The prevalence of close calls on the Soviet side, and their likely existence on the American side too, suggests thst the MAD system is robust to false positives.
On a time scale of about 50 years.
Stanislav Petrov, a Soviet officer who averted nuclear war, has died
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Re: Stanislav Petrov, a Soviet officer who averted nuclear war, has died
#112The prevalence of close calls on the Soviet side, and their likely existence on the American side too, suggests thst the MAD system is robust to false positives.
Can you quantify "robust"?
The fact that these incidents have happened and armageddon has not yet happened suggests that the probability of accidental nuclear war is relatively low. But how low? Maybe the odds are one in a million per year. Maybe the odds are one in a hundred per year. I'd say that both numbers are compatible with the publicly known facts, but result in wildly different conclusions. The former number suggests that nuclear war is a minor worry and we should concentrate elsewhere. The latter suggests that human civilization is very likely to be destroyed in this way, and we should do everything possible to avert it.
Re: Stanislav Petrov, a Soviet officer who averted nuclear war, has died
#113So, how many Western countries will erect a statue for him?
And in those countries, how many generations will pass before the mob demands the statue be torn down?
Do not sully this man by attempting to associate him with people whose only notable achievement was fighting for the right to own other people.
Re: Stanislav Petrov, a Soviet officer who averted nuclear war, has died
#114Earlier quoted context omitted.
And in those countries, how many generations will pass before the mob demands the statue be torn down?
Do not sully this man by attempting to associate him with people whose only notable achievement was fighting for the right to own other people.
Do you need both hands to hold such a broad brush?
Re: Stanislav Petrov, a Soviet officer who averted nuclear war, has died
#115Re: Stanislav Petrov, a Soviet officer who averted nuclear war, has died
#116rt.com is a russian tv station funded by the government. It is a proganda outlet for Russia. one can assume kgb involvement and vetting of their stories.
so this story seems benign enough, but bear in mind the source and consider what their motivations might be.
Re: Stanislav Petrov, a Soviet officer who averted nuclear war, has died
#117It may be that our biggest collective luck was that the alarm happened at the time subcolonel Petrov was on duty. He was an analyst, maybe even chief analyst of the unit, he authored the playbook for the officers on duty; being on duty wasn't his main job (source: https://cont.ws/@adviser095/717098 ), he would go on duty from time to time. Due to his knowledge of the early warning system he was more likely to cast do…
> 1) The reported starts (5 in total) happened from a single base in the US which didn't make sense from the military point of view: the US would have put themselves at a grave disadvantage by sending just a few missiles There was an interview with Petrov (in the 90s or 00s) when he spoke about this point, and the interviewer said that in 1983, the US plans for a preemptive strike started with a "beheading strike", i…
> started with a "beheading strike"
Wow, so given Petrov's response, this plan might have actually worked. Those clever generals. (Insert emoticon of me being horrified right now..)
Re: Stanislav Petrov, a Soviet officer who averted nuclear war, has died
#118When "just doing my job" saves the world. “My cozy armchair felt like a red-hot frying pan and my legs went limp. I felt like I couldn't even stand up. That's how nervous I was when I was taking this decision,” he told RT. How well would any of us have done in that situation? It's tempting to think that we'd have said no, don't launch. But picture yourself as a military commander, raised in that lifestyle. Then add t…
> How well would any of us have done in that situation? It's tempting to think that we'd have said no, don't launch. But picture yourself as a military commander, raised in that lifestyle. Then add the natural inclination to freeze up and make bad choices under pressure.
Worse. Much worse. Imagine 1 further thought at the back of your head: Even if I get this absolutely right and avert WW3, there's an 80% chance I get shot and my family ends up in Siberia. My only way out of this is lucking out about the mood of my whole chain of command, up to and including the paranoid tyrant on top, who may worry I am creating precedent for not following orders to the letter. This may be how my life ends, and that's if I successfully avoid a nuclear holocaust.
Re: Stanislav Petrov, a Soviet officer who averted nuclear war, has died
#119Earlier quoted context omitted.
/r/slatestarcodex if I didn't typo on my phone. It's an interesting sub, sometimes a thought provoking article bubbles up to my front-page which is always a bit of a joy, Tho sometimes a bit of garbage bubbles up too.
I don't think /r/slatestarcodex, and especially the blog it's related to, is that niche among HN readers :)
I wasn't aware slatestarcodex is popular on HN, that's quite interesting news to me...
Re: Stanislav Petrov, a Soviet officer who averted nuclear war, has died
#120rt.com is a russian tv station funded by the government. It is a proganda outlet for Russia. one can assume kgb involvement and vetting of their stories. so this story seems benign enough, but bear in mind the source and consider what their motivations might be. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RT_(TV_network)
Similar to the BBC for England or many countries which have state television.