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American Equity

blog.samaltman.com

111–120 of 552 posts

Re: American Equity

#111
post #94
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would you name the book "Equal Is Unfair" if you wanted to explore the topic in a deep way?

It is a provocative claim that I think the book succeeds in showing to be true. It is a worthwhile book and, even if you disagree with it, I think you'll find it intellectually stimulating. If you think you'll read it, I'll happily buy you a copy, just PM me.

Sure, equal is unfair. But that's not what people who are concerned about rising inequality are asking for. They mostly want inequality to stop from rising. So what's the point of showing that equal is unfair?

Re: American Equity

#112

People already have a share in the GDP. That's what it is, the total domestic product, the sum of all the little parts. The problem is not that people don't have share in it (and this goes for every country, not just for the USA), but that they have a disproportionate share in it. Bill Gates' (to name a random American citizen) has a far larger share in the GDP than most other Americans. If you want to solve that rai…

+1. And whence the money for the share? Taxes. So this is just a UBI. This, like all UBI proposals, seems like a way to dress up a massive tax hike: "but you'll be getting your share of GDP!". The only way to get me to like a UBI is to have UBI replace absolutely all (and I do mean all) welfare programs so that we can just haggle at every election over one headline UBI number + necessary taxes. And the initial UBI an…

Bragging that you are ready for downvotes is like wearing a codpiece to the beach.

Anyway, talk of UBI in the US is pretty silly when you look at how many people would rather not have the government do things like help people access health care.

Re: American Equity

#113
post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It did not. No company I know of seriously implements it. I'm consulting for a startup now. I suggested they implement it and got laughed at.

Enough do that you can build a solid portfolio of startups. https://wefunder.com/ (YC W2013) has many to choose from, and they make the mechanics of investing easy (it is a substantial amount of work if you invest directly).

Not the same choices as an accredited investor. Several(most) startups do not have any presence there.

Re: American Equity

#114
I have a better (may be slightly insane) idea. Open up startup investing (VC rounds especially) to a wider audience through some kind of index fund. Retirement and pension funds, endowments etc are too roundabout a way of actually benefitting from the windfall in the now.

While this is obviously risky, in the 2/10 chance where the startup IPOs or gets acquired, everyone stands to benefit a big deal.

I recently heard about the case of a private school which was able to invest $15K in one of $SNAP's funding rounds (the VC partner was a parent at the school). At IPO, the school netted $50M on this investment. This school was already well off but I can imagine what this would do for a lot of public schools if this option were available to them.

Re: American Equity

#115
GDP is obviously the wrong metric in a lot of ways; the only advantage is that it can be relatively easily measured. What you really want is some measure of surplus economic capacity.

I don’t like the direct results of this policy (taxation, presumably new and higher taxation, specifically to redistribute income and wealth).

However, the second and third order effects are interesting — our immigration policies, assuming the amounts being paid out are meaningful (unlikely at the start) would look a lot more like Canada/NZ — there would be a strong bias toward immigrants who will be net contributors (young, educated, healthy, culturally compatible), vs family unification or politically chosen.

With a correct metric, people would push to reduce military expenditure to the minimum required for actual defense, and to spend the money efficiently; same with other government programs, assuming $300B saved on defense could be turned into direct payments, etc.

Re: American Equity

#116
The solutions are easy....nothing new under the sun...start here:

https://deanbaker.net/images/stories/documents/Rigged.pdf

Chapter 9 Rewriting the Narrative on Economic Policy

The standard framing of economic debates divides the world into two schools. On the one hand, conservatives want to leave things to the market and have a minimal role for government. Liberals see a large role for government in alleviating poverty, reducing inequality, and correcting other perceived ill-effects of market outcomes. This book argues that this framing is fundamentally wrong. The point is that we don’t have “market outcomes” that we can decide whether to interfere with or not. Government policy shapes market outcomes. It determines aggregate levels of output and employment, which in turn affect the bargaining power of different groups of workers. Government policy structures financial markets, and the policy giving the industry special protections allows for some individuals to get enormously rich. Government policy determines the extent to which individuals can claim ownership of technology and how much they can profit from it. Government policy sets up corporate governance structures that let top management enrich itself at the expense of shareholders. And government policy determines whether highly paid professionals enjoy special protection from foreign and domestic competition.

