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Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

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Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#111

Post by toomuchtodo »

Fins wrote: post #102
toomuchtodo wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All automakers receive EV subsidies. Why are non-Tesla automakers so bad at building EVs if they receive the same subsidy Tesla does?

Tesla's are the largest, though, since they have largest batteries. Tesla builds EVs, that's the only thing they sort of can do (of course they can't actually build them at profit, but that's a problem for Tesla's shareholders). Others will build EVs when they can be profitably sold, because it isn't their only business.

> Others will build EVs when they can be profitably sold, because it isn't their only business.

Tesla's margins are the highest in the industry for their vehicles. Legacy automakers don't want to innovate and cannablize their own business, which is why they cannot succeed.

If you want to sell like Tesla does, and get the level of subsidies they do, sell vehicles that people want and will pay for. There's a reason people would rather wait years for a Model 3 then buy a Bolt, i3, or other half-attempt at an EV by a legacy automaker.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#112

Post by qaq »

jacquesm wrote: post #54
planetjones wrote: post #13

I used to be one of the people who poked fun at Musk and suggested people short Tesla stock (as the valuation is crazy compared to the production and penetration numbers). But I am no longer that person. I read his biography (Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future) and this is a guy who genuinely wants to change things on a macro scale: opening up space, changing transportation. He is also a g…

Reading a book doesn't change fundamentals. Tesla is heading for a rough time, I sincerely hope they make it through and hope that Musk will not come to regret making that stupid joke.

On the scale of Tesla's own history how would you rate that rough time? E.g. is it more rough vs 1st year of Tesla 2nd year? 3rd Year? How rough is it for people who actually pulled through all the challenges they faced from the founding till now. I think people are overestimating the "rough times" part. Musk and Tesla have a ton of good will that no other automaker has and they can leverage that in a rough situation.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#113

Post by jacquesm »

xutopia wrote: post #97
jacquesm wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reading a book doesn't change fundamentals. Tesla is heading for a rough time, I sincerely hope they make it through and hope that Musk will not come to regret making that stupid joke.

How are they headed for hard times? I'm genuinely uneducated on the matter and want to know more.

Tesla is attempting to change too much at once. New model, new (highly automated) production line and adding a degree of self driving over and beyond what is currently present in other cars, probably will run out of cash somewhere this year.

Any one of those would be a major challenge and a major achievement to lick. While I totally admire Elon Musk for challenging all these things at once you have to wonder about the wisdom of it all, especially when taking into account that he has another major project (SpaceX) that would normally be enough to tax any CEO.

Furthermore they decided to roll Solar City into Tesla which makes Tesla even more encumbered with debt. I get why he did it but I firmly believe that cross-tying losing businesses and winning businesses at that level is a failure prone strategy, it is gambling rather than managing.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#114

Post by JepZ »

Well, I think many people don't want to understand that ambitious targets are most likely to be missed. So missing the target is actually what is going to happen and the real question is by how much.

So some might ask, why setting a goal that is unlikely to be reached and not simply set a realistic target?

Changing the automotive world isn't realistic. So if you would go with a realistic target you could have shutdown Tesla years ago. Nevertheless, there is an actual risk involved in setting the targets too high as burning people and investors can cause real problems.

Yet, I think it is best to judge Tesla by their actual performance and not so much by the fact that they missed their ambitious targets.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#115

Post by dsfyu404ed »

gwbas1c wrote: post #24
ckastner wrote: post #5

> The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T. Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive. They're way behind the goals they set for themselves, but instead of measurin…

I never expected Tesla to deliver the Model 3 on time. I just "delayed" my order to AWD because my Leaf lease is up before I'll get the 2WD Tesla. (Also, because my wife wants a minivan and Chrysler now offers a plugin minivan.) Remember, no car in history ever had 500,000 pre-orders. No car even came close. If anyone expected Tesla to ramp up to that kind of production overnight, they are delusional. Besides, when I…

You don't need to pre-order if you expect the thing you want to buy to be readily available in enough volume to meet demand. There's millions of fleet trucks out there on a fixed age/mileage replacement schedule. Nobody is rushing to pre-order F150s because they know they'll be available when they want them.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#116

Post by saas_co_de »

ckastner wrote: post #5

> The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T. Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive. They're way behind the goals they set for themselves, but instead of measurin…

It really reeks of desperation. They are frantically doing anything they can to keep investor confidence but all of their tricks are so worn out and tired now and their debt load and burn rate is so much higher that it isn't going to change anything.

They will go bankrupt. 100%. Maybe they can arrange some buy out or merger to try and save face, but doubtful.

Given their level of candor I am sure their accounting is an Enron style sh-t-show of epic proportions.

That is almost certainly why they had to buy SolarCity. Other than paying off Musk and SpaceX loans they also couldn't afford to have the books opened in bankruptcy court because it would destroy Musk's reputation.

It is coming though.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#117

Post by ksherlock »

ckastner wrote: post #5

> The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T. Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive. They're way behind the goals they set for themselves, but instead of measurin…

“Winners compare their achievements with their goals, while losers compare their achievements with those of other people” -- Nido Qubein

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#118

Post by jacquesm »

qaq wrote: post #112
jacquesm wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reading a book doesn't change fundamentals. Tesla is heading for a rough time, I sincerely hope they make it through and hope that Musk will not come to regret making that stupid joke.

On the scale of Tesla's own history how would you rate that rough time? E.g. is it more rough vs 1st year of Tesla 2nd year? 3rd Year? How rough is it for people who actually pulled through all the challenges they faced from the founding till now. I think people are overestimating the "rough times" part. Musk and Tesla have a ton of good will that no other automaker has and they can leverage that in a rough situation…

There are a lot of things coming together that each individually would have been a serious challenge, to have them all at once and within 6 months of each other is pretty rough. Even so, I would not bet against Musk, he has a habit of making it through somehow. There is a book with a character in it called Reid Malenfant, Musk reminds me of that character.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_(Baxter_novel)

You get to chose: you're part of the bulldozer or you'll end up part of the highway. Even so, it will not be easy to do right by Tesla and not to ignore SpaceX, and that's before going into the fact that Tesla is now effectively subsidizing Solar City.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#119

Post by uniformlyrandom »

planetjones wrote: post #13

I used to be one of the people who poked fun at Musk and suggested people short Tesla stock (as the valuation is crazy compared to the production and penetration numbers). But I am no longer that person. I read his biography (Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future) and this is a guy who genuinely wants to change things on a macro scale: opening up space, changing transportation. He is also a g…

I think there is a high probability that some of his risk-taking initiatives backfire at some point in time, but I cannot deny that this guy is moving several industries forward at much faster pace than said industries would move on their own.

This observation is not going to affect my investment decisions though. I will not go as far as shorting TSLA ('the market can stay irrational longer than any investor can stay solvent'), but I would not buy TSLA either.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#120

Post by mjamesaustin »

saas_co_de wrote: post #116
ckastner wrote: post #5

> The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T. Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive. They're way behind the goals they set for themselves, but instead of measurin…

It really reeks of desperation. They are frantically doing anything they can to keep investor confidence but all of their tricks are so worn out and tired now and their debt load and burn rate is so much higher that it isn't going to change anything. They will go bankrupt. 100%. Maybe they can arrange some buy out or merger to try and save face, but doubtful. Given their level of candor I am sure their accounting is…

If you're 100% sure, then you should dump your life savings into shorting Tesla. You'll make a fortune.
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