Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The BS-Industrial Complex of Phony A.I.

gen.medium.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

111–120 of 384 posts

Re: The BS-Industrial Complex of Phony A.I.

#111

Post by jhanschoo »

yonkshi wrote: post #87

AGI is a gradient, not an arbitrary threshold. We are not capable of recreating human level intelligence yet, but our modern algorithms had become magnitudes better at generalization and sample efficiency. And this trend is not showing any signs of slowing down. Take PPO for example (powers the OpenAI 5 dota agent), the same algorithms can be used for robotic arms as it does with video games. Two completely different…

Asking how close our computers and algorithms are to AGI is like asking how close our machines and power systems are to "human physicality".

Re: The BS-Industrial Complex of Phony A.I.

#112

Post by yonkshi »

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #104
tintor wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AGI is not needed for self-driving. None of what is mentioned above is a deal-breaker for self-driving car service: - lidar at night works just fine - plenty of cities with no or very little snow - construction zones: blacklisting, remote monitoring & manual mapping, detection of cones, barriers, re-painted lanes - self-driving cars with 360 degree view and plenty of patience and no distraction are safer for bicyclis…

Self-driving cars may be safer than manually driven cars in certain contexts. What's missing from AI is reliability. It's brittle, it works well in some situations and not at all in others. Which is a problem, because you can never be sure how well it's working for you. There's no anti-Dunning-Kruger-function to say "I'm sorry Dave, I can't handle this, you should take over" - partly because that's not something you…

Unfortunately any AI systems will encounter the verification dilemma, the more powerful an AI system becomes, the less verifiable it would be.

Re: The BS-Industrial Complex of Phony A.I.

#113

Post by AstralStorm »

patrick5415 wrote: post #106
tintor wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AGI is not needed for self-driving. None of what is mentioned above is a deal-breaker for self-driving car service: - lidar at night works just fine - plenty of cities with no or very little snow - construction zones: blacklisting, remote monitoring & manual mapping, detection of cones, barriers, re-painted lanes - self-driving cars with 360 degree view and plenty of patience and no distraction are safer for bicyclis…

>- lidar at night works just fine at night Yes, let’s rely on a single sensor. > - plenty of cities with no or very little snow But plenty of city have plenty of snow. So perhaps not a deal breaker in a limited set of circumstances. > - construction zones: blacklisting, remote monitoring & manual mapping, detection of cones, barriers, re-painted lanes Why should we add to already high construction costs just because…

You also have night vision and radar to detect metal objects. Plus sound which is still barely utilized besides Doppler.

Ultimately humans cannot match the senses of an automated car, the problem is in processing and integrating. Which we are pretty far away from solving in a general case.

Re: The BS-Industrial Complex of Phony A.I.

#114

Post by AstralStorm »

yonkshi wrote: post #112
TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Self-driving cars may be safer than manually driven cars in certain contexts. What's missing from AI is reliability. It's brittle, it works well in some situations and not at all in others. Which is a problem, because you can never be sure how well it's working for you. There's no anti-Dunning-Kruger-function to say "I'm sorry Dave, I can't handle this, you should take over" - partly because that's not something you…

Unfortunately any AI systems will encounter the verification dilemma, the more powerful an AI system becomes, the less verifiable it would be.

Verification is easy, just like with humans. It's called a driver's license. And since the AI does not tire and can probably be sped up, you can put it through hundreds of thousands of hours of driving quickly in a good simulator with adversarial and normal situations, then rate it at various tasks. Just like we should do with human drivers, but fail to.

Explanation is harder. But we probably shouldn't care, even in courts people cannot often explain what and why they did while driving, or they just lie. The thing is, for liability purposes you have to ensure it is not a series defect and that a good human driver would not be able to handle it

Re: The BS-Industrial Complex of Phony A.I.

#115

Post by walterstucco »

AstralStorm wrote: post #109
lsc wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Is consciousness a necessary component for AGI, though? I always thought so. Like, without volition, it's just a really good natural language tool, and not a general intelligence. What would an artificial general intelligence without consciousness look like to you?

A really efficient slave. Essentially it does not get creative and is ultimately predictable, even in failure modes. It would also have no subconscious drives to do unexpected things. Capitalistic dream.

You don't need coscience to be creative.

You don't even need it to be free.

Are bacteria slaves?

Re: The BS-Industrial Complex of Phony A.I.

#116

Post by NeedMoreTea »

lkrubner wrote: post #34

I've been collecting examples of where the ads that I see are based on extremely simple algorithms of the type that could have easily been supported 30 years ago, and yet I keep reading articles that suggest that the advertising industry is deploying sophisticated tools to target ads to me. I wrote about this recently: ------------------------- Despite much talk about Machine Learning and AI improving advertising res…

Matches my experience.

I'm reminded of 80s and 90s sales lead phone lists - those used to be marketed as precision means to reach your choice of age, job-level, city, income etc. I once worked for a company that tried a few of these, from allegedly fresh, first generation data. They were universally crap, with the same errors and copies of everyone else's wildly wrong and obsolete garbage. Lists priced per record. Aha!

Adtech is burning down the web and everyone's CPU with all that precise tracking and ML targeting that tells them nothing. Priced per click. How surprising. When Google and Facebook opened some of their profiles to be looked at, maybe 5 years or so back, Google got every major thought about me wrong - my gender, my age, my interests. As it had with most in the office. The whole myth around precision seems no more than a marketing fairy tale to sell ads and justify tracking, very badly.

Peak for advertising being useful was very early web with static page ads, simple keyword ads on search, and the odd site sponsorship. Oh, and "customers also bought" on Amazon, that worked well for books and CDs, but doesn't work at all for the 499 other categories they now sell.

These days I block everything - JS, uBlock, PiHole. I think there's 10 or 20 sites allowed a little JS, and the odd reluctant exception for bloody hateful reCaptcha. The web's speed is lovely again. Haven't seen a web ad for years - except the odd one or two at work.

Re: The BS-Industrial Complex of Phony A.I.

#117

Post by [deleted] »

atoav wrote: post #73

At the Biennale in Venice (one of the most important art shows there is) I saw a work which looked like this: There was a metal frame holding two glas plates with ventian sediment inbetween (sand, soil, mud). In the center there was another metal frame which formed a hole. There also were to PCB boards with ATMEGA micro controllers. In the text the artist claimed she controlled the biome of the soil with an AI using…

[deleted]

Re: The BS-Industrial Complex of Phony A.I.

#120

Post by cm2187 »

tintor wrote: post #72
dreamcompiler wrote: post #32

This happened right before the first AI Winter in the late 80s: AI (in the form of expert systems) solved a number of hard problems and was hyped as being able to solve every problem. Reality set in when we figured out: 1. It didn't scale and 2. Getting 80% of the problem solved was easy, but getting that last 20% was very, very hard. Maybe several orders of magnitude harder than the first 80%. Nowadays we don't seem…

AGI is not needed for self-driving. None of what is mentioned above is a deal-breaker for self-driving car service: - lidar at night works just fine - plenty of cities with no or very little snow - construction zones: blacklisting, remote monitoring & manual mapping, detection of cones, barriers, re-painted lanes - self-driving cars with 360 degree view and plenty of patience and no distraction are safer for bicyclis…

> plenty of cities with no or very little snow

But what happens that rare day it snows? Hundreds of deads? Cars get recalled for much less than that.

Post reply on HN