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Average Global Temperatures since 1850

kyso.io

111–120 of 125 posts

Re: Average Global Temperatures since 1850

#111
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm familiar with the blog posts you have been reading on this topic, but its really not so easy to dismiss the data. The hypothesis you would need to accept, to believe the surface temperature record is not accurate, would be the systematic error is consistently measuring things a little bit warmer over time. If you wanted to prove that point you could try to find some mechanism that would explain it. But the proble…

It's not so much that the surface temperature record isn't accurate, it's that it's been systematically tampered with / adjusted. https://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/20... Older data has been adjusted to be cooler and newer data has been adjusted to be warmer. You can debate why it's been adjusted all you want, but the fact that the adjustments are there and they are adjusted to make newer data…

Funny you should mention this. This was one of the other things that really drew my attention towards the whole climate situation many years back. I was in a techie forum somewhere when the subject of climate came up, and one of the folks there mentioned that he was something of a data hoarder (which is a real thing, I guess). And he said that he had copies of historical temperature data downloaded from various years, and that he had noticed the numbers sometimes magically changing from year to year. He said that it appeared to him that the data sets were being tampered with. And most everybody else there (not me) jumped all over him, calling him a liar and saying that reputable scientists would never do such a thing! Except, of course, that's exactly what they've been doing.

Re: Average Global Temperatures since 1850

#112
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm familiar with the blog posts you have been reading on this topic, but its really not so easy to dismiss the data. The hypothesis you would need to accept, to believe the surface temperature record is not accurate, would be the systematic error is consistently measuring things a little bit warmer over time. If you wanted to prove that point you could try to find some mechanism that would explain it. But the proble…

It's not so much that the surface temperature record isn't accurate, it's that it's been systematically tampered with / adjusted. https://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/20... Older data has been adjusted to be cooler and newer data has been adjusted to be warmer. You can debate why it's been adjusted all you want, but the fact that the adjustments are there and they are adjusted to make newer data…

There are over 5 different groups that have done temperature reconstructions, including a climate skeptic funded by the Koch brothers. (Berkeley Earth) They all get the same trend. You would be suggesting that all of these groups, including the Koch brother's funded one, are all making the same fraudulent adjustments. That seems unlikely. This would included three groups from the USA (Nasa, NOAA, Berkely), one from the UK, one from Japan, and possibly others.

As well, the fraudulent activity would be going on with satellite based reconstruction, deep sea temperature measurements, ice extent and mass measurements, all being done by other groups in various ways.

If you really feel that this is what is going on, it is possible to do your own reconstruction from raw data. The raw data, unadjusted, is freely available. If you pick a time frame to look at, where you have a few hundred stations randomly distributed around the globe, that are not changing during that time period, then you don't have to do any adjustments to the data at all. I've done this before, pulling raw data into MySql and analyzing it. You get limited to smaller chunks of time, but I got the same trends all of the professional groups got in that time period. This was something I did years ago, to try to cut through all of the rhetoric that one can read on the internet.

Re: Average Global Temperatures since 1850

#113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm familiar with the blog posts you have been reading on this topic, but its really not so easy to dismiss the data. The hypothesis you would need to accept, to believe the surface temperature record is not accurate, would be the systematic error is consistently measuring things a little bit warmer over time. If you wanted to prove that point you could try to find some mechanism that would explain it. But the proble…

It appears that Berkeley didn't actually do what they claimed to do, though, if you go back and review what they did. In fact, at this point in time I'm pretty much convinced that they were just providing a "false front" - pretending to be skeptical about the situation when they actually weren't so from the beginning. At the very least they used the same questionable data and the same (or similar) algorithms that the…

I've already done my own climate reconstruction myself, have you?

I don't think you are thinking clearly about this.

Re: Average Global Temperatures since 1850

#114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What data would convince you that anthropogenic climate change was real?

What is your own estimate of probability that anthropogenic climate change is real? That is, anthropogenic factors are the most significant contributor to climate change and mitigating them will allow to significantly affect the rate of climate change (to the point where it would make a significant difference to humans).

