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After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

nytimes.com

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Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#111

Post by varjag »

shubb wrote: post #96
varjag wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If there is market incentive to move banking to Holland, it will happen. The bankers will move where the jobs go, they don't have much say in the matter.

The large salaries paid to bankers are based on the idea that elite bankers are a rare and precious commodity - one that it is worth paying for. Presumably this is elite bankers are the most connected and collaborate to rig markets best. Presumably if a bank moved to amsterdam, it would not be able to hire the top bankers and would be left out of important money making schemes like the recent Libor conspiracy.

This is kind of saying that the salaries paid for tech talent in the Valley is an outcome of tech elites conspiracy. While in reality it's a function of history, location, network effect and estate prices.

Big enough market disruption can easily tip the scales. And leaving the EU trade zone is pretty destructive for banking and European HQ beachheads in London.

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#112

Post by SyneRyder »

eru wrote: post #95
TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the last couple of months, I think there's no evidence at all to support the assertion that British politicians aren't idiots. Ignoring the legalities, the Leave vote crossed the Rubicon. The EU has always tolerated rather than enjoyed the company of the British establishment. So the EU is happy to see the back of the UK. The British establishment still thinks it's the 19th century, so it's happy not to have an…

> The EU has always tolerated rather than enjoyed the company of the British establishment. So the EU is happy to see the back of the UK. The Germans and more market oriented Europeans further east liked the British as a counterweight to the statist French, I think. More importantly, can the EU actually kick out Britain, if Britain decides not to go forward with the leave?

In this Guardian article, they say the only grounds for suspending an EU member are a breach of EU values, such as freedom & democracy. Maybe they could invoke that on grounds of ignoring the referendum, but it might be a precedent the EU don't want to set:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/25/article-50-b...

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#113

Post by allendoerfer »

lukasm wrote: post #99
allendoerfer wrote: post #72

> Its population of 2.5 million could absorb a large influx of financial professionals. Frankfurt is just growing over 700k people.

From wiki Population (2014-12-31) • City 717,624 • Urban 2,221,910 • Metro 5,500,000 I wouldn't be surprised that there is 7mln that can commute to Frankfurt.

Frankfurt has some smaller outpost cities, which are extremely rich like Königsberg and Bad Homburg (this is why Frankfurt is not Munich-expensive and nowhere near London-expensive) and there are a few major cities from which you can easily commute like Darmstadt, Offenbach, Wiesbaden and Mainz plus people from villages all over Hesse work in Frankfurt.

Still Frankfurt itself is a small village with an airport and a few towers. The city itself calls it "the biggest village in Hesse" [0].

[0]: http://www.frankfurt.de/sixcms/detail.php?id=2942&_ffmpar[_i...

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#114

Post by gutnor »

simonh wrote: post #109
gutnor wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the UK negotiate to be part of the EEA within 2 years of activating Article 50, then it will be a smooth transition. The other unknown that parent did not mention is how hard will the EU make those negotiation. Everybody economical interest is that the EU accept, even politically punishing an ex-member for leaving is going to have consequences in the EU and internationally ( Eurosceptic movement have been boosted…

> If the UK negotiate to be part of the EEA within 2 years of activating Article 50, then it will be a smooth transition. As I have tried to explain, negotiating to join the EEA while still a member of the EU is illegal under EU law. They can only start that negotiation after actually leaving the EU, not after triggering Article 50.

What is your legal status after triggering Article 50 ?

Are you still considered a full member of the EU, meaning you retain all your rights including voting ?

Lots of things are illegal for member state, basically everything that the UK needs to do in the 2 years period is illegal for a member state. Remain have been bad at campaigning but forgetting to say that -actually- they won't be able to initiate any trade negotiation until basically the day all their deals expire seems like a major blunder. If that's indeed the case, the UK will have no choice but not trigger Article 50.

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#115

Post by monk_e_boy »

xedarius wrote: post #108

The article doesn't seem to consider that London may become more attractive to the financial sector. You know what banks hate? Regulation, you know what the EU has loads of .... that's right regulation. The UK will be able to offer a environment where financial services can thrive. Seems to have worked out for Singapore, and London already has quite the head start. Interesting times.

