Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

bloomberg.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

111–120 of 267 posts

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#111

Post by oska »

D_Alex wrote: post #86
oska wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gigafactory 3: Europe Gigafactory 4: Asia Gigafactory 5: Where? Another one in the US?

Australia. Please. We have the land, we have the lithium, we have the sunshine and we have a massive car market - 1.2 million cars sold in 2016. We also have a good automotive manufacturing base... about to go into idle mode. Aussie federal and state governments have been very willing to support local manufacturing, and I'm sure they'd love to hear from Tesla.

I was going to suggest Australia as a possible contender for the 5th factory however while we have some supportive state governments we also have an incredibly unsupportive federal government that is hostile to electric vehicles and renewable energy and storage. And I think that's obvious to anyone looking on from outside. So while this current federal government is in power it's one more opportunity we're going to miss (and be left behind on).

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#112

Post by Reason077 »

applecore wrote: post #93
mabbo wrote: post #5

People get upset by the 'superhero' status of Elon Musk. Nerds everywhere worship the guy, buy his cars, watch his SpaceX launches. But honestly, let him have it, I say. He's earning it. He's taking huge risks and succeeding where others weren't willing to try.

Elon Musk's businesses have benefited from billions in federal and state government subsidies and low-interest loan programs over the years. He's taking huge risks because other people are footing the bill.

Elon Musk's businesses have benefited from billions in federal and state government subsidies and low-interest loan programs over the years.

Billions in loans? Tesla received a $465M loan from the department of energy in 2010, which they paid back in full, with interest, by 2013.

As for subsidies (ZEV credits, EV incentives, state tax credits, etc)? Tesla receives absolutely nothing that isn't available to all US car manufacturers.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#113

Post by mstachowiak »

mdasen wrote: post #97
paulpauper wrote: post #20

People who lose money shorting Tesla are losing their shirts for the same reason as those who shorted Amazon: cash flow + growth matters more than profitability, PE ratios, or EPS. Tesla's car business is cash flow positive but the quarterly losses are due to infrastructure investments. This is how finance can be more subtle than meets the eye. Tesla's car business is very profitable: Tesla also reported an automotiv…

Shorting seems to often be about the short-term prospects of the stock. Long term, Tesla looks like it will be a reasonable company. But will it justify its stock price? Tesla is a $45B company right now. Toyota is $188B (4.1x more valuable), VW is $78B (1.7x), GM is $58B (1.3x), Ford is $51B (1.1x), Nissan is $42B (0.9x), Fiat Chrysler is $17B (0.4x), Honda is $58B (1.3x), BMW is $56B (1.2x), Daimler is $79B (1.8x),…

I would propose viewing Tesla as an energy storage company, not a car company (JB and Elon both think of Tesla this way). The car is a battery on wheels, and the battery is the product. They're not trying to be the next BMW, and attempts to value them through this lense will miss the mark.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#114

Post by elsewhen »

mdasen wrote: post #97
paulpauper wrote: post #20

People who lose money shorting Tesla are losing their shirts for the same reason as those who shorted Amazon: cash flow + growth matters more than profitability, PE ratios, or EPS. Tesla's car business is cash flow positive but the quarterly losses are due to infrastructure investments. This is how finance can be more subtle than meets the eye. Tesla's car business is very profitable: Tesla also reported an automotiv…

Shorting seems to often be about the short-term prospects of the stock. Long term, Tesla looks like it will be a reasonable company. But will it justify its stock price? Tesla is a $45B company right now. Toyota is $188B (4.1x more valuable), VW is $78B (1.7x), GM is $58B (1.3x), Ford is $51B (1.1x), Nissan is $42B (0.9x), Fiat Chrysler is $17B (0.4x), Honda is $58B (1.3x), BMW is $56B (1.2x), Daimler is $79B (1.8x),…

the way tesla _could_ surpass toyota is branching out into adjacent industries. they are already showing a willingness to do that with battery-manufacture, powerwall, solar installations etc. this potential for increasing ambitiousness likely increases the multiple of TSLA stock.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#115

Post by taneq »

TrainedMonkey wrote: post #22
SaintGhurka wrote: post #7

Is it just me reading too much financial news or does "beats estimates" sound like it was better than estimates? Loss was 69 cents vs 53 cents expected. Revenues beat estimates, though.

They beat loss estimates because they spent $500m [0] on capex instead of $1000m [1]. Not sure if I buy "got better deals from suppliers" story, but it would be awesome if it was true. Most likely they've hit delays with suppliers. [0] Q4 2016 update from shareholder letter on http://ir.tesla.com/ [1] http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-capex-goal-means-1-bill...

