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Magic Leap is neither magic nor leaping

theregister.co.uk

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Re: Magic Leap is neither magic nor leaping

#111

Post by majewsky »

throwanem wrote: post #58
hacker_9 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While true this is really just a response to what the big companies have been doing for a long time. Some off the top of my head: MS Kinect trailer [1], and Hololens [2], also Ubisoft games with realistic graphics at E3 that were later downgraded [3]. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2qlHoxPioM [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aThCr0PsyuA [3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNter0oEYxc

I mean Watch Underscore Dogs was trash anyways, I get what you're saying but I almost don't even blame them for the E3 thing because how else were they going to polish that turd? ...and from the video I see that it's not just Watch Underscore Dogs by a long shot! It's weird to me that they keep pulling this nonsense, when amazing graphics are probably one of the biggest draws for Ubisoft Game. Maybe they're just bank…

Downvoted for insistence on nagging about the underscore.

Re: Magic Leap is neither magic nor leaping

#112

Post by majewsky »

jaypaulynice wrote: post #32

The problem is honesty isn't rewarded anymore. Someone working hard will be beaten by someone who tells all the fancy stuff...I know a lot of startups that raised millions, but their tech and growth is totally non-existent. I did some research and a lot of companies have little to no social media presence, yet are "growing" crazy. How do people find them? Add network effect and you get overly hyped stuff that don't d…

> The problem is honesty isn't rewarded anymore. Someone working hard will be beaten by someone who tells all the fancy stuff...

Wait. Are you talking about politics now? :)

Re: Magic Leap is neither magic nor leaping

#113

Post by throwanem »

majewsky wrote: post #111
throwanem wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean Watch Underscore Dogs was trash anyways, I get what you're saying but I almost don't even blame them for the E3 thing because how else were they going to polish that turd? ...and from the video I see that it's not just Watch Underscore Dogs by a long shot! It's weird to me that they keep pulling this nonsense, when amazing graphics are probably one of the biggest draws for Ubisoft Game. Maybe they're just bank…

Downvoted for insistence on nagging about the underscore.

Underscores qua underscores are not a problem. But the underscore in the name of Watch Underscore Dogs is worth calling out for the way it underscores the absurd degree of edgewank throughout the game.

Re: Magic Leap is neither magic nor leaping

#114

Post by new299 »

jayjay71 wrote: post #70
ryandamm wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I think the money raised is a vote of confidence from the investors -- and it's only a vote -- my point about "too big to fail" is actually more a sunk-cost argument. With that much funding, the worst-case glide path for Magic Leap might be to stumble along, sucking in continuation funding until it gets a product to market. (It's no Theranos.) To be clear, I'm not making predictions about ML specifically. I don…

How often do institutional investors fall prey to the sunk cost fallacy? If you don't meet your milestones, you're probably not getting more money from the same investors. VC's make a lot of mistakes, but throwing good money after bad seems pretty rare to me.

When developing a new basic technology the milestones are often vague, and they're generally not open to DD. So hitting milestones in taken on trust and open to interpretation quite often.

Sink cost doesn't work quite the same way. It's more that they evaluate the investment as good because someone else put in a bunch of money (and they expect know what they're doing/did good DD).

Re: Magic Leap is neither magic nor leaping

#115

Post by istorical »

Fricken wrote: post #92
ryandamm wrote: post #50

I think what's missing from this discussion is the demo is apparently really, really good. Google didn't put ~$500m, and Alibaba something like $800m, just on a whim, or some investment thesis. And everyone I've spoken to who's gotten the demo is a believer. I think this article suffers from an overly binary view of technology -- if it isn't market ready, it's vaporware. No, there's probably some real tech there (afo…

Facebook bought Oculus for 2 billion, and what were they buying there? Oculus had a prototype cobbled together using off the shelf parts by a teenager in his garage, a successful kickstarter campaign, and John Carmack jumped on board. And that made Oculus worth two thousand million dollars to Zuckerberg. The acquisition sent a strong signal, though. Shortly afterwards a bevy of competitors, big and small, started thr…

They had a lot more than that at the time of acquisition.

