Because it's been just about 10 years since they figured out how to: 1) Use convolutional layers, ReLUs, and a few other tricks to ameliorate the vanishing gradient problem, 2) Perform continuous, high-dimensional stochastic gradient descent on graphics cards, and 3) Apply these things via stochastic grad-student descent to sufficiently massive datasets that even the most brute-force models and training methods (back…
> There are lots of "smarter" algorithms that almost definitely come closer to human cognition Source?
Artificial Intelligence Software Is Booming, But Why Now?
111–120 of 141 posts
Re: Artificial Intelligence Software Is Booming, But Why Now?
#112Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't buy that. Spiders can't beat a human at Go. Sure, they weren't evolved to do that. But how many generations of selective breeding do you think it would take to evolve a spider that could beat the best humans at go? Whereas if you made a spider hunting video game, I bet researchers could train AI's that could beat it within a few months. Video game playing has actually become a big area of research recently an…
How intelligent is a spider, truly ? I mean, creating a machine that beats us at a game we invented ourselves is one thing, but how does that compare to a species that has survived much longer on this earth than us? I mean most people are more worried about iPhone 7 than climate change. I am not arguing that we are not smarter than spiders, but I'm also not going to argue we truly know that we are. It would be wise t…
you could wipe out that species with a focused effort on your part in a couple of years. does that mean you are more important than spiders?
bringing unrealistic philosophical considerations into tangible concerns is a pet peeve of mine
Re: Artificial Intelligence Software Is Booming, But Why Now?
#113Date Approximate cost per GFLOPS inflation adjusted to 2013 US dollars --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1961 $8.3 trillion 1984 $42,780,000 1997 $42,000 April 2000 $1,300 May 2000 $836 August 2003 $100 August 2007 $52 March 2011 $1.80 August 2012 $0.73 June 2013 $0.22 November 2013 $0.16 December 2013 $0.12 January 2015 $0.06
That's kinda scary for AI, actually. We're plateauing..
Where's the plateau here?
Re: Artificial Intelligence Software Is Booming, But Why Now?
#114Because it's been just about 10 years since they figured out how to: 1) Use convolutional layers, ReLUs, and a few other tricks to ameliorate the vanishing gradient problem, 2) Perform continuous, high-dimensional stochastic gradient descent on graphics cards, and 3) Apply these things via stochastic grad-student descent to sufficiently massive datasets that even the most brute-force models and training methods (back…
I'm definitely going to use that stochastic grad student descent line.
It's a standard-issue joke at this point ;-).
Re: Artificial Intelligence Software Is Booming, But Why Now?
#115Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm concerned about something similar, where a lot of AI techniques seem to be rushing toward a local maximum: * AI researchers do things that get good results faster out of Nvidia cards * Nvidia makes their cards faster at the things AI researchers are doing It's getting good results. We sure are going up this gradient quickly. But I don't think it's going to get us to a global maximum.
I agree w/ you about moving up a gradient quickly w/ the "GPU manufacturing deep learning research" feedback loop. I think it could last a while though. One really important area of research is figuring out how to take better advantage of greater capacity. Also, how to do more with fewer training samples (0 shot, 1 shot, etc learning). Then there's reducing the precision of the units you're using to increase capacity…
AMD doesn't care about Deep Learning, or ML at all. To quote:
And in the case of the dollars spent on R&D, they seem to be very happy doing stuff in the car industry, and long may that continue—good luck to them. We're spending our dollars the areas we're focused on[1]
To be clear, stuff in the car industry is "just" stuff like self driving cars[2][3].
[1] http://arstechnica.co.uk/gadgets/2016/04/amd-focusing-on-vr-...
[2] https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2016/05/06/self-driving-cars-3...
Re: Artificial Intelligence Software Is Booming, But Why Now?
#116Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, "signs of intelligence" include creativity , pedagogy , ..., and of course, getting bitten by the bug of existential angst. Accept no subsititute.
It seems pretty likely that we will start to see "General AI" discovering problematic things like the unsolvable nature of ethics questions, the ungroundedness of truth claims, the immense silliness of religions and ideologies, etc. Which might be a good thing. Terrifying visions of AI are all about certainty and the authoritarianism it creates. If existential depression is a mental friction from the lack of certaint…
>Which might be a good thing. Terrifying visions of AI are all about certainty and the authoritarianism it creates.
Indeed, may the gods protect us all from some things actually being true and other things actually being false. That would be terrible!
Re: Artificial Intelligence Software Is Booming, But Why Now?
#117So, the influx is due to a plethora of things, which are not all mutually exclusive:
1) The Internet has indeed produced large data sets which allowed statistical AI approaches to flourish opposed to logical AI approaches.
2) Somewhat better algorithms. However, I'd say that the algorithmic development hasn't had as much progress as the comments elude. We've only had a few notable innovations like NMT in the past ~20 years.
3) Computational Power to run the algorithms, so we can perform more experiments on large data sets, more computationally intensive algos, and induce better hypotheses.
4) Libraries like scikit-learn and keras have "democratized AI". Grad students used to implement algorithms themselves in the 2000s; now middle-schoolers are doing ML with the tooling already available.
Those are basically it. I think (2) could even be taken off, because again: learning algorithms have barely changed IMO.
Re: Artificial Intelligence Software Is Booming, But Why Now?
#118"Democratizing AI" is the word being thrown around a lot by CEOs, PR, et al. But only time will tell whether it's true democracy.
As far as I know, the concept of "democratizing AI" comes specifically from the OpenAI initiative, which intends to make new developments in AI technology broadly available and not tied to any single company or entity. This in order to ensure that no single entity has control over how this technology can be used.
Given that Google, Apple, Facebook and others have vastly more data than any independent project, and therefore have stronger AI (currently limited to e.g. speech recognition, image recognition and other low-impact applications), the state of democratization of AI by this measure is poor today.
Re: Artificial Intelligence Software Is Booming, But Why Now?
#119Earlier quoted context omitted.
It seems pretty likely that we will start to see "General AI" discovering problematic things like the unsolvable nature of ethics questions, the ungroundedness of truth claims, the immense silliness of religions and ideologies, etc. Which might be a good thing. Terrifying visions of AI are all about certainty and the authoritarianism it creates. If existential depression is a mental friction from the lack of certaint…
>Which might be a good thing. Terrifying visions of AI are all about certainty and the authoritarianism it creates. Indeed, may the gods protect us all from some things actually being true and other things actually being false. That would be terrible!
(I sense/assume a missing /s in your post, Eli.)
The objection here would be that entertaining that we can assert T/F of all propositions, given results of halting problem [computation], incompleteness [formalism], and uncertainty [physics], is unreasonable.
Re: Artificial Intelligence Software Is Booming, But Why Now?
#120Date Approximate cost per GFLOPS inflation adjusted to 2013 US dollars --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1961 $8.3 trillion 1984 $42,780,000 1997 $42,000 April 2000 $1,300 May 2000 $836 August 2003 $100 August 2007 $52 March 2011 $1.80 August 2012 $0.73 June 2013 $0.22 November 2013 $0.16 December 2013 $0.12 January 2015 $0.06
That's counting the GPU processing power, which is not so easy to use. No way the CPU FLOPS have become 30x cheaper since 2011 (its increase really slowed down since then).