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Elastic files for an IPO

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Re: Elastic files for an IPO

#111
We pay them money but I have to say.. there are aspects to the model which freak me out -Like the relative paucity of good R hooks, the abortive attempt at an interface via dplyr basically died. Right now, its curl. Its http sucking and no real way past pagination.

Or, how hard it can be to intuit the json you need, as a naieve user. Back porting from kibana is silly.

Or how easily you can deploy a naieve cluster which hangs bigtime on large data. This thing is like PostGres and ZFS: you really can't fake it, you have to understand it.

I see good potential in Elastic training

Re: Elastic files for an IPO

#113
post #71
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you aren't incurring losses, it means you are throwing away potential income by growing too slowly, and inviting competitors to take up the slack. In case of a market or tech hiccup, you might find yourself without "sufficient cash flow", and collapse, but that would be the investors' problem. The investors are assumed to be able to absorb the loss and disappointment without undue discomfort, and so they are. Risk…

I understand a lot of silicon valley is funded in this manner right now but please re-read this command and realize how silly it is. It's proper to say that taking a loss for long term gain is sometimes the right measured decision but saying that failing to lose money constantly is a failure is just ridiculous.

There might be a reason why you are not asked to manage a growing business.

Re: Elastic files for an IPO

#114
post #108

Elastic is a company I’ve been following from the start when they just had elasticsearch opensource project. Watching this company grow to this point has been inspirational. I really want to meet / talk to the people who made this company. They made open source work. I’m happy to use their products, filebeat, kibana, elasticsearch, and their cloud offering has been top notch. They got a lot of things right. Now elast…

i would be surprised if they were supporting sql as query language. do you mean by using spark sql?

Actually, they really do support SQL as a query language : https://www.elastic.co/en/blog/an-introduction-to-elasticsea...

Re: Elastic files for an IPO

#115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd be surprised if even 20% of companies' accounts payable process is sufficient. The point is that AWS removes friction and Elastic chose to add friction. They're chasing big Enterprise hard and it doesn't seem to be working out.

It’s a business decision of course. Forge your own path or be beholden to your revenue model dictated by AWS. Big Enterprise will not require billing through AWS (disclaimer: employed at a large enterprise, buying ~$900k software license currently). They’ll have an accounts payable department, a procurement process, and someone to cut a check or ACH to Elastic monthly/annually.

It wasn't the way they did billing, it was just an option. One they've removed. I get it, I'm just saying it cost them some money.

Re: Elastic files for an IPO

#116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can largely agree with the last statement. The problem I find with the hosted services is that people just tend to throw data at it without really knowing anything about cluster/node/shard performance. This typically blows up in their face at some point and even though Elastic Cloud has nice sliders in place for spend-more-money, they still have to go through the rebalancing pains (if they didn't write-lock the clu…

> X-pack ... there are free alternatives for all of its good features could you list a few?

LMGTFY, https://sematext.com/blog/x-pack-alternatives/

Can't recommend Sentinl & SearchGuard enough.

Re: Elastic files for an IPO

#117
post #37

This is an extremely solid financial statement. $150M in revenue, growing ~100% per year; I'd project a valuation between $3B and $4B. Twilio, Mulesoft, and MongoDB are probably the best comparables here -- open-source and dev-tools based SaaS IPOs. All of these were very successful at IPO and afterwards, and even compared to these, Elastic looks great. * They're growing at almost 100% per year which is incredible. T…

Hemorhaging money is not justified by the fact that 'others did it'.

WeWork and Uber can justify it by pointing out unit costs in stable markets, and say 'look we are profitable there, so all of our losses are due to growth'.

Elastic cannot say the same.

In fact Twilio and Mongo have also been hemorhaging money since the start, and it's going to take a hell of a lot of growth, then massive profitability for them to break even.

Venture Captial is now back to the dot-com bubble game of 'who's going to be the fool holding the bag' - basically, raise a pile of money, give away that money for free by selling at a massive loss, and then get naive retail investors to buy into the myth.

What if I raised $100M, bought some lumber, and sold it at a 50% discount to builders, gosh, I'd have a lot of customers! and then did an IPO -> look at the growth!

Twitter is what, 10 years old now?

They just reported their first profitable quarter ever! And guess what, userbase is shrinking!

They're billions in the hole, i.e. billions away from breaking even - they are a massive net financial loss for investors overall; the trick is of course to be an early investor (make money) and not a later investor (dupe).

This game is not designed, it's just a natural dynamic of a market with bad information and or dupes.

Just like the financial crash of 2008 could not happened if dumb German and Japanese banks were not buying up crap bundles thereby enabling local American banks to re-capitalize and go out again and make more bad loans (i.e. the system would have stopped because banks would have quickly run out of capital unable to sell their first batch of crap mortgages) ... in the same way, this VC game would not happen without rube investors somewhere who will actually pay a fortune for a stock like Twitter. There are many more reasons for this obviously.

Unfortunately, when there is shadiness, low-interest rates, not market interventions etc. - the name of the game is 'leverage' - not 'innovation' really. So it makes much more sense to buy your way into a market, than build yourself into it.

And by the way, this is not to take anything away from Twilio or Mongo as products - that's entirely separate issue. Maybe they are great, maybe they are crap, but we don't know because they are being given away at massive discounts so it's very hard to tell.

Sadly, in shady game of leverage, often 'it's the only way' because if you don't - someone else will. WeWork for example is leverage to the max with 0 wiggle room for risk. If there is a market correction and tenancy drops in any major market, they are wiped. Same for any company that's dependent on crazy valuations.

Companies going IPO while losing tons of money, without clear path to profitability ... is not necessarily a good sign.

Re: Elastic files for an IPO

#118
post #96
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair, both MongoDB and Elasticsearch have had serious issues as pointed out via the Jepsen tests. https://aphyr.com/posts/317-jepsen-elasticsearch https://aphyr.com/posts/323-jepsen-elasticsearch-1-5-0 Though, all those issues have been fixed for both MongoDB and Elasticsearch so it's not necessarily fair to judge them based off past performance. https://www.elastic.co/guide/en/elasticsearch/resiliency/cur... h…

Those Jepsen are not that useful, I can point to you Postgres issues where it would corrupt the DB, does it means you shoudn't use Postgres?

They're very useful - these posts compare actual functionality with the project's documentation.

Re: Elastic files for an IPO

#119
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i would be surprised if they were supporting sql as query language. do you mean by using spark sql?

Actually, they really do support SQL as a query language : https://www.elastic.co/en/blog/an-introduction-to-elasticsea...

There's even a JDBC driver on the commercial tier

Re: Elastic files for an IPO

#120
post #11
post #5

Is it just me, or does 33 pages of risk factors seem pretty high?

I used to put together deal documents similar to this when I worked in finance. It was literally my job to think about potential risks and then list them out. "Hey boss, this investment has possible earthquake risk, but that seems very remote; do I have to put that in?" "Yeah, put it in. No one reads the document anyway unless it goes to court and in that case, you can get dinged for leaving out stupid risk factors,…

Just read somewhere about research somebody had made regarding the risk statements (established) companies put out. The result was that statements getting changed correlated with stock price taking a hit in near term.

Did not read the study itself. My explanation would be that since companies are not changing these for fun, they are probably changing them because they see some previously unexpected risk possibly manifesting itself and want to cover their back.

Unfortunately, I can't find the pointer to the study or the article.

Edit: Found the article, I guess this was posted to HN: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/09/the-sec... (search for NetApp to find the part about the study)

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