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Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

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Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#111
> I made a chatbot that rolled dice, and it was constantly criticized for being "broken" because four 3's would come up in a row.

> These accusations would come up even though they (all being computer science majors) know it's possible (although unlikely) for these events to happen. They just don't trust the black box.

I am reminded of the approach that GamesByEmail.com used to address this criticism: http://www.gamesbyemail.com/News/DiceOMatic

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#112

A great application for this is in randomizing playlists. My friends, who are also CS grads and should know better, have often complained that their MP3 players, CD carousels, etc play the same music too often claiming that the random is broken, when a song repeating in a short period of time or other songs never playing is what you would expect from a truly random selection. Using this algorithm, you'd be sure to he…

I had a few issues with Spotify doing this. I even saw a post where an engineer claimed it was all psychological, but I was definitely getting repeats when I had queued up a large amount of music (e.g. over 40 hours.) I think they only shuffle a certain percentage of the playlist and forget which songs have already been played after a while.

I manually shuffle some playlists now. One nice thing about the desktop client is the clipboard integration. You can press cmd+a to highlight all the songs, cmd+c to copy, and then paste all the song URLs into a text editor. Then I used "permute lines" in Sublime Text to shuffle them, then cmd+c and cmd+v to paste the songs back into Spotify.

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#115
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apple has a patent[0] for a fall-protection system that will rotate the phone while it's in the air. If something like that could be made small enough to fit into a die, that would work. The biggest challenge will probably be the power supply. I'm sure that a processor, accelerometer, and the Taptic Engine (the thing that provides vibration and haptic feedback in Apple devices) are all small enough to fit in a typica…

Oh my god, you totally could use reaction wheels. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_6p-1J551Y

That's really clever - I've been wondering how small and quiet you could make such a device. Can you imagine how cool it would be to have one of those attached to a VR controller? You'd be able to get real (albeit slight) resistance when you interacted with things.

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#117
I wonder if this could be / has been applied to loot tables in video games in order to keep the player interested in playing.

I've designed a few loot tables and the Gambler's Fallacy is a criticism I often have to deal with when people don't understand why a given item hasn't dropped despite them having killed a mob enough times to statistically warrant it.

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#118
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You could just use a deck of cards with numbers on them. That's the simplest way to do "Gambler's Fallacy Dice" IRL. For example, there's a popular Catan expansion pack that replaces the dice with a deck of cards with numbers on them for just this reason, because in Catan each roll of 2D6 represents different regions of the map paying out so if a number never comes up it never pays out.

I've never played in real life with the deck, but I first came across this version on a software version of Catan I had (I think Xbox?). I really enjoyed it and my guess is that in real life it adds a substantial angle to negotiating placement of the robber. In particular, bribing people to put/not put the robber in a given location - if the deck is 7-heavy or your good squares are already drawn, no big deal.

[deleted]

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#119

There's a probability model called the Pólya urn where you imagine an urns containing numbered balls (colored balls in a typical example, but to draw the comparison with dice we can say they're numbered 1-6), and every time you draw a ball of a certain color, you put back more balls according to some rule. A few probability distributions can be expressed in terms of a Pólya urn, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P%C3…

Covering the plane randomly but without clusters is actually quite useful in simulations. The "random" numbers that do that are often call "low-discrepancy sequence".

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#120
post #67

There's a probability model called the Pólya urn where you imagine an urns containing numbered balls (colored balls in a typical example, but to draw the comparison with dice we can say they're numbered 1-6), and every time you draw a ball of a certain color, you put back more balls according to some rule. A few probability distributions can be expressed in terms of a Pólya urn, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P%C3…

Thank you! Sometimes the hardest thing is knowing what to google!

Another algorithm along these lines is the "shuffle bag" algorithm.
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