I don't understand why capital expenditure is viewed as a loss. You spend $1mil on infrastructure, afterwards you have $1mil of infrastructure (which now should start earning you money) instead of $1mil of cash. H ow is that a loss?

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#116

Post by tbabb »

mstachowiak wrote: post #113
mdasen wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shorting seems to often be about the short-term prospects of the stock. Long term, Tesla looks like it will be a reasonable company. But will it justify its stock price? Tesla is a $45B company right now. Toyota is $188B (4.1x more valuable), VW is $78B (1.7x), GM is $58B (1.3x), Ford is $51B (1.1x), Nissan is $42B (0.9x), Fiat Chrysler is $17B (0.4x), Honda is $58B (1.3x), BMW is $56B (1.2x), Daimler is $79B (1.8x),…

I would propose viewing Tesla as an energy storage company, not a car company (JB and Elon both think of Tesla this way). The car is a battery on wheels, and the battery is the product. They're not trying to be the next BMW, and attempts to value them through this lense will miss the mark.

> I would propose viewing Tesla as an energy storage company

Yeah, I'd say it would not be unfair to compare future Tesla to a company like GE ($270B mkt cap).

Optimistic, but not irrational.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#117

Post by taneq »

oska wrote: post #111
D_Alex wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Australia. Please. We have the land, we have the lithium, we have the sunshine and we have a massive car market - 1.2 million cars sold in 2016. We also have a good automotive manufacturing base... about to go into idle mode. Aussie federal and state governments have been very willing to support local manufacturing, and I'm sure they'd love to hear from Tesla.

I was going to suggest Australia as a possible contender for the 5th factory however while we have some supportive state governments we also have an incredibly unsupportive federal government that is hostile to electric vehicles and renewable energy and storage. And I think that's obvious to anyone looking on from outside. So while this current federal government is in power it's one more opportunity we're going to m…

We also have an absolute ton of solar power on very cheap land, and our power grid is in a death spiral to the point where going off-grid is going to be a clear financial win in the next 10 years. By the time a new factory is up and running, this is gonna be a really good market for battery storage.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#118

Post by tbabb »

Reason077 wrote: post #105
mdasen wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shorting seems to often be about the short-term prospects of the stock. Long term, Tesla looks like it will be a reasonable company. But will it justify its stock price? Tesla is a $45B company right now. Toyota is $188B (4.1x more valuable), VW is $78B (1.7x), GM is $58B (1.3x), Ford is $51B (1.1x), Nissan is $42B (0.9x), Fiat Chrysler is $17B (0.4x), Honda is $58B (1.3x), BMW is $56B (1.2x), Daimler is $79B (1.8x),…

Tesla is a $45B company right now. Perhaps that sounds like a lot. But consider that Uber is valued at $68B.

Uber is probably overvalued.

But consider that future Tesla will probably be owning/running a service like Uber. Add to that grid storage, solar power installation (from which it makes interest on loans to the consumer), powerwalls, battery production for other industries (including possibly every other car manufacturer), and whatever else Tesla branches out into once those markets are established.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#119

Post by dingo_bat »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #48
Someone1234 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm glad that people look up to someone like that. What I am disappointed by is how his fans react to criticism. There's healthy respect and there's unhealthy worship. When you have a bunch of people who will get really upset due to any criticism that is on the worship side of the coin. Any community with voting arrows (HN/Reddit) suppresses anything negative said (no matter how supportable/well constructed the criti…

Huge fan boy here. I'm not saying he does no wrong; he's ruined his first, second, and third marriages. He's probably not around at all for his five kids. Its assuredly soul crushing (workload/expectation-wise, not mission, which makes a huge difference) working for him. But he's changing the world. So I give the guy wide latitude with my opinion. At least he's not yet another useless silicon valley billionaire. He i…

> He is the least terrible billionaire industrialist IMHO.

I'd say Bill gates still retains that title.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#120

Post by imron »

Someone1234 wrote: post #24
paulpauper wrote: post #20

People who lose money shorting Tesla are losing their shirts for the same reason as those who shorted Amazon: cash flow + growth matters more than profitability, PE ratios, or EPS. Tesla's car business is cash flow positive but the quarterly losses are due to infrastructure investments. This is how finance can be more subtle than meets the eye. Tesla's car business is very profitable: Tesla also reported an automotiv…

> People who lose money shorting Tesla are losing their shirts I don't follow. Tesla is down 1.4%. People who shorted Tesla made money today. Plus a lot of people made money shorting Amazon over Amazon's life. Shorting a stock has less to do with a company's business plan/success and more to do with predicting the market itself and how they'll respond to various quarterly results (and the likelihood of such results).…

> People who shorted Tesla made money today

Unless they shorted a month ago or earlier.

Post reply on HN