These articles are mostly FUD and partly from the bankers as a not so gentle prod to the UK government (Don't forget us, the banks) to deregulate a bit. We'll most likely get a Troy government next so deregulation is almost certain.

I think London will be ok.

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#116

Post by simonh »

gutnor wrote: post #114
simonh wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If the UK negotiate to be part of the EEA within 2 years of activating Article 50, then it will be a smooth transition. As I have tried to explain, negotiating to join the EEA while still a member of the EU is illegal under EU law. They can only start that negotiation after actually leaving the EU, not after triggering Article 50.

What is your legal status after triggering Article 50 ? Are you still considered a full member of the EU, meaning you retain all your rights including voting ? Lots of things are illegal for member state, basically everything that the UK needs to do in the 2 years period is illegal for a member state. Remain have been bad at campaigning but forgetting to say that -actually- they won't be able to initiate any trade ne…

> Are you still considered a full member of the EU, meaning you retain all your rights including voting ?

Yep.

And to your other points, yes again. Article 50 is a political and economic suicide pill.

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#117

Post by ZeroGravitas »

krona wrote: post #105
ZeroGravitas wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I covered this in the post you're replying to, but having to beg someone to let you leave vs. saying "we're leaving" shows a clear disparity in sovereignty. Most of the claims of loss of sovereignty to the EU were in fact nonsense. This video by an expert in EU law covers it in detail: https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2016/06/16/watch-dishonesty-ind... > So let us start with a couple of myths. The first is the myth of so…

I read the transcript of that video. He seems to be making conclusions about the Review of the Balance of Competencies between the UK and the EU that 1: the report itself doesn't make, and 2: I find very easy to disagree with (after reading a sample of the report myself, which is extensive). The depth of his analysis (which goes no further than the Working Time Directive!) is about consistent with most self-proclaime…

We don't have to wonder, we'll find out what happens in that case, because it seems likely we'll cancel the UK law that tells the UK courts to do that as part of the process of Brexit. Something we can do, because we have sovereignty.

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#118

Post by simonh »

SyneRyder wrote: post #112
eru wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The EU has always tolerated rather than enjoyed the company of the British establishment. So the EU is happy to see the back of the UK. The Germans and more market oriented Europeans further east liked the British as a counterweight to the statist French, I think. More importantly, can the EU actually kick out Britain, if Britain decides not to go forward with the leave?

In this Guardian article, they say the only grounds for suspending an EU member are a breach of EU values, such as freedom & democracy. Maybe they could invoke that on grounds of ignoring the referendum, but it might be a precedent the EU don't want to set: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/25/article-50-b...

> Maybe they could invoke that on grounds of ignoring the referendum

The referendum is only advisory under British law so they'd have no legal basis on which to do that.

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#119

Post by smcl »

eru wrote: post #98
lucozade wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister of Scotland, has been in Brussels discussing this. In summary, it's complicated. Firstly, economically, the remainder of the UK is a far larger market for Scotland than the EU. This wouldn't be a big issue if the UK can negotiate very good access to the single market but that's highly questionable. It also is complicated by the second point. Secondly, it is highly unlikely that Sco…

> Secondly, it is highly unlikely that Scotland would be able to (re)enter the EU without joining the Euro. Why? There are plenty of EU countries without the Euro..

The UK and Denmark have a fairly unique opt-out from the Euro. Everyone else who has joined the EU in the reasonably recent-term have pledged to join at some point in the future. Sweden is supposed to join but for some reason has managed to avoid it

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#120

Post by lordnacho »

varjag wrote: post #13
lordnacho wrote: post #7

There's an ongoing offshoring of certain divisions anyway, something the article alludes to with the Polish IT staff. That kind of thing is Brexit independent. Michelin stars are not synonymous with having good restaurants. Something like a good steakhouse is not captured my Michelin, which is a very narrow definition of good food. There's also the requirement of variety, which London does extremely well: food from m…

> Something like a good steakhouse is not captured my Michelin, which is a very narrow definition of good food. Michelin rates all kinds of places, including sushi bars, Chinese takeaways and steakhouses.

Yes, but most cities have only a handful of Michelin places. There's no reason to think a city with a few rated restaurants will have more numerous or varied restaurants.
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