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If San Francisco is so great, why is everyone I love leaving?

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Re: If San Francisco is so great, why is everyone I love leaving?

#111
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As an outside it became apparent that moving to SF/SV would be a challenge around ten years ago. There are a number of post on HN from "back in the day" that discusses this topic e.g: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=170719 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=860913 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=236853 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1255718

9-10 years is about right. 2005, I had a one bedroom for $1700, and in 2008 I moved into a studio on Twin Peaks for $1300/month. Both were high but still affordable. By 2011, a 2 bedroom in SOMA was $3000/month, and by 2014 it was $4500/month. This coincides with when tech companies started popping up in SF, instead of South Bay where they traditionally went to.

Are you sure it's tech companies? In 2006 I was paying (part of) $2800 for a generous sized two bedroom apartment in the East Village of Manhattan. At the beginning of 2010 when I moved out the landlord wanted $3500. Today it's going for for $4400.

That's a 25% increase in 3 years and then another 25% increase over the next 9 years. And there was no, or at least only minor, tech company factor in NYC.

Re: If San Francisco is so great, why is everyone I love leaving?

#112
post #56

This article is really spot on. It feels like we're in a big speculative mess in Bay Area. The home-price-to-income ratio in SJ is about 20x [1] Anything over 3x used to be considered "risky". Let's say in Costal Areas it was be allowed to double, then you have 6x. That's good, not great, but ok. And that's about what pricy DC and NY cost. SJ is 20x. How is this possibly sustainable? Not even going to get into the du…

You might be underestimating the amount of money involved. California is 5th largest world economy, some of it is in the Bay and SF.

Re: If San Francisco is so great, why is everyone I love leaving?

#113
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As exciting as this is to see. It's hard for me to watch Portland change into a different city. I think the hardest aspect right now is the amount of trash that is being thrown aside in the roads, parks, and greenways. I was born and raised in this area and it's been tough for me to witness this beautiful city being treated that way. If you want to help clean up Portland, I strongly recommend volunteering with the SO…

Every city changes. That’s the nature of time.

The only constant in life is change. --Heraclitus

Re: If San Francisco is so great, why is everyone I love leaving?

#114
post #24

> There is an apocalyptic amount of people moving into California, and no one blames them for the overcrowding and the shifting culture. But when too many Californians leave California and settle in, say, Portland, they are blamed for ruining the place by way of simply being themselves. Part of this is where the money comes from. Poorer/lower-middle-class people (mostly) move into California, to work these jobs under…

Do you have any stats on the wealth distribution of people leaving California? This really is a situation where more demographic information would be helpful, since an average wouldn't tell you as much. Do the wealthy Californians tend to be old, retirees? Young with kids? Are half the Californians leaving well off, with other half largely penniless? Your assertion that "when Californians leave, they leave wealthy" m…

It's quite possible that the 'California wealthy' are a minority of transplants (say 20-40%), but that could still move real estate markets significantly. Looking at [1], it seems like the Portland housing market does about 20-40k sales per year. And it sounds like Portland has been growing by about 30-40k people per year (that is total, not just Californians). So if 25% of those folks are jumping into the real estate market, it can probably have a big impact on the supply/demand. Housing is pretty slow to respond to supply/demand imbalances so even a small imbalance can swing the market.

[1] https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Portland-Oregon/market-tr...

Re: If San Francisco is so great, why is everyone I love leaving?

#115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"To bring it back to housing" ellides the important point GP made. They even acknowledged the excitement and advantages of growth, but pointed out some of the cost as well. If you want to advocate, don't blind yourself to those of us sensitive to the literal trash, noise, and other side-effects of growth. With wealth comes illth - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illth Your personal utility function may make you less se…

Throwaway accounts are ok for sensitive information, but please don't create them routinely. On HN, users should have an identity that others can relate to. What sensitive information is disclosed in this comment? One off identities are a limited community resource. If they are used too routinely this becomes a de facto anonymous message board. We know what fully anonymous message boards look like and they aren't pre…

As exciting as this thread is to read, it's hard for me to watch its subject change into a different one. I think the hardest aspect right now is the number of meta-level comments that are being added in replies to replies.

Re: If San Francisco is so great, why is everyone I love leaving?