High. In terms of what effect complete mitigation would have, I don’t know. However I figure that it costs me little to change my habits to things that are positive whether or not they cause climate change.

Re: Average Global Temperatures since 1850

#115
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://static.skepticalscience.com/images/Temperature_Patte... vs https://static.skepticalscience.com/images/Temp_Pattern_1999... source: https://skepticalscience.com/greenland-used-to-be-green.htm

You can go to L'Anse aux Meadows and see the ruins with your own eyes. You can then look around the area and look at the trees.

Could you explain how this relates to the argument here? I understand that there has been a lot of discussion about how much can grow that far north and how that has changed over time but it doesn’t seem a conclusive discussion at all.

Re: Average Global Temperatures since 1850

#116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you say there has been any other species we know of that was able to cause, perceive, predict, prevent, and react to catastrophes before? We seem to be unique in that we can prevent and react to catastrophes, even ignoring that we can also cause them.

I am not sure whether this is true but aren’t people saying that dogs and other animals can sense incoming earthquakes etc. and will get anxious/try to GTFO?

Isn't that simply because they can hear very low sound frequencies which often come shortly before an earthquake? The technology we have now is far superior at predicting such events using geological vibrations and weather data etc (which still gives quite short warning times, but still).

Re: Average Global Temperatures since 1850

#117
post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. Assumptions made in the video are realistic. You kinda need battery storage for your solar/wind. Other sources can be hard/impossible to stop. Batteries are the only form of storage that's scalable. Hydro exist, but you can't expect to just add another hydroelectric dam, whenever your solar overwhelms your current capacity. Hell even storing gravitational energy probably requires frankly massive amounts o…

> I disagree. Assumptions made in the video are realistic. Nope, they're the opposite of realistic because they disagree with reality. > You kinda need battery storage for your solar/wind. You kinda don't. Here in Scotland, we've gone from around 15% renewables in 2007 to 70% in 2017. We closed our last coal station in 2016. Guess how many battery storage facilities we have? None. There are plans to build one in the…

> Nope, they're the opposite of realistic because they disagree with reality.

Or, your premises are different. From what I see Scotland derives like 90% of its power from Wind, which is possible its unique property. Another thing to take into consideration is that California has a larger population than Scotland.

But overall I get what you are saying. I still suspect going 100% renewable won't be feasible for most countries.

Re: Average Global Temperatures since 1850

#118
post #32
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Make sure your assets are shielded from the consequences. I'm a strong believer in voting with legs. For example - it's insane how the Miami real estate prices ignore what's going on (they even have a cheerful name - "sunny day floods"): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MIXRNSA Just sell it already! There's nothing good waiting for Miami, the city will die. Rent if you really want to stay till it blows up. As far a…

Minor correction: hundreds of millions of refugees is the best case scenario in the UN climate refugees projection.

By worst case I meant that warming is not stopped. There are scenarios under which it will be stopped, most likely one is solar geo-engineering.

Re: Average Global Temperatures since 1850

#119
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not so much that the surface temperature record isn't accurate, it's that it's been systematically tampered with / adjusted. https://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/20... Older data has been adjusted to be cooler and newer data has been adjusted to be warmer. You can debate why it's been adjusted all you want, but the fact that the adjustments are there and they are adjusted to make newer data…

There are over 5 different groups that have done temperature reconstructions, including a climate skeptic funded by the Koch brothers. (Berkeley Earth) They all get the same trend. You would be suggesting that all of these groups, including the Koch brother's funded one, are all making the same fraudulent adjustments. That seems unlikely. This would included three groups from the USA (Nasa, NOAA, Berkely), one from t…

I probably wouldn't call it fraud (others might, though) as much as I would call it scientific incompetence in general (it appears that many "scientists" these days, across a number of different fields, are actually quite bad at doing science; this probably isn't a new phenomenon, though, there's just a lot more of it these days), mixed with generally crap data, mixed with bad statistical methods (there's been a lot of talk about problems with this lately), mixed with an overwhelming need to get your papers published by doing whatever it takes.