Pretending that the distribution of income and wealth that results from a long set of policy decisions is somehow the natural workings of the market is not a serious position. It might be politically convenient for conservatives who want to lock inequality in place. It is a more politically compelling position to argue that we should not interfere with market outcomes than to argue for a system that is deliberately structured to make some people very rich while leaving others in poverty. Pretending that distributional outcomes are just the workings of the market is convenient for any beneficiaries of this inequality, even those who consider themselves liberal. They can feel entitled to their prosperity by virtue of being winners in the market, yet sufficiently benevolent to share some of their wealth with the less fortunate. For this reason, they may also find it useful to pretend that we have a set of market outcomes not determined by policy decisions.

But we should not structure our understanding of the economy around political convenience. There is no way of escaping the fact that levels of output and employment are determined by policy, that the length and strength of patent and copyright monopolies are determined by policy, and that the rules of corporate governance are determined by policy. The people who would treat these and other policy decisions determining the distribution of income as somehow given are not being honest. We can debate the merits of a policy, but there is no policy-free option out there.

This may be discomforting to people who want to believe that we have a set of market outcomes that we can fall back upon, but this is the real world. If we want to be serious, we have to get used to it.

Re: American Equity

#117
post #29
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Bill Gates' (to name a random American citizen) has a far larger share in the GDP than most other Americans. If you want to solve that raise your taxes on the rich and lift up those that are at the lowest end of the scale. That will have a lot more effect than some fiction where you get to do a bunch of make-believe bookkeeping. Or go a step further do what nobody has the balls to do: tax wealth That's what all the…

>do what nobody has the balls to do: tax wealth Just to clarify, nobody in the US is doing this, but it's not unheard of elsewhere. For example, Norway has a wealth tax of about 0.85% and there are some other examples at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_tax#Current_examples .

[deleted]

Re: American Equity

#118
post #71
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Bill Gates' (to name a random American citizen) has a far larger share in the GDP than most other Americans. If you want to solve that raise your taxes on the rich and lift up those that are at the lowest end of the scale. That will have a lot more effect than some fiction where you get to do a bunch of make-believe bookkeeping. Or go a step further do what nobody has the balls to do: tax wealth That's what all the…

We do tax wealth in a very limited way in the form of real estate property taxes. Though I would note that it hits the middle class and poor more disproportionately than the extremely wealthy. And I'd note that the tax cuts in front of congress propose making that scheme land even harder on the middle class by eliminating or curtailing the state/local tax (including property tax) exemptions from federal taxes.

Inheritance tax also taxes wealth, but it does so rarely and again the rich tend to find ways to avoid this.

The problem with many "wealth" taxes is that they end up missing the top 1% and hurting the people who are building a business.

Eg inheritance tax does a fantastic job of just screwing over family businesses that on paper are worth say $7mm+ because on paper the kids who inherit the business now owe taxes on maybe $2mm (I think the first $5mm is tax free w/ inheritance), but selling any of the business to pay the taxes would often destroy the business.

And I'm not talking about massive businesses like Walmart - I mean businesses like a large-ish family farm where just the land, equipment, animals, etc are all worth $7mm+ on paper, even if the farm doesn't produce massive profits.

Re: American Equity

#119
post #89
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Bill Gates' (to name a random American citizen) has a far larger share in the GDP than most other Americans. If you want to solve that raise your taxes on the rich and lift up those that are at the lowest end of the scale. I don't understand why this is something people believe needs "solved". Did you build Microsoft?

> Did you build Microsoft? Yes. I purchased several of their products, thereby increasing the capitalization of Microsoft. I expect you intended the answer to be "No," implying that Bill Gates (and a few others) built Microsoft. However, that rests on a specific understanding of ownership and causality that not everyone shares.

Would Bill Gates have worked so hard (presumably) if he didn't have that specific understanding of ownership and casuality? Isn't that type of motivation and incentive necessary, to grind through the obstacles?

Re: American Equity

#120
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Bill Gates' (to name a random American citizen) has a far larger share in the GDP than most other Americans. If you want to solve that raise your taxes on the rich and lift up those that are at the lowest end of the scale. I don't understand why this is something people believe needs "solved". Did you build Microsoft?

Bill Gates is part of a system that built Microsoft. The system needs to be maintained if it's going to continue to produce outcomes like that.

And... if we would prefer different outcomes?
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