#116
I rarely post here but fuck it. I was born in Redwood City. I went to school briefly at UCB and graduated from UCD. I spent the entirety of my life in this small stretch of land. I immediately started working as an engineer in tech as soon as I graduated but now had to deal with this new reality the author describes. I was involved in the music and art scene in the Bay Area and almost everyone has left. The few that remained kind of despised me for working in technology. It was also a weird disconnect to hang out with people and everyone knows that I easily make four times the amount they make while living at my Mom's house. I just didn't feel myself around them anymore. I didn't really care to make friends with tons of engineers. I spent my day with engineers (albeit with very few even born in America let alone the Bay Area) and I wasn't rushing to spend time with tons of more engineers on my free time. The shows and parties dried up and I became more and more depressed wondering what am I going to do with my life?

Everyone here is posting in the typical Hacker News way of trying to rationalize the situation. If only we build or built more housing, etc. It doesn't matter. More housing wasn't built and even if more housing comes quickly (which it won't), the area has changed and there isn't really an artistic or cultural zeitgeist to attract artists like there used to be here. Of course, there is Oakland but unfortunately I didn't fit in there because politics and identity seemed to be everything people cared about with their art and it wasn't interesting or fun. I have no idea if Oakland continues to change or not.

I ended up leaving. I sold almost everything I owned and moved to Israel. I wanted to go somewhere radically different than California. My only other options were LA and NYC. I wanted to be near a Jewish population because that is important to me. It's nice to see how different life is outside of the Bay Area. While Tel Aviv definitely has it's fair share of technology, I still see people walking on the street with guitars and there is a vibrant night life here which is nice.

There are of course drawbacks too. The Bay Area really is a special place. I understand what the author is getting at in the piece. There is an implicit cost to these people. If your entire area becomes engineers, data scientists, and product managers, I am sorry but the area is fucking boring and uninspiring. It also becomes a bubble where no one is actually solving anything anymore or creating anything inspiring.

Edit: Another huge thing I forgot to mention is the commute. The commute here is fucking INSANE. We make an obscene amount of money and ride on these screeching subways with junkies and schizophrenics. We get off and walk over corpses on the street to get to our beautiful offices that all look similar with reclaimed wood and steel and program. I couldn't rationalize the absurdity of it all anymore. I couldn't deal with the time and energy cost of commuting. I lived in Redwood City and drove to BART and then BARTed into SF. When I lived in Berkeley, the commute was just as bad. If I was lucky to stand on a Transbay bus, it was tolerable but BART took so long. If I decided to move to Oakland, I would have to deal with an even longer BART where we are packed in like cattle. It is insane to me. The first thing I did was get a sublet where I could walk to work.

Re: If San Francisco is so great, why is everyone I love leaving?

#117
It's not great. Everything interesting has moved to the East Bay or out of state. All that left is high rents. I've already got plans to leave in April. The only thing good that remains is a lot of the most interesting tech jobs at the larger companies like Facebook, Google, Uber, AirBnB, etc. However even those have a shelf-life because it's only a matter of time (5-10 years is my guess) because those are no longer the exciting companies anymore. If SF starts losing the future unicorns to other markets, it's only a matter of time until the golden goose dies.

Word on the street is that several unicorns are planning more and more engineering growth outside the SF Bay Area in 2019 and beyond.

Re: If San Francisco is so great, why is everyone I love leaving?

#119

Taking a macro view on it and ignoring individual circumstances, I believe San Francisco is slowly bleeding itself out which may be a net positive for society (and I would apply this to my home NYC as well). I don’t believe it’s a good idea for our society long term to have ALL of the nation’s leading X (technologists, bankers, engineers) in one city or state. As painful as it is to see your community leave, taking a…

We will still have ALL of the nation's leading engineers in one city / area, but no one else will be able to afford to live there. Even non-leading engineers will be forced to move out, and will no longer be able to learn from the leading engineers, lowering national productivity.

I don't know why you assume the leading engineers will move. As a "leading engineer", I don't see why I would take a $200-300k/year paycut and a less interesting job just to leave San Francisco, even though it pains me to see what the local politicians here are doing to their people.

Re: If San Francisco is so great, why is everyone I love leaving?

#120
post #116

I rarely post here but fuck it. I was born in Redwood City. I went to school briefly at UCB and graduated from UCD. I spent the entirety of my life in this small stretch of land. I immediately started working as an engineer in tech as soon as I graduated but now had to deal with this new reality the author describes. I was involved in the music and art scene in the Bay Area and almost everyone has left. The few that…

What I understood from your post is you don’t want an area full of product managers, data scientists, and software people, but you’re very content in an area that replaces them with Jewish people?

I think everything you said is entirely subjective. I would personally rather be surrounded by techies than people of a particular race or religion, as long as these people come from different genders, races, ethnicities, or beliefs. To me, that’s much better than being near a large Jewish population or Arab population or white population or people of ${preferred_religion} here.

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