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The hunt for dollars to build the $64B bullet train

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Re: The hunt for dollars to build the $64B bullet train

#111

Post by tl »

pmorici wrote: post #104
enraged_camel wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>Instead of spending a fortune, Trump won the primaries by saying things that made sense to voters. I'm afraid Peter is misinformed. Trump did spend a fortune to win the primaries. $63.3 million, to be exact. Only Ted Cruz spent more than him, at $85.8 million. You can look at the numbers by the Federal Elections Commission here: http://www.fec.gov/press/summaries/2016/tables/presidential/...

He isn't talking about only the republicans. Clinton spent something like 3x Trump to win the Democratic primary. She also spent twice as much as Trump in the general election. http://freebeacon.com/politics/hillary-clinton-spent-three-t...

A career politician who had lost the primary in 2008 proved that money and connections aren't everything.

Re: The hunt for dollars to build the $64B bullet train

#112

Post by coredog64 »

yummyfajitas wrote: post #5

I'm pretty sure the people calling it a boondoggle are correct. Obama included $3B in the 2009 stimulus package for it back in 2009. Not a single yard of track has been laid. https://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/07/us/high-speed-train-in-ca... http://thehill.com/policy/transportation/263782-obama-high-s... The project is hoped to finish in 2029, which is 12 years from now. For comparison, China build the Qinhuangdao–Sheny…

> For comparison, China build the Qinhuangdao–Shenyang line in 4 years (approx half the SF->LA distance). The cost was $1.9B, which is less than what California has already spent.

In looking at a relief map, the terrain between Qinhuangdao and Shenyang is flat, or mostly so.

Los Angeles is surrounded by mountains. The easiest route between LA & Bakersfield requires traversing a mountain range where the pass elevation is 4000+ feet. In itself that wouldn't be bad (e.g. out east to Riverside and Palm Springs the elevation change is similar), but Grapevine is also twisty as all get out.

The Central Valley portion isn't too bad, but then you've still got to get over the southern coast range that separates the Central Valley from the Bay Area.

On top of that, you have to do it in an environment where all the easiest routes are already taken by the rich and powerful and you're building on/near/around a major earthquake fault that regularly sees large earthquakes.

Re: The hunt for dollars to build the $64B bullet train

#113

Post by rayiner »

yummyfajitas wrote: post #5

I'm pretty sure the people calling it a boondoggle are correct. Obama included $3B in the 2009 stimulus package for it back in 2009. Not a single yard of track has been laid. https://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/07/us/high-speed-train-in-ca... http://thehill.com/policy/transportation/263782-obama-high-s... The project is hoped to finish in 2029, which is 12 years from now. For comparison, China build the Qinhuangdao–Sheny…

I kinda agree with you that we should rethink the cost of infrastructure projects in the US relative to European countries. But I find the China and India comparisons disingenuous. Construction is cheap in those countries because human labor there lives at the edge. Construction laborers in America have a standard of living that rivals that of the top 5% of Indians. They are commensurately more expensive. That's a good thing.

Re: The hunt for dollars to build the $64B bullet train

#114

Post by refurb »

nickff wrote: post #65
maxxxxx wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the problem. There has been so much propaganda about the impossibility of government to do anything right that people don't even try to run an efficient government. But they also don't try to shrink it so money just gets wasted. This happens with healthcare, defense and infrastructure. I think this may get even worse with Trump. During Bush's the Republicans just cut taxes while spending a lot of money on war…

I once heard a comment from a (George W Bush) White House staffer who said something to the effect of: 'there is no point trying to save money while we are in power, because the democrats will just come in and spend it; we should just spend it on our favorite programs.' This is somewhat aligned with Bruce Buena de Mesquita's theories on how politicians act to retain power. I think that the Bush administration's large…

Medicare Part D is actually an example of a good social program, even for those on the right side of the spectrum. The only thing the gov't does is define the parameters of the benfits and then has private insurers bid on providing benefits.

It's come in well under budget projections and seniors are generally happy with how they can shop around for the right plan for them.

Is it perfect? Absolutely not. Is it a pretty successful social program? I'd say so.

Re: The hunt for dollars to build the $64B bullet train

#115

Post by twoodfin »

nickff wrote: post #65
maxxxxx wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the problem. There has been so much propaganda about the impossibility of government to do anything right that people don't even try to run an efficient government. But they also don't try to shrink it so money just gets wasted. This happens with healthcare, defense and infrastructure. I think this may get even worse with Trump. During Bush's the Republicans just cut taxes while spending a lot of money on war…

I once heard a comment from a (George W Bush) White House staffer who said something to the effect of: 'there is no point trying to save money while we are in power, because the democrats will just come in and spend it; we should just spend it on our favorite programs.' This is somewhat aligned with Bruce Buena de Mesquita's theories on how politicians act to retain power. I think that the Bush administration's large…

That's fair, but something like Medicare Part D was essentially inevitable. Even if you think a better-structured program could provide more value / $, you're still talking thousands per senior per year for those drugs.

