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The Crash of ’87, from the Wall Street Players Who Lived It

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Re: The Crash of ’87, from the Wall Street Players Who Lived It

#111

My fake portfolio as a kid was heavily IBM weighted. I think it was 120 or 126/share before the crash. This is one of the reasons I got a degree in finance (and economics). I wanted to know what to do with my money if I ever had any.

Sounds like a strange logic to me... Is that not like wanting to become a MD just so you can "know what to do" if you ever get sick?

Re: The Crash of ’87, from the Wall Street Players Who Lived It

#112
post #97

Let's say there is a big crash coming, where would you put your money for a safe bet and for a speculative bet (and please don't say bitcoin) ? During the crash of 87, it seems like you could still get a good fixed income yield. Parking it today for 1.5% just doesn't seem that valuable.

There are more people looking to invest more money today, so supply/demand means you won't get as good a return. In '87 access to capital was more valuable, so you could get paid more for it.

Thats one thing that hasnt been studied enough, I suspect. Huge amounts of capital from 401ks alone may have more effect on the market valuations than actual value creation. There is just so much money chasing a return, increasing constantly.

Re: The Crash of ’87, from the Wall Street Players Who Lived It

#113

Let's say there is a big crash coming, where would you put your money for a safe bet and for a speculative bet (and please don't say bitcoin) ? During the crash of 87, it seems like you could still get a good fixed income yield. Parking it today for 1.5% just doesn't seem that valuable.

Safe bet: cash. Speculative bet: put options.

It seems to me that holding the stock but buying put options is not speculative; it's merely buying insurance. Why do you regard it as speculative?

Or were you referring to selling put options?

Re: The Crash of ’87, from the Wall Street Players Who Lived It

#114

My fake portfolio as a kid was heavily IBM weighted. I think it was 120 or 126/share before the crash. This is one of the reasons I got a degree in finance (and economics). I wanted to know what to do with my money if I ever had any.

Sounds like a strange logic to me... Is that not like wanting to become a MD just so you can "know what to do" if you ever get sick?

I bet a lot of doctors became doctors for exactly that reason.

Re: The Crash of ’87, from the Wall Street Players Who Lived It

#115

Crashes are actually great for the middle class. The value of the dollar increases as prices come down. Homes, land, property, etc all become cheaper during crashes. This "bull market" is the actual "crash." All its doing is depleting the value of your money

I don't see how they're great for the "middle class". A crash is generally bad for anyone who's invested. I could only see it being good for people who have cash on hand after the crash.

Re: The Crash of ’87, from the Wall Street Players Who Lived It

#117

Crashes are actually great for the middle class. The value of the dollar increases as prices come down. Homes, land, property, etc all become cheaper during crashes. This "bull market" is the actual "crash." All its doing is depleting the value of your money

> Crashes are actually great for the middle class In perhaps one narrow sense. The middle class people who lose their jobs and savings, or whose welfare depends on economic activity (i.e., almost everyone) such as others buying, selling and investing in things don't do so well. Perhaps there is some data on how well the middle class did in 1929, 1988, 2008, etc.

It's also ignoring the amount of middle-class savings that are destroyed during the crash...

The ONLY middle class individuals that benefit from a crash are those with the cash to buy in at the depreciated prices.

Re: The Crash of ’87, from the Wall Street Players Who Lived It

#118
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If there's an IPO of two otherwise identical companies, which one would you pay more for: - company A who's shares will be traded in a deep and liquid market, so you can get rid of them whenever you need money (eg for unforeseen circumstances) - company B who's shares can not be sold easily afterwards? If the answer is A, you see how the secondary market can help the first issuer reap a higher price, thus helping the…

A company's management cares about share price (and sometimes dividends) because that's what the owners of the company (shareholders) care about. If the directors of a publicly traded company don't care about share price, then the shareholders will vote in new management that does. At the same time, share price isn't something management can directly change. They do so by running the business well so that it generate…

That's basically the answer I arrived at as well. Yes.

For me the topic's related to the grandparent comment's question about 'why should the company (or its management) care about the stock market'?

Re: The Crash of ’87, from the Wall Street Players Who Lived It

#119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"but they could (in theory at least)", uhm, what theory is this? No seriously I would like to hear the theoretical basis for this assertion (though I think you are totally wrong as well).

Well, one theory is that the valuation of bitcoin is largely unrelated to the systematic overvaluation of companies that ostensibly would be the reason behind a crash. Thus when the market start revisiting its value of stocks, this doesn't affect the value of cryptocurrencies.

Yeah, cryptocurrencies have their own overvaluation issues.

Re: The Crash of ’87, from the Wall Street Players Who Lived It

#120

Eurodollars are U.S. dollars deposited in commercial banks outside the United States and futures tied to the interest rates paid on them are among the most-traded contracts in the world. Even back then, they had crazy derivatives.

Its not crazy at all. A eurodollar contract gives a purer valuation of the dollar since it doesn't need to consider the added cost depository requirements.

Then like now, they are only crazy if you don't understand them.

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