Having read scientific journals myself on and off for several decades now, one of the things I've noticed is that once a paper gets published in a reputable peer-reviewed journal, then that opens the floodgates for other related papers to get published using related data and related methods. And that's true even if the original paper used highly questionable data and highly questionable methods, as so many do these days.

The reality of scientific publishing today is that scientists need something - anything - of theirs to get published in order to build and maintain their professional reputations. And journals need something - anything - to publish; usually something provocative, too, otherwise nobody would bother paying the high fees that they charge. So a lot of what they publish is just their version of clickbait.

Funny you should mention Japan: Back when I did my deep dive, one of the cities in Japan (Tokyo, I think it was) was being held up as a worst case example for warming. And if you looked at the raw temperature data, the warming there was kind of scary enough as it was, but in the adjusted data it was just horrific. And I thought to myself that one of two things was going on here: Either the level of warming that was being claimed to have occurred there didn't actually occur, or that it puts lie to the notion that humans and flora and fauna can't readily adapt to such warming. After all, it's not like Tokyo is an apocalyptic dead zone or anything, now is it?

As to the raw data itself, the last time I checked the raw HadCRUT3 data that I used in my deep dive was no longer available (I kept running into broken links and such), and this data had only been provided under duress in the first place. I didn't really strain any muscles trying to look for it again, though. Nor did I originally have much luck trying to find similar data for HadCRUT4 (again I didn't look too hard), but I have seen passing references to it being out there somewhere.

And by "raw" I mean the data as it originally came in from the various temperature stations, without being manipulated in any way except maybe to get it all in a common format for easy processing. But apparently what I call "raw" and what some other folks call "raw" can be quite different things.

And unlike your situation, when I looked at the HadCRUT3 data (at least the version that existed at the time; I know they made some changes to it afterwards) what I found there was appalling. So either massive fraud was going on at the time, or (more likely) they had just allowed their computer algorithms to run amok on it without really quality checking the final results.

As to stations "not changing during that time period", I forget the details but you should be aware that some folks (not me) have gone so far as to track down a few such stations (those which were well-documented and well-maintained, but with no documented moves or changes), only to find that the algorithms had made adjustments to them anyway! As for the local station that I used, the adjustments were such that it made it look like this station had shifted from condition A to condition B (that it had moved or whatever), then shifted back to condition A, then back to condition B, and so on, and that it shifted by exactly the same amount every time, too. Then rinse and repeat, every few years, which is hardly a realistic scenario.

BTW, all of those changes were warming changes, too. There was never a cooling change that I saw, at least not for my local station nor the handful of other stations that I also checked. The most that I saw was those periodic shifts back from the "adjusted" (warmer) data to the "raw" (cooler) data.

I did that deep dive about ten years ago, BTW, and the local data set I used went back to about 1870 or so - a solid 130+ years of data. I know a lot has changed in those ten years, but I don't know that much has really changed for the better concerning the data or the algorithms being used to process it.

Re: Average Global Temperatures since 1850

#120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It appears that Berkeley didn't actually do what they claimed to do, though, if you go back and review what they did. In fact, at this point in time I'm pretty much convinced that they were just providing a "false front" - pretending to be skeptical about the situation when they actually weren't so from the beginning. At the very least they used the same questionable data and the same (or similar) algorithms that the…

I've already done my own climate reconstruction myself, have you? I don't think you are thinking clearly about this.

Yes I have, actually, as I've already pointed out in my other comments. But that was about ten years ago, using data that was made available (and then only under duress) at the time.

And I'm thinking far more clearly about this than many people are, apparently. You yourself seem a bit confused about how science in general actually works these days, and climate science in particular. Are you aware, for example, that most so-called "climate experts" actually have little to no formal education in the area? And some of them, like Steven Mosher of Berkeley Earth, studied things like literature and philosophy instead.

http://berkeleyearth.org/team/steven-mosher/

This situation is generally the exception in other fields of study, but instead seems to be the rule in climate science. A cynical person might suggest that the field is populated largely of drop-outs from other fields. Or at least by people who are just generally going where the money is, or maybe wherever they think they can get published. But a professional "scientist" would never do such a thing, would they - chase funding, or chase easy publication?

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