is in the article: areas outside will be likely affected, everyone should take precaut…

One last thing: risks aren't necessarily higher on the center line. Just to give you an example: if you live in a low-level region far from the center line but that is prone to flooding, risks may be higher than if you are by the line but your house is on high ground (again, the cone says nothing about hazards, as pointed out).

Thanks for the comment!

Re: Misinterpreting hurricane forecasts

Re: Misinterpreting hurricane forecasts