Re: Magic Leap is neither magic nor leaping

#116

Post by ggame »

CydeWeys wrote: post #87
ggame wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd hazard a bet that augmented reality already peaked with Pokémon Go.

Pokemon Go isn't real AR though, it's just a phone app that uses the device's camera. You need dedicated hardware to do real AR. I'm withholding judgment until I see that.

It mixes a virtual world with the real world; thus augmenting the real world. I would argue that a fine grain occlusion (individual pixels) vs coarse grain (movable display) isn't that big of a difference with immersion. Consider that we are immersed with our phones quite a bit already.

In addition the lack of 3D isn't that big of a deal given the brain fills in the details with other cues. E.g. People that go blind in one eye can adjust quite well to the lack of 3D.

I personally would love a HUD for my sporting activities; e.g. Skully. But my phone is perfectly fine as a daily driver.

Re: Magic Leap is neither magic nor leaping

#117

Post by ggame »

Too wrote: post #89
DonHopkins wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes you think that? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8J5BWL8oJY

For those of you who don't want to waste 6 minutes of your life: Magic Leap CEO Rony Abovitz trying to play rockstar by starting his talk with 4 minute silly buildup music, then he comes in wearing a space suit trying to look cool and staying silent for another 1 minute trying to buildup to something even more, then just repeats the word "fudge" 15 times accompanied by shitty punk music. Essentially it's just a very…

I look forward to seeing the parody in HBOs Silicon Valley

Re: Magic Leap is neither magic nor leaping

#118

Post by fuzzfactor »

DonHopkins wrote: post #30
grabcocque wrote: post #3

That these guys are a bunch of snake oil merchants has been obvious from day zero. Sometimes the overwhelming stench of bullshit is a little too difficult to ignore.

What makes you think that? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8J5BWL8oJY

Ringling College who is sharing the video with us, of course is an institution founded philanthropically in early Sarasota arising from earnings made by the Ringling Bros. Circus.

Long associated with Barnum & Bailey, this is the legendary traveling spectacle whose touring will soon be permanently cancelled for the first time in over 100 years.

Anyway, when it comes to Magic Leap, I don't see any way that PTBarnum would be disappointed in their profitability so far.

Without even touring or entertaining very many people at all, they've brought in enough money to start a number of colleges.

Re: Magic Leap is neither magic nor leaping

#119

Post by Dylan16807 »

ericd wrote: post #99
chillaxtian wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In most cases the companies that fail after X years have been failing for at least X-1 years. This means these guys were under total stress for X-1 years. > One has no idea what that feels like if they haven't gone through the process. > Imagine wasting X-1 years of your life working on something you no longer "truly" believe in. That part is failing. > If you still don't agree, try raising money and starting a com…

Have you ever worked hard on something for many years and faced the prospect of it still failing? It's painful to think about your baby dying. Startup founders generally don't do it for the (usually below market) salary.

> Have you ever worked hard on something for many years and faced the prospect of it still failing?

Not with someone else paying for it, and knowing I'll still be well-regarded even if it fails.

Re: Magic Leap is neither magic nor leaping

#120

Post by [deleted] »

ggame wrote: post #116
CydeWeys wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pokemon Go isn't real AR though, it's just a phone app that uses the device's camera. You need dedicated hardware to do real AR. I'm withholding judgment until I see that.

It mixes a virtual world with the real world; thus augmenting the real world. I would argue that a fine grain occlusion (individual pixels) vs coarse grain (movable display) isn't that big of a difference with immersion. Consider that we are immersed with our phones quite a bit already. In addition the lack of 3D isn't that big of a deal given the brain fills in the details with other cues. E.g. People that go blind…

[deleted]
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