if the insurance companies can keep state laws in place, perhaps less revenue but also less payouts = more profit(?)
Driverless Cars Threaten to Crash Insurers’ Earnings
111–120 of 125 posts
Re: Driverless Cars Threaten to Crash Insurers’ Earnings
#112Earlier quoted context omitted.
> do you really want to be in a machine that you have no control over Yes. I regularly fly in planes, which I have no control over, and which spend most of their time on autopilot. I also regularly deal with machines that do their jobs far better than I could, and I feel no desire to take over and do those jobs worse. Why should that answer change when the stakes get higher and the cost of a mistake goes up ? (That d…
I really hate this association of aircraft and car autopilots. Aircraft operate in essentially empty space, and barring major mechanical failure the pilots typically have tens of seconds up to many minutes to act to avoid disaster. In a car you often have less than a second to react, and certainly never more than 4-5. Aircraft hardware and software is tested, retested, tested again, and certified. Auto hardware and s…
Autolanding doesn't have the empty space, yet the first autolanding of a commercial flight with passengers aboard was done in '65.
Re: Driverless Cars Threaten to Crash Insurers’ Earnings
#113The other bubble that driverless cars are going to pop is ticket revenue. There are a lot of police departments and cities who have structured a lot of their budget on heavy-handed enforcement of motorists. That's going to decline significantly once driverless cars are scrupulously following the rules of the road. And any tickets that get written will be going against a giant corporation like Google, with detailed in…
And two more bubbles: long haul trucking and taxis. Getting rid of drivers is a high priority for that industry. Human drivers are expensive and they can only drive 70 hours a week. [1] Oh, and Uber is dying to get rid of all its drivers too. [2] 1. https://www.transportation.gov/briefing-room/new-hours-servi... 2. http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2015/01/27/how-ubers-autono...
Maritime shipping...
Re: Driverless Cars Threaten to Crash Insurers’ Earnings
#114Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Completely unattended driving (enter destination and taking a nap) is still up for debate. Requiring a machine to be watched seems like a pretty easy-to-pass regulation. Requiring a human to watch implies a means for the human to intervene and take over. Having a human second-guess the machine will increase accidents. And having the controls available for the human to do so will increase complexity and decrease rel…
Many regulations are of questionable validity, but do you really want to be in a machine that you have no control over? Would robotic drivers be better at things like merging, keeping distance, not over correcting? Yes. But people will still want to intervene when it doing something dumb like driving into a pond, or gets stuck on a median and cannot figure out how to get off. Driverless cars will probably not be magi…
> do you really want to be in a machine that you have no control over?
Do you ever ride in taxis? Or as a passenger in any car? How is that situation any different?
Re: Driverless Cars Threaten to Crash Insurers’ Earnings
#115Earlier quoted context omitted.
I really hate this association of aircraft and car autopilots. Aircraft operate in essentially empty space, and barring major mechanical failure the pilots typically have tens of seconds up to many minutes to act to avoid disaster. In a car you often have less than a second to react, and certainly never more than 4-5. Aircraft hardware and software is tested, retested, tested again, and certified. Auto hardware and s…
Autolanding doesn't have the empty space, yet the first autolanding of a commercial flight with passengers aboard was done in '65.
Errr... yes it does. A runway is empty space. There are no other planes on it, it's a straight, well-maintained stretch of pavement, kept clear of ice and snow, with clear markings. Those are conditions so easy that non-self-driving cars can manage to navigate them for non-trivial periods of time without hitting anything! The Mythbusters have had a couple of cars go entirely out of control a couple times under those circumstances and the damage was a fence, once, IIRC.
Re: Driverless Cars Threaten to Crash Insurers’ Earnings
#116Earlier quoted context omitted.
Autolanding doesn't have the empty space, yet the first autolanding of a commercial flight with passengers aboard was done in '65.
Errr... yes it does. A runway is empty space. There are no other planes on it, it's a straight, well-maintained stretch of pavement, kept clear of ice and snow, with clear markings. Those are conditions so easy that non-self-driving cars can manage to navigate them for non-trivial periods of time without hitting anything! The Mythbusters have had a couple of cars go entirely out of control a couple times under those…
There's more to landing than taxiing on the runway, like approaching the ground at a minimum of 250 km/h while getting hit by winds, often with very little visibility.
Re: Driverless Cars Threaten to Crash Insurers’ Earnings
#117Earlier quoted context omitted.
The cost of owning a car (maintenance, financing, registration, license, insurance, tickets, parking, cleaning) will totally eclipse the cost of Lyft/Ubering a self-driving car, even (especially?) for the poor. We're already to the point where if your commute is less than 8 miles or so, using Uber daily is cheaper than the cost of ownership on a $30k vehicle. Just imagine what self-driving cars will do to that equati…
it's a good point, but just a reminder that for most people the price for comparison would be public transit, bicycle, or scooter, not a $30k car.
I guess that's true. I'm not saying an 8-mile commute and a $30k car is where the line is either, though. That was just my situation roughly, and Uber wasn't a little less expensive, it was a LOT less expensive. Like, roughly 60% less expensive than owning the car when you factor in things like tread wear, depreciation, and the value of your time. And that's with no lease, no loan, and minimal insurance.
The true line right now (where car ownership becomes more expensive than Uber) based on my experience is probably closer to an 8-mile commute and a $15k car. That line gets much lower when you add in things like financing, overpriced insurance, and leasing, which do affect a majority of the population.
I should actually do a writeup about this. I have access to all my numbers on it but I've only ever done rough estimates (which were clear enough that choosing Uber/Lyft was obvious). Now I'm curious to see exactly how the costs compared.
Re: Driverless Cars Threaten to Crash Insurers’ Earnings
#118Earlier quoted context omitted.
it's a good point, but just a reminder that for most people the price for comparison would be public transit, bicycle, or scooter, not a $30k car.
I guess that's true. I'm not saying an 8-mile commute and a $30k car is where the line is either, though. That was just my situation roughly, and Uber wasn't a little less expensive, it was a LOT less expensive. Like, roughly 60% less expensive than owning the car when you factor in things like tread wear, depreciation, and the value of your time. And that's with no lease, no loan, and minimal insurance. The true lin…
Plenty of people in the valley also commute in a brand new M4, Tesla, Porsche GT3, etc. >$70k cars used for commuting might not be the norm, but look around some BigCo parking lots....I'm sure that the average is much higher than $30k depending on the company.
Re: Driverless Cars Threaten to Crash Insurers’ Earnings
#119Re: Driverless Cars Threaten to Crash Insurers’ Earnings
#120Earlier quoted context omitted.
Errr... yes it does. A runway is empty space. There are no other planes on it, it's a straight, well-maintained stretch of pavement, kept clear of ice and snow, with clear markings. Those are conditions so easy that non-self-driving cars can manage to navigate them for non-trivial periods of time without hitting anything! The Mythbusters have had a couple of cars go entirely out of control a couple times under those…
There's more to landing than taxiing on the runway, like approaching the ground at a minimum of 250 km/h while getting hit by winds, often with very little visibility.
Hike dem goalposts!