Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

rameznaam.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

111–120 of 197 posts

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#111

Post by [deleted] »

dragontamer wrote: post #95
icebraining wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Three years ago Tesla already had a robot that could replace a battery in 90s: https://www.teslamotors.com/videos/battery-swap-event

Yeah. Except no one can figure out how the system would work. The Roadster's battery pack costs $28,000. The Tesla Model S's battery pack is expected to cost $10,000+ AFTER the efficiency of the Gigafactory in 2020. Swapping out a $10,000+ part and sharing it between cars is going to be a major, MAJOR business / economic question. How do you do it fairly? How do you ensure that the quality of the battery remains the…

[deleted]

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#112

Post by misthop »

dragontamer wrote: post #95
icebraining wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Three years ago Tesla already had a robot that could replace a battery in 90s: https://www.teslamotors.com/videos/battery-swap-event

Yeah. Except no one can figure out how the system would work. The Roadster's battery pack costs $28,000. The Tesla Model S's battery pack is expected to cost $10,000+ AFTER the efficiency of the Gigafactory in 2020. Swapping out a $10,000+ part and sharing it between cars is going to be a major, MAJOR business / economic question. How do you do it fairly? How do you ensure that the quality of the battery remains the…

In the sharing paradigm it is Tesla, or a large fleet service, who owns all the vehicles. In that case they have their own battery swapping sites and they own all of the batteries. Fairness only come into play if you are assuming private ownership of the vehicles.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#113

Post by AdrianB1 »

knz wrote: post #108
S_A_P wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like the size = safety is fallacious. Size can equal safety, but its not a guarantee. Sure I would not want to get hit by a 3 ton lifted SUV with ranch style bumpers on it. I would feel that way even if what I were driving was a 3 ton suv with the same bumpers. There was an NHTSA video a few years back of a modern chevy impala hitting a 1959 impala and the much larger 59 getting demolished, while the new one h…

I understand your point that modern vehicles are relatively safe, but after seeing the result of a semi truck taking out a pickup truck on the Interstate yesterday I am seriously considering my choice to drive a compact vehicle. I assume larger vehicles have larger/longer crumple zones compared to compact vehicles and that higher vehicles have less chance of going under other vehicles? Of course it's zero sum if ever…

If you want to minimize the effects of the impact with a semi then the only real option is another semi; a 1 ton car or a 3 ton car makes no difference being hit by a 40 ton truck, but the 1 ton car consumes much less fuel/energy.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#114

Post by sjwright »

Someone1234 wrote: post #79
S_A_P wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like the size = safety is fallacious. Size can equal safety, but its not a guarantee. Sure I would not want to get hit by a 3 ton lifted SUV with ranch style bumpers on it. I would feel that way even if what I were driving was a 3 ton suv with the same bumpers. There was an NHTSA video a few years back of a modern chevy impala hitting a 1959 impala and the much larger 59 getting demolished, while the new one h…

This issue was covered in great depth when the Smart Car (e.g. Fortwo) got popular in Europe. Smart Cars have a lot of safety features, seat belts, airbags (4x), ABS, stability control, but the question was really about impact distribution. They put in a tridion protection cell[0] and moved the engine to the back to offer SOME crumple at the front. The Euro NCAP rated it 4/5, IIHS rated it "good" but it later failed…

Fifth Gear (UK) crash tested a smart car 10 or so years ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mnI-LiKCtuE

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#115

Post by dragontamer »

edent wrote: post #30
gregwtmtno wrote: post #25

The author believes that electric cars will be better for ride sharing services than gasoline cars because the cost per ride is cheaper. I'm not sure I agree. Unlike private cars, shared cars are in use many more hours per day and charging time versus gasoline refill time should be considered.

That's true enough. But rapid chargers can "fill" an electric vehicle in 30 minutes. A typical London taxi driver does around 200 miles per day. So, depending on usage patterns, that's a recharge over 30 minute lunch break - and maybe a short top-up every time they go to the loo. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/10...

Strange, Tesla only seems to say 170 miles over a 30-minute charge.

https://www.teslamotors.com/supercharger

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#116

Post by AdrianB1 »

arethuza wrote: post #32
pmontra wrote: post #13

A car sharing service in Milan, Italy, is using small two seater electric cars from China. Prompted by this article I finally investigated and found them at http://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/China-eec-l7e-80-elect... They're quoted with a maximum price of $8000. They're definitely made for driving inside a city. Not very good suspensions (don't drive too fast on cobble stones) but good torque (easily beats a gas…

"Would I survive a crash? They're very tiny..." Isn't the real test how likely you are to be injured/killed per mile driven? Larger vehicles like SUVs might be safer if you are in an accident but that could be offset if they are more likely to actually be in an accident.