Re: The hunt for dollars to build the $64B bullet train

#116

Post by blurbleblurble »

mtgx wrote: post #98
maxxxxx wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the problem. There has been so much propaganda about the impossibility of government to do anything right that people don't even try to run an efficient government. But they also don't try to shrink it so money just gets wasted. This happens with healthcare, defense and infrastructure. I think this may get even worse with Trump. During Bush's the Republicans just cut taxes while spending a lot of money on war…

Yes, I think the biggest reason for that happening, as well as the obstructionism in general is the extreme partisanship that has come from the FPTP voting system. Republicans say big government doesn't work, for which they are partly right, but they usually say it for the wrong reasons - wanting to cut some services so they can cut taxes for corporations or spend that money for Defense, not because they want to make…

Yes! This FPTP game is the kernel of many frustrating struggles. It weeds out cooperative leadership, effectively dividing and conquering our government.

Imagine a community meeting where decision-makers were chosen in a game of Monopoly. Anyone who lost the Monopoly game didn't get to make any decisions. The winners, by virtue of their excellent Monopoly skills/luck, got the power to make decisions.

Not only would this process be entirely unfair, it would poison peoples' desire to participate in the first place. Monopoly is a nasty game, as is FPTP. Neither of these have any business being arbiters of power.

Re: The hunt for dollars to build the $64B bullet train

#117

Post by dragonwriter »

jack9 wrote: post #103
dragonwriter wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Not a single yard of track has been laid. True but misleading. Actually laying track is the cheap and easy final part of construction; building the viaducts, grade separations, etc., and doing the other construction which prepares the route for track to be laid.is the time consuming, expensive part, and plenty of that has been done and is being done in the initial segment. > Here in India, we've built an entire cit…

> California's done a lot more than explore the idea of construction. That's irrelevant. There is no planned path, just patches and the project is going to be scaled back to an absurd degree (or sold off, which is basically the same thing). > Anyone who thinks that a statewide high speed rail system in California should be $2-$4 billion dollars in 4 years is fundamentally unserious. The project start, Prop 1A, was fo…

> There is no planned path

Yes, there is a planned alignment for the entire system (and not just the LA to SF "Phase I" for which most of the cost estimates and timelines usually discussed apply, but also the Sacramento to San Diego "Phase 2".)

> just patches

No, even if you are referring to the context of the initial construction, that's not true; it's directed with a clear plan of a specific segment for initial operations between Silicon valley and the Central Valley.

> and the project is going to be scaled back to an absurd degree

Pure speculation; it's true that there is uncertainty, largely political in nature, about funding for the portion beyond the part that is supposed to be operational in 2025. But there's also plenty of time to resolve that.

> The project start, Prop 1A, was for almost 10 billion in 10 years

It was a $10 billion conditional bond authorization (one of the funding challenges has been meeting the conditions in that bond authorization) which was very explicitly not expected to cover full construction cost of the system (nor was there ever a 10 year timeline.)

Re: The hunt for dollars to build the $64B bullet train

#118

Post by api »

adrenalinelol wrote: post #9
api wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is this actually being spent on? Studies to study the feasibility of a feasibility study to begin a study?

Construction workers in the U.S. are decently paid (compared to the foreign counter-parts) and there are a lot of lawyers and consultants who all need a cookie out of the government contract cookie jar.

Are construction workers paid 50X? I doubt it.

Re: The hunt for dollars to build the $64B bullet train

#119

Post by Animats »

akiselev wrote: post #59
Animats wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The most expensive line under construction is the Tokyo-Nagoya maglev line, at $50 billion for only 286km. It's maglev at 500km/hr, and it's 90% in tunnels. They're going straight through the Japanese Alps. Under construction since 2013, opening scheduled for 2027. 43km of track is already in operation as a test track. Here's a ride video.[1] JR expects it to be profitable. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CKwchJ…

That is an early cost estimate and tunneling estimates are by far some of the most innacurate in civil engineering because you never know how much the geology will differ from what the estimate assumed. Construction on the first tunnel segment started a year ago and won't be complete until the 2020s so it'll take a while before the developer knows how bad the overrun will be on that section, let alone for the whole l…

They already have 40Km of tunnel open with trains running.

Re: The hunt for dollars to build the $64B bullet train

#120

Post by tstactplsignore »

tl wrote: post #111
pmorici wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He isn't talking about only the republicans. Clinton spent something like 3x Trump to win the Democratic primary. She also spent twice as much as Trump in the general election. http://freebeacon.com/politics/hillary-clinton-spent-three-t...

A career politician who had lost the primary in 2008 proved that money and connections aren't everything.

Right... because the billionaire who is friends with dozens of billionaires, media owners and personalities, and rich politicians- who represents the interests of these monied connections- won the presidency? Trump is the definition of "money and connections"- all he has that and a particularly low-brow form of salesmanship. The only things this election proved is that things like truth and tact don't count for nearly as much as money and connections.
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