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Iceland put top finance executives behind bars, but fears of cronyism remain

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Re: Iceland put top finance executives behind bars, but fears of cronyism remain

#111
post #16

Exactly, the problem has got worse. Banks are larger and more centralised, the offenders unpunished know they can act with impunity, legislation is unchanged. Banking/ finance types now know that if they are losing money they must simply lose big enough to trigger more bailouts and the taxpayer pays. This is despotic anti-capitalism: they keep the winnings and losses are generational debt on which they again profit.…

"Austerity stagnates an economy". How did overspending work out for Greece? [ edit: I'd be glad to discuss substance. The admittedly rhetorical question stands. What is the evidence on overspending and growth? ]

Their current economic situation has very little to do with overspending. In general, they didn't. The country has it's traditional tax revenue problems and has never had a great economy, but without the Euro they would have simply devalued their currency (among other tools available only to governments) and left the debt unpaid for a few hundred years. Just like every other country does.

So what happened? Greece was effectively used to send 5 trillion (with a "t") in bailout money back to the banks big banks of Europe.

This was possible because of the idiocy that is the Euro and the ECB, which removed exchange risk and devaluation risk from across the European currencies. The banks of Europe did a volume convergence trade, effectively betting against their sovereigns that their new debt would have to be bailed out as they became "too big to fail".

Supposedly one of the bankers involved explained the scam like this:

    You borrow at one
    You buy at ten
    You use the spread
    To bury the dead
    You bank it at four
    And repo more
    And then go knock
    On the ECB's door
Except the ECB wasn't a lender of last resort and EU banks - and the EU economy in general - has been in a slow-motion crash ever since. The recent-ish use of QE is a stupid way to fix the economy, but it's better than letting the entire economy crash.

I'm leaving out a lot of details, of course. Anybody intrested in Greece and the EU (and the world economy in general) should watch Mark Blyth's very informative overview of how we got here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6vV8_uQmxs#t=673

See this more rent talk for a post-negative-interest-rate update, where Blyth observes that Europe is looking a LOT like Japan did during their "lost decade"...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fP6YSCpm8g

...and this discussion with the former Minister of Finance of Greece, Yanis Varoufakis.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMk6aVsl8Rs

> austerity

Austerity is always a terrible solution to economic problems, because just about the stupidest thing you can do when the economy is bad is shrink the GDP. There is even a historical record of austerity (approximately) always leading to a smaller, more stagnant economy... and some nasty political shifts towards populism. The politics of austerity are terrible, because it's effectively a class-specific "put option". We are very good at socializing the risks of investment while blaming the lower classes for "overspending".

Unfortunately a lot of people make the mistake of assuming governments see the economy the same way the people or businesses do. This leads to the idea that government debts are zero-sum like personal debt, but the rules change when you are the group that prints the money and sets economic policy.

Re: Iceland put top finance executives behind bars, but fears of cronyism remain

#112
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK, how was TARP not a gift?

TARP has yielded a $64.5B profit [0] for the government. It was a loan, not a gift. It should be noted that the financial bailout was profitable, while the auto bailout netted a $9.5B loss [1]. [0] https://projects.propublica.org/bailout/ [1] http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/20/business/us-signals-end-of...

The return on TARP money was far below market rate. The difference is unquestionably a gift. In addition, had the TARP money not been sufficient to get the businesses back to profitability an additional bailout would have followed. It's heads-you-win tails double-or-nothing game. The recipients understood this was a gift, which is why wall street cheerfully awarded itself 18 billion in bonuses after receiving 125 billion in bailouts.

Re: Iceland put top finance executives behind bars, but fears of cronyism remain

#113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Instruments developed by Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and a wide range of other banks enabled politicians to mask additional borrowing in Greece, Italy and possibly elsewhere." Sounds like the Greek government was culpable. Not blaming the culture of corruption in Greece and not pointing out that the Greek overspending was the root of the problem is disingenuous.

There have been two different Greek governments in this period. Smearing Syriza, a socialist formation which made the same critique as the above poster, and would never have signed those deals -- for the corrupt actions of New Democracy & PASOK which did is a little bit of intellectual dishonesty.

PASOK = Panhellenic Socialists

Re: Iceland put top finance executives behind bars, but fears of cronyism remain

#114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference is that in the US, while it would have been possible to prosecute bankers under existing law after the 2008 meltdown, we did not.

I don't even care that we didn't prosecute them. I just wish they weren't bailed out by the government (aka my tax money) when they went under. It's a free market: you make mistakes, you lose.

Its only a free market until the rich people start losing money

Re: Iceland put top finance executives behind bars, but fears of cronyism remain

#115
post #16

Exactly, the problem has got worse. Banks are larger and more centralised, the offenders unpunished know they can act with impunity, legislation is unchanged. Banking/ finance types now know that if they are losing money they must simply lose big enough to trigger more bailouts and the taxpayer pays. This is despotic anti-capitalism: they keep the winnings and losses are generational debt on which they again profit.…

I worry we're confusing a number of different things here. I don't think Keynsian or Austrian economics is in favor of or really even addresses the idea of bank bailouts. Those two forms of economic thinking are much more about how to fundamentally run/grow an economy. This bank bailout thing is mostly about corruption and systemic risk management, which is really totally different.

