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Goldman Sachs Plans to Clear Bitcoin Futures When They Go Live

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Re: Goldman Sachs Plans to Clear Bitcoin Futures When They Go Live

#111
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This should give the big Wall St banks the ability to muck with crypto prices however they choose, The current status quo is that large bitcoin holders can muck with crypto prices however they choose.

Futures exchanges will have to buy large sums of underlying assets (one reason for the recent spike.) So, in the end a lot of exchanges will be some of the largest crypto holders.

The currently proposed CME and CBOE futures are cash settled. No actual bitcoin is involved. Neither the buyers or sellers of the futures, nor any other entities involved, will need to buy/sell/hold any bitcoin.

Re: Goldman Sachs Plans to Clear Bitcoin Futures When They Go Live

#112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everything about Bitcoin is driven by emergent consensus. This includes the mining - there is no underlying fundamental mathematical entity that is being discovered or exhausted when people are “mining”. The only reason there is said to be a limited number of Bitcoin available is, well... because everyone says so! All Bitcoin clients agree that it is correct and proper to award yourself 25BTC when you mine a block. S…

> Everything about Bitcoin is driven by emergent consensus. ...which is a fancy word for a speculative bubble.

Well, yes, just like the emergent consensus that US dollars are worth real goods and services.

Nothing is “worth” something unless people say it is. There are plenty of problems with Bitcoin as a currency, but the fact that its value is derived from speculation is not one of them. All currency is like this.

Re: Goldman Sachs Plans to Clear Bitcoin Futures When They Go Live

#113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not saying they'd be 1-to-1 off the bat. I'm asking do forks have their own supply, and are no longer limited by the supply of the previous coin? If so, my question is when BTC runs out of things to mine a) why would miners that needed to process transactions even stick around hashing and not just go to the fork where they could actually make money? b) and doesn't this just mean technically you could create widel…

Everything about Bitcoin is driven by emergent consensus. This includes the mining - there is no underlying fundamental mathematical entity that is being discovered or exhausted when people are “mining”. The only reason there is said to be a limited number of Bitcoin available is, well... because everyone says so! All Bitcoin clients agree that it is correct and proper to award yourself 25BTC when you mine a block. S…

How does this square with, for instance, the Bitcoin Cash fork? Bitcoin Cash fulfills most of the "attack" as you've described, but it still trades as money.

Re: Goldman Sachs Plans to Clear Bitcoin Futures When They Go Live

#114
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah. Or worse, you have orders that are filled, but because they are market orders and the market has disappeared, they aren't filled at anywhere close to the price you expected. At my first job I had a project that involved looking at the actual order book for various stocks on the NASDAQ. There's always some asshole who puts in a limit buy for $0.01 on the hopes that if liquidity dries up, they'll be the best bid…

>There's always some asshole who puts in a limit buy for $0.01 on the hopes that if liquidity dries up, they'll be the best bid and get the stock for literal pennies on the dollar ... Because your stop is actually a market order, you take whatever price the market gives you, which is...$0.01. Why doesn't everyone do this constantly if it's a possibility? Low chance of such a windfall, but what's the downside?

In addition to the sibling comment, there's a non-trivial risk that, when the crash happens, it's because of a legitimate, non-local drop in value, and you're stuck holding something worthless.

Re: Goldman Sachs Plans to Clear Bitcoin Futures When They Go Live

#115
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's where Goldman would net off trades between their own clients, effectively acting as an exchange for their clients using the prices on the official exchange. They say in the article they won't act as market-makers or hold their own positions. That means they won't perform their usual capacity for clients, where they act as middleman between the exchange and their own clients. ie they won't make a price for their…

> It's where Goldman would net off trades between their own clients This is internalization, which is different from clearing.

Hmm, in trading, internalization is where a broker would fill a buy order from its own inventory instead of acting as the middle man it normally is. So not sure why that idea has been brought up.

