111–120 of 144 posts
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Incorrect. The tariffs are costing Chinese businesses and the government greatly. There is some other benefit to this that isn't explained by negotiation tactics. Although I cannot rule out a total misread of Trump by China, due to poor analysis, intelligence or misinformation.
Yeah, I guess the same tactic didn't work for North Korea, right? Oh, wait..
I think this is a very strange development. I'm a bit surprised they would backtrack at all. Rather in the past they've agreed to various regulations and laws and ... just not enacted or simply enacted and not followed them. That last part being the real question in all these details, does it matter if a deal gets made anyway? If anything the traditional route would have allowed the POTUS to declare victory and every…
They're hoping for a democratic administration in 2020 to negotiate with.
Trump, if anything, may have shown you can call out China and do things and ... the sky doesn't fall.
I don't doubt that it is possible that China's leadership feels something will change, I'm not so sure they get what they want.
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The import tariffs are paid by the people inside the importing nation. A US import tax on Chinese goods is a tax on American consumers and manufacturers. The way to tax China itself would be an export tax on money bound to China, including the transfers of immobile or intangible assets to Chinese nationals or corporations via domestic exchanges or brokerages--and including the cash value of transferred intellectual p…
> US import tax on Chinese goods is a tax on American consumers and manufacturers. And a regressive tax at that, as it will affect poor people more compared to the better off.
I suspect Xi wants this dispute to continue for internal Chinese reasons. The tariffs impact different sectors and regions in China differently. It may be continued tariffs are reducing overcapacity in a manner that allows Xi to save face internally. It could be the tarrifs are breaking the back of powerful exporting provinces (eg. Jiagnsu) and helping Xi consolidate power. It may also be the case that things need to…
China pushing back publicly (rather than making a deal and then ... simply not following through) against the US doesn't play well in the US as far as getting someone they want elected. Americans hurting economically are the folks cheering on Trump to some extent (well a vocal portion) and aren't likely to back a deal that isn't perceived to be favorable.
If the administration in China is playing an internal game, that makes a lot more sense than trying a potentially very counterproductive play in the US.
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I don't know if the depiction here displays all the nuances that's being described: (Minor edit: I want to emphasize I'm not trying to challenge for any political chargement, even though this is a politically charged area. I'm mostly interested because this is drastically different from my understanding, and believe this is an educated viewpoint from different sources that I lack in my life. I'm looking to be appropr…
1. It’s not that leaving Afghanistan (and Iraq, and Syria) doesn’t have a single downside. But I am very much in favor of getting out anyway. We can’t afford to keep spending on the order of $2.5 trillion dollars for a part of the world which is increasingly irrelevant as the US has become oil rich and indeed the world’s biggest oil producer — achieved under Trump by the way. Trump is very much anti-interventionist a…
This is some intense shilling. For better or worse, the trend of US oil production just continued under Trump.
https://www.macrotrends.net/2562/us-crude-oil-production-his...
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1. It’s not that leaving Afghanistan (and Iraq, and Syria) doesn’t have a single downside. But I am very much in favor of getting out anyway. We can’t afford to keep spending on the order of $2.5 trillion dollars for a part of the world which is increasingly irrelevant as the US has become oil rich and indeed the world’s biggest oil producer — achieved under Trump by the way. Trump is very much anti-interventionist a…
> the US has become oil rich and indeed the world’s biggest oil producer — achieved under Trump by the way This is some intense shilling. For better or worse, the trend of US oil production just continued under Trump. https://www.macrotrends.net/2562/us-crude-oil-production-his...
Obviously the US produced oil before Trump. But oil production has increased remarkably in the last couple years, and support for expanded drilling access and pipelines is a part of that. Agreed, for better or worse. It’s hardly controversial that Trump is pro domestic oil production. Just look at Bolton’s comments at the recent Arctic summit!
Oil could increase more under a Trump presidency than any other in history. Certainly under a barrel/mo basis if not also as a percentage increase YoY.
Your cited graph is hardly definitive. A long period of stagnation followed by hypergrowth, reconciliation in 2015, and then more hypergrowth.
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It bans taxes on "articles exported". Banknotes, shares of stocks, bonds, title to real property--these are arguably not "articles". You couldn't tax a crate of polypropylene combs going from Chicago to Shenzhen. You might be able to tax the sale of 100 shares of stock in Acme Unbreakable Combs, Inc. to Chan Jingwei of Shenzhen on the Nasdaq exchange. Maybe tax the transfer of technical plans and patent rights for a…
Is there any caselaw that takes that view?
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Another way to wipe out a history of past trade imbalances would be to announce the retirement of the domestic currency, citing counterfeiting or hacking, hyperinflation, or whatever else that may sound plausible. You then allow only your own nationals to exchange old money for new money. In order to avoid losing all of the value of their old money, foreign holders would have to buy something from a domestic person,…
That sounds like a great way to lose reserve currency status immediately.
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There are very real problems with how China treats foreign companies (intellectual theft, requirements to partner with Chinese companies and many more). I'm happy they get addressed. However, Trump completely misrepresents the problem and the impact of tariffs. The negotiations clearly are tackling the right issues, yet here he is talking about trade deficits as some kind of theft and tariffs as a straight up win lik…
His style of talking is to use simple terms even to the extent of sounding stupid to let the messages go across clearly. Trade deficits being neutral or slight bad is a niche view by a some economists. Most people view trade deficits as bad, rightly or wrongly. The word deficit, loss, and inbalance all have bad connotation. And the loss is huge, adding to a dramatic effect. He's trying to justify his action to his vo…
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They're hoping for a democratic administration in 2020 to negotiate with.
Another year and a half is a long time to make your people suffer. And a lot of the supply chains that moved out of China might not come back. Waiting is a hell of a gamble.