> I don't think Keynsian or Austrian economics is in favor of or really even addresses the idea of bank bailouts

Neither school directly addresses the idea in the form we observe today - QE injections of liquidity to prevent runs that should bankrupt institutions that trade against/leverage an unsustainable amount of toxic assets - because central banks did not count QE as a viable option in their quiver of monetary policy tools until the BOJ (Bank of Japan) began to use QE in the early 2000's to try and solve secular stagnation. Hence why QE was termed "unconventional" monetary policy when the Fed and other major central banks started to use it as the FFR approached zero post financial-crisis.

"Keynesian" economists tend to favor intervention (leaning towards market manipulation), whereas "Austrian" economists tend to favor austerity (leaning towards free market). This is a gross oversimplification, as there is a huge range of thinking on both sides that spans many different views on the role of government in various markets. But let's use it as a rough way to judge QE:

OK, so corruption got out of hand - bankers did not live up to their fiduciary duty to protect investors. Predatory investors took out loans with the intent to default and dump property on banks. Excess leverage backed with toxic assets occurs and the system fails. Fine. What do we do next?

Austrians would call for austerity - let the corrupt institutions fail, enter bankruptcy, and be reformed. The system would tear itself apart and be reborn from the ashes. No misdirection of resources, no boom and bust.

Keynesians (who largely supported QE [1]) would call for intervention - prop the old system up, relieve the private sector of risk, inject liquidity into failing institutions, create artificial demand.

Obviously neither economic system calls for more corruption, but both acknowledge that it is an inherent human trait. Where they generally differ is in their response to crises brought on by corruption.

Re: Iceland put top finance executives behind bars, but fears of cronyism remain

#116
post #112
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TARP has yielded a $64.5B profit [0] for the government. It was a loan, not a gift. It should be noted that the financial bailout was profitable, while the auto bailout netted a $9.5B loss [1]. [0] https://projects.propublica.org/bailout/ [1] http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/20/business/us-signals-end-of...

The return on TARP money was far below market rate. The difference is unquestionably a gift. In addition, had the TARP money not been sufficient to get the businesses back to profitability an additional bailout would have followed. It's heads-you-win tails double-or-nothing game. The recipients understood this was a gift, which is why wall street cheerfully awarded itself 18 billion in bonuses after receiving 125 bil…

[deleted]

Re: Iceland put top finance executives behind bars, but fears of cronyism remain

#117
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This can really be traced back to the repeal of Glass Steagal Can it? Because none of the banks who initially failed would have been firewalled by Glass-Steagal. Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, AIG...none of these were deposit-taking institutions. The problem erupted from corn-fed mortgages, something Glass-Steagall wouldn't have saved us from. This isn't just my opinion. Most economists see Gramm-Leach-Bliley (the…

AIG wasn't a bad, but an insurance company that failed because it took on too much risk. If, for example, AIG was that only one to fail I'm not sure it would have taken down the economy with it. I see them as someone that got embroiled in the "sub-prime mortgage crisis", but not necessarily a perpetrator (unless I'm missing something).

AIG insured the mortgage backed securities that caused the crisis.

Re: Iceland put top finance executives behind bars, but fears of cronyism remain

#118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This can really be traced back to the repeal of Glass Steagal. After the great depression in the 30s, congress passed the Glass Steagal act, which put a firewall between investment banks and commercial banks. In other words, Wall Street investment banks could no longer gamble with customer deposits. This seems like common sense, and all of the financial problems actually occurred after Glass Steagal was repealed in t…

> This can really be traced back to the repeal of Glass Steagal Can it? Because none of the banks who initially failed would have been firewalled by Glass-Steagal. Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, AIG...none of these were deposit-taking institutions. The problem erupted from corn-fed mortgages, something Glass-Steagall wouldn't have saved us from. This isn't just my opinion. Most economists see Gramm-Leach-Bliley (the…

The problem erupted because of a gigantic grey market in CDOs and other esoteric "financial products" which mainly appear to have been designed primarily to siphon money from their customers.

Glass-Steagal never envisioned the Rube Goldberg tower of cards this market created, with many transactions being so complex that they resist analysis.

http://www.kamakuraco.com/Portals/0/doclibrary/KCP26.pdf

Re: Iceland put top finance executives behind bars, but fears of cronyism remain

#119
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This can really be traced back to the repeal of Glass Steagal Can it? Because none of the banks who initially failed would have been firewalled by Glass-Steagal. Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, AIG...none of these were deposit-taking institutions. The problem erupted from corn-fed mortgages, something Glass-Steagall wouldn't have saved us from. This isn't just my opinion. Most economists see Gramm-Leach-Bliley (the…

AIG wasn't a bad, but an insurance company that failed because it took on too much risk. If, for example, AIG was that only one to fail I'm not sure it would have taken down the economy with it. I see them as someone that got embroiled in the "sub-prime mortgage crisis", but not necessarily a perpetrator (unless I'm missing something).

AIG wasn't a bank but it was insuring a lot of the bank's assets, including securitized mortgages. By taking that risk off the banks' balance sheets, they let the banks take on more risk than they otherwise could have. So maybe AIG wasn't a perpetrator, but it was an enabler.

Re: Iceland put top finance executives behind bars, but fears of cronyism remain

#120
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK, how was TARP not a gift?

TARP has yielded a $64.5B profit [0] for the government. It was a loan, not a gift. It should be noted that the financial bailout was profitable, while the auto bailout netted a $9.5B loss [1]. [0] https://projects.propublica.org/bailout/ [1] http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/20/business/us-signals-end-of...

A loan to save your bank from collapse when no one else will, is a gift.
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