To clarify, Goldmans are offering to buy* futures their clients want to sell, if they can line up one of their other clients/counterparties to buy it from Goldmans at the same time. Goldmans is acting only as an intermediary or a broker. The key idea for clients is that if you want to sell, you want to get a quick and good bid from your trading partner. Goldmans are not offering to do that. They won’t make a price straight away for their client, they will only broker trades, so they will need to call up others to find out what their price is, hold them on the line and then offer the price to the client. At the end of the trading day, all Goldmans will do is net off trades between their own counterparties. Goldman clients expect the company usually to act as market maker for futures trades. As a former sell-side trader, what that means is I can make my own prices for the client, buy their futures off them, hold them, and later in the day I can sell them myself, possibly to the exchange. I hold my own position, I assume my own risk, on a short term/daily basis. This is better for the client because they can get an immediate market, they don’t have to wait for me to call someone else.

In a way Goldmans are saying they won’t trade against their own clients. Given their history with the CDOs (think The Big Short), and given how opaque the underlying Bitcoin market is, this seems to me to be a covert reassurance that they won’t be working against their clients.

* or sell obviously.

Re: Goldman Sachs Plans to Clear Bitcoin Futures When They Go Live

#116
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's where Goldman would net off trades between their own clients This is internalization, which is different from clearing.

Hmm, in trading, internalization is where a broker would fill a buy order from its own inventory instead of acting as the middle man it normally is. So not sure why that idea has been brought up. To clarify, Goldmans are offering to buy* futures their clients want to sell, if they can line up one of their other clients/counterparties to buy it from Goldmans at the same time. Goldmans is acting only as an intermediary…

The important thing about internalization in this context isn't who takes the other side, but the fact that the trade gets done before it even reaches an exchange. You're right that it usually refers to a market maker taking the other side as principal off exchange.

> To clarify, Goldmans are offering to buy* futures their clients want to sell, if they can line up one of their other clients/counterparties to buy it from Goldmans at the same time.

This is not what clearing means. You're talking about execution. They'll still clear the trades even if you execute away. There's not really anything else I can add to this discussion.

An imperfect analogy is that you're buying the futures with a credit card and Goldman will step in and pay the bill if you can't.

Re: Goldman Sachs Plans to Clear Bitcoin Futures When They Go Live

#117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everything about Bitcoin is driven by emergent consensus. This includes the mining - there is no underlying fundamental mathematical entity that is being discovered or exhausted when people are “mining”. The only reason there is said to be a limited number of Bitcoin available is, well... because everyone says so! All Bitcoin clients agree that it is correct and proper to award yourself 25BTC when you mine a block. S…

How does this square with, for instance, the Bitcoin Cash fork? Bitcoin Cash fulfills most of the "attack" as you've described, but it still trades as money.

The social consensus, in this age of the world works in such a way that one of the few (but not sole) ways in which you can convince people to go along with your attack/fork is to put forward technical (including economic) arguments about why the rules should be done differently and ask those who agree with you to lend you their hashing power.

Re: Goldman Sachs Plans to Clear Bitcoin Futures When They Go Live

#118
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've always laughed watching the cultist end of the crypto community up on their imaginary moral high horses talking about how much "better" crypto was than banks and regulated markets.. given the fact that crypto markets basically represent all of the shady shit manipulators in regulated markets would love to do but can't.

+1. It's laughable. Segregated accounts, position limits, circuit breakers, margin limits, spreads across duration to reduce risk, etc are all GOOD things. The counter party risk in the exchanges right now is HUGE in the bitcoin world. Pass on that.

Very well said, Both of these comments , capture the essence of STATE of Crypto trading unregulated markets of today .

> I've always laughed watching the cultist end of the crypto community up on their imaginary moral high horses talking about how much "better" crypto was than banks and regulated markets..

> given the fact that crypto markets basically represent all of the shady shit manipulators in regulated markets would love to do but can't. reply

> +1. It's laughable. Segregated accounts, position limits, circuit breakers, margin limits, spreads across duration to reduce risk, etc are all GOOD things. The counter party risk in the exchanges right now is HUGE in the bitcoin world. Pass on that.

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