Earlier quoted context omitted.
Funny to call it reporting when it's more of an editorial by the renowned security researcher Bruce Schneier. However, I'll defend his point: take the Monty Hall problem [ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem ]. The probabilities change, even when a door you didn't pick [and doesn't hold the prize] is opened. I think this is a fair analogy. We've now gained knowledge about the existence of a vulnerability…
> The probabilities change, even when a door you didn't pick [and doesn't hold the prize] is opened. That's the common misunderstanding of the problem. Most people think that the probabilities go fro 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 to 1/2, 1/2, after choosing a door and having Monty Hall open one of the others. The probabilities don't change. The probabilities are 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 at the start. After you choose a door, they're still 1/3,…
You could run (ed:a similar game with different rules) such that the odds go 1/3,1/3,1/3 to 1/2, 1/2 if you flipped a coin to chose the second door and sometimes show the prize. Alternatively, if you chose when to open the second door, you could make swapping a very good (100%) or very poor choice (0%).
Worse, you could swap what's behind the doors after they chose.
Which IMO is why people find this so confusing. In the real world the odds presented may or may not line up with the actual odds. aka unknown unknowns.