So 'drive an 18 wheeler' is the solution?

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#117

Post by JulianMorrison »

djrogers wrote: post #103
JulianMorrison wrote: post #92

I confidently predict, in my lifetime, - Nearly all cars will be electric. - Nearly all cars will be self driving. - Nearly all cars will be Uber, or something like it. - Exceptions to the above will be owned by the same sort of people who currently own Ford model Ts. They will be lovingly maintained, proudly exhibited, and illegal to drive on the public highway.

>illegal to drive on the public highway. Model T's are not illegal to drive today... And you've got a lot more public sentiment to overcome and a LOT more cars to replace than you think if you believe all of this will happen in the next 50 years.

As with film cameras, internal combustion cars have a long logistical tail that is highly dependent on the continued existence of the current volume of use. So when electric cars start squeezing them out, gas stations and repair garages will start to disappear, prices will go up for fuel and parts. Poor people with junker gasoline cars they really don't want to replace will be driving longer to find fuel and sooner or later will be driven to either convert their car or sell it for scrap. The only demographic that will be able to afford to run them will be moneyed enthusiasts. Once they effectively disappear from the roads (and the voting booth) the government will ban them.

I expect that taxis and trucks will be mandated self-driving before cars will, because the safety upside will be obvious and huge, and the government is used to meddling in those industries. Seeing the results of that, there will be a sustained public pressure to mandate it for cars, with each accident splashed on the news and reporters saying "if only". As above, they'll first become rare and then banned.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#118

Post by grandalf »

djrogers wrote: post #102
grandalf wrote: post #58

When you buy a car in the US, most of what you pay for is fancy molded plastic and attractive sheet metal work, cleverly organized by the manufacturer into trim level "tiers" intended to create maximum perceived value. The package is then financed or leased with incentive financing and the sights are set on getting you to replace it after 2-4 years whether it needs to be replaced or not. I think a 6 passenger mini-va…

Sadly, safety regulations make what you're asking for nearly impossible in the 'Land of the Free'... Sure, things like crumple zones are cheap because they're just metal and space, but regulation never stops. Mandatory tire pressure monitors, mandatory backup cameras (and no, your smartphone screen won't suffice for that requirement, must be fixed in the cockpit), mandatory LATCH, mandatory airbags, ABS, etc etc etc.…

Good point. Maybe the US wouldn't be the ideal target market.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#119

Post by mikeyouse »

cowmix wrote: post #39
PinguTS wrote: post #5

This article has lots of false assumptions. To phrase it positively, the article ignores a lot of facts. EVs are simpler devices than gasoline-powered vehicles. They have a smaller number of parts, making them easier to assemble. At similar scale to gas vehicles, electric vehicles should indeed be lower cost to built. In addition, EVs have many fewer moving parts (in the engine and drivetrain in particular) than inte…

It is funny you should bring up brakes. On most hybrids and plugins brakes seem to last forever because regenerative braking is what is mostly used over using brake pads. My Volt has 54K miles yet my brake pads look practically new. Also, my Volt has only had its oil replaced once (because of how often the engine runs.) When I get my Tesla 3, I'll obviously never change my oil.

> When I get my Tesla 3, I'll obviously never change my oil.

Or your transmission fluid, or your spark plugs, or your muffler / exhaust pipe, or your catalytic converters, or your oxygen sensors, or about 100 other parts unique to ICE engines.. Many of which I've recently repaired on my 160k-mile car.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#120

Post by mikeyouse »

mark-r wrote: post #49

Such an interesting premise, such a flawed assumption... An electric car shares most of its parts with a gas one, so you can't expect any savings from economies of scale there. Going back to the Model T for the cost curve is just laughable.

> An electric car shares most of its parts with a gas one

Definitely depends on how you qualify 'most'. An electric car has nearly none of the mechanical complexity of an ICE car. Look at the engine bay and undercarriage of a typical internal combustion car:

http://i.imgur.com/uDxSsR2.jpg

Gas tank, fuel lines, transmission, engine, drive shaft, spark plugs / distributor cap, muffler, exhaust system, fuel pump, engine, air intake, turbo/super chargers if necessary, oil pumps / reservoirs, etc. -- many hundreds of parts can be shaved off of full electric cars.

I'm firmly in the camp that Tesla is going to have a much more difficult time that people predict in shipping a mass-market car, but that doesn't change the fact that it's much easier to build an electric car than an ICE one.

Post reply on HN