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Lee Sedol Beats AlphaGo in Game 4

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Re: Lee Sedol Beats AlphaGo in Game 4

#111
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the value/policy model is predictive with a dataset containing only amateur games, but fails to generalize to unseen data with professional games, that seems like a case of overfitting to a dataset only containing amateur games. In this case the expected value network may be different for amateur games than professional games. Is there something I'm missing?

The value/policy model includes a few hundred thousand amateur games, and a few hundred million games of self-play. Once AlphaGo beat Fan Hui those would have been games of self-play versus the equivalent of a professional. So overfitting is probably not a problem. I think it's a basic incentive mismatch - MCTS algorithms tend to like close games, whereas humans will try crazy moves when losing to throw off their opp…

Neither of those are really evidence overfitting isn't a problem.

You tell whether overfitting is a problem by evaluating performance on a held-out test set.

Re: Lee Sedol Beats AlphaGo in Game 4

#112

The crucial play here seems to have been Lee Seedol's "tesuji" at White 78. From what I understand this phrase in Go means something like "clever play" but is something like sneaking up on your opponent with something that they did not see coming. Deepmind CEO confirmed that the machine actually missed the implications of this move as the calculated win percentage did not shift until later. https://twitter.com/demish…

AlphaGo was in over time in game 2.

To add to this, it seemed to have no problem makkng moves wothin the 60 second window (at that lte tage of the game).

Re: Lee Sedol Beats AlphaGo in Game 4

#113
post #102
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it does seem like it is suboptimal behavior to keep making obviously dumb plays instead of attempting a comeback like a professional human would.

Speculating that the reinforcement learning phase reinforced all the best winning strategies but had few examples of weak positions out of which the AI had to fight.

AlphaGo lost half the games it played against itself, so it's not like it doesn't have millions of training examples. However maybe it didn't learn very well how to recover once it's losing, but rather concentrated on learning how to avoid that in the first place.

Re: Lee Sedol Beats AlphaGo in Game 4

#114
Don't want to sound all Conspiracy Theory but somehow this feels planned.. It plays into DeepMind's hand to not have the machine completely trouncing the human. It's less scary and keeps people engaged further into the future.

Also seems in-line with the way Demis was "rooting" for the human this time – they already won so now they focus on PR.

Re: Lee Sedol Beats AlphaGo in Game 4

#116

Here's the post-game conference livestream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCALyQRN3hw At the end, Lee asked to play white in the last match, and the Deepmind guys agreed. He feels that AlphaGo is stronger as white, so he views it as more worthwhile to play as black and beat AlphaGo. Conference over, see you all tomorrow.

Lee asked to be black, because there's 7.5 points advantage for the white who follows the black, and Lee won as a white this time.

Given that Lee was black in games one (due to luck of the draw) and three I expected he would be in game five as well. Perhaps the system permits loser to choose?

Re: Lee Sedol Beats AlphaGo in Game 4

#118
post #66

Apparently AlphaGo made two rather stupid moves on the sidelines, judging from the commentary. Which incidentally is the kind of edgecase one would expect machine learning against itself is bad at learning, since there is a possibility that AlphaGo just tries to avoid such situations. It will be interesting to see if top players are able to exploit such weaknesses once AlphaGo is better understood by high level Go pl…

From my perspective as a weak player, those stupid moves are the sorts of moves I would make if I already knew I was losing (but not by a huge margin, otherwise resign) but I was in byo-yomi overtime. It settles already dead stones and gives me a bit more time to keep searching for a better move that could maybe turn the game around, and if the opponent fails to make the obvious response then I can turn the game around from their blunder. The only odd thing is AlphaGo makes these moves without having entered byo-yomi time.

Re: Lee Sedol Beats AlphaGo in Game 4

#119
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, the "label bias" is more of a structured learning / joint learning term that is present in natural language processing. But reinforcement learning suffers only if you do the learning to minimize local loss of the decision (label) - if you try to build a classifier that minimizes its loss on local decisions, instead on sequence of decisions. Their value policy network isn't trained jointly and can compound errors…

Again, I don't think we're talking about the same concept. I also fail to see how training over an entire trajectory is going to help you with trajectories you've never seen. Also, these nets are definitely trained with discounted long-term rewards.

They train using trajectories but train them to guess the trajectory locally, not globally. Discounted long-term rewards are just a hack, they aren't joint learning.

The concept of label bias, or decision bias is a joint/structured learning concept. It is a machine learning concept, it has nothing to do with the application. There are training modes with mathematical guarantee that the local decisions will minimize the future regret.

Joint learning is done not on the whole permutation but on the markov-chain of decisions, which is sometimes a good enough assumption. For example, the value policy network of AlphaGo is percisely a Markov chain, given a state, tell me which next state has the highest probability of victory. The search then tries to find the sequence of moves that will maximize the probability, and then it makes the best local decision (one move). It works like limited depth min-max or beam search. They do rollouts (play the whole game) to train the value network, but it is now a question if they train it to minimize the local loss of the made decisions, or if they train it to minimize the future regret of a local decision. As I've stated before, minimizing joint loss over the sequence, or minimizing local loss over each of made decisions, is exactly influencing if there will be bias or not.

The whole point of reinforcement learning is to create a huge enough dataset to overcome the trajectories-not-seen problem. The training of the models for playing Go is entirely a whole different kind of a problem.

Now when they have hundreds of millions of meaningful games they can skip the reinforcement learning and just learn from the games.

The illustration of the "label bias" problem is available in one source I referenced. Terms like compounding errors and unseen state are there. The "label bias" is present only in discriminative models not generative ones. Which means that AlphaGo - being a discriminative model, can suffer from "label bias" if it wasn't trained to avoid it.

Re: Lee Sedol Beats AlphaGo in Game 4

#120

Relevant tweets from Demis; Lee Sedol is playing brilliantly! #AlphaGo thought it was doing well, but got confused on move 87. We are in trouble now... Mistake was on move 79, but #AlphaGo only came to that realisation on around move 87 When I say 'thought' and 'realisation' I just mean the output of #AlphaGo value net. It was around 70% at move 79 and then dived on move 87 Lee Sedol wins game 4!!! Congratulations! H…

I'll risk assumption that somebody from Deepmind team is reading this.

Guys, please, publish charts of win prob estimated by alpha go in time during these games. Some heatmap telling which moves did it consider as best for both sides during the games would also be cool, but that's surely more time consuming to prepare.

It would be great to be able to have such things for top pro tournaments in the future.

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