Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable • Hacker News Board

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#111

Post by alttab » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 9:20 PM UTC

rohit2412 wrote: post #104

alttab wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should always be investing because timing the market is a fools errand. The question is how much?

Isn't that timing too? Or it is wise when you allocate 5/95 split to stock/bond but fool's errand when it is 0/100

Consistently invest an amount that you are comfortable with. It's called dollar cost averaging. I'd personally keep dry powder for when the market is far beyond the standard deviation of historical records. 2008 and 2018 would both be years this is true. Shorting though is only for the brave or stupid.

Personally, I put a certain amount in every quarter.

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#112

Post by nine_k » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 9:23 PM UTC

Symmetry wrote: post #106

harshulpandav wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And with this mindset most people will not take any action until the big guys have taken an action. The timing could be the predicted time frame. But it is only too late by then and middle and lower class suffer. Top 1% controls around 40% of America's wealth.

Small players who try to time the market are going to lose out to the big players. You seriously should not try unless you feel like donating a portion of your retirement savings to Goldman and Sachs bonuses. Just invest not thinking you know the future and let the Jötunn try to outsmart each other.

(Nit-picking: jötnar, since it's plural. But I like the image.)

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#113

Post by rootusrootus » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 9:32 PM UTC

nemo44x wrote: post #70

rootusrootus wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lots of factors in play, you'd need to bet correctly that the recession will actually affect prices that way in your area. Also, the yield curves just inverted within the last week, and the average time-to-recession from that point is 12 months. So you may want to wait longer than a year. Or... just buy something and be done with it, as long as it fits your budget and your income is stable, it's just housing and in t…

There was a slight inversion but it wasn't on 2-year and 10-year. The recession indicator is from when the 2 and 10-year yield inverts and yes, it's about a year lag.

My bad, I thought 2/10 had inverted earlier this week. Maybe it was just for a short time during the day. Still, they are very close right now.

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#114

Post by maxxxxx » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 9:52 PM UTC

jamestimmins wrote: post #49

Things that keep me up at night as a software contractor/freelancer: if there's a recession, are contractors the first to go? One counter-argument is that contractors can be a cheaper way for companies to build products (since it's not full time), which might mean companies favor contractors. On the other hand, companies who are reluctant to lay off full-time staff may start by canceling contract relationships.

I got crushed in 2008-2010 when I was freelancer. There simply was no budget for anything in the companies I had worked with.

I am sure there is some business angle for freelancers to do well in a recession but I can't come up with one.

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#115

Post by maxxxxx » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 9:53 PM UTC

briandear wrote: post #67

iscrewyou wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would assume contractors are first to go. Work moves in house. In house staff gets cut. The remaining staff gets to work on what the contractor did and what the employees that left did. The company is not beholden to contractors as much as they are to their left over employees. Everybody has got to pay bill. The company will usually look out for their employees.

A company will usually look out for those generating the most value. Which is the point of a company in the first place.

It's more about budgets and survival politics. The people who are setting the budgets have no idea who is generating most value.

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#116

Post by rv-de » Fri, Dec 07, 2018, 7:31 AM UTC

Symmetry wrote: post #32

If you could know a recession was inevitable some time soon from publicly available information then that recession wouldn't happen in the predicted time frame. Everybody would see it coming, take their money out of the market, and it would happen instantly.

Many banks saw 2008 coming. Now the fundamental reason for this inevitable breakdown was also very lucrative at the same time. This meant every bank would try to stay in the game for as long as possible because quitting too soon would have them fall behind.

In the end you get this game where two or more cars are speeding towards an edge and who breaks first loses.

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#117

Post by gnopgnip » Fri, Dec 07, 2018, 7:18 PM UTC

interfixus wrote: post #90

gnopgnip wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since 1980, after adjusting for inflation Gold lost 50%, the S&P 500 is up 600%, or 1700% with reinvesting dividends in the S&P 500.

Completely beside the point. The question was safety, not potential profitability. Also, please paint the full picture: How many percent of all 1980 investments retain halt their value or more today? My first guess would be: A small minority.

Looking at safety, investing in individual stocks or precious metals like gold is a poor choice. Index funds, or bonds have much less volatility.

To paint a full picture, how many people who invested in physical gold still have it, and how many had it stolen or lost it, or were scammed buying something other than real gold?

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#118

Post by clubm8 » Sat, Dec 08, 2018, 12:45 AM UTC

malvosenior wrote: post #2

If this is true, where is the best place to invest 10k-100k USD today?

If you have a good long term strategy you shouldn't be worried about timing the market. I invest in a few ETFs, 80/20 stock to bond ratio, a mix of domestic USA / international.

I probably won't make massive gains but in the long run I'll make ~5% steady.

I think if you value steady returns over wild swings you can do well with Vanguard ETFs - the low overhead offsets the les returns than day trading / active buying and selling

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#119

Post by rwhitman » Sat, Dec 08, 2018, 2:00 AM UTC

jamestimmins wrote: post #105

rwhitman wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was a freelance dev contractor in the 2008/2009 financial crisis. To what you said above, both can be true. But it depends on the client's business. I got completely crushed last time. But my clients were primarily in travel and fashion/lifestyle which both got hit hard early. And I was trying to bootstrap a social media startup at the time, which was also in travel. So I got destroyed. Typically agencies and freel…

"diversify your client portfolio" This is a really interesting thought that I hadn't considered. I always hear to diversify your investment portfolio, but the thought of diversifying your client list is fascinating. It makes a lot of sense though.

Honestly "diversify" is not something I had ever considered before the last recession, and it runs contrary to most popular advice in consulting around finding a niche, but it becomes very apparent after you've weathered the ups and downs of the consulting business over a long time period.

If you look at any of the major consulting firms (ex: Accenture) that have lasted decades, you'll see that they have their fingers in many different unrelated areas and industries. "Niche" in the short term is a great way to build up clients, but stick narrowly to a niche over too long a time scale, and it becomes an anchor.

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#120

Post by ryansmccoy » Sun, Dec 09, 2018, 7:49 PM UTC

Only a portion of the yield curve inverted, and based on recent history, its predictive ability for the US economy is not what it used to be.

IMO, The important indicator to keep an eye on is earnings growth, which in the most recent quarter was (from what I recall) sales growth +8% and EPS growth +25%.

One headwind to keep lookout for next year will be tough comparison because of the tax cuts.

Also, like others have mentioned, doomsayers are a dime a dozen. Personally, I like to see what people with skin in the game have to say/are doing to their portfolio allocations.