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Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

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Re: Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

#111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The USSR and the US have enriched probably a million tons of it by now, the EU has enrichment capacity of about 20,000 tSWU which they used to enrich Uranium to about 4% (some to higher levels for research/breeders/medical plants). They are the 2nd largest producer of low and high level of enriched Uranium in the world, and also due to various security blunders also helped to proliferate nuclear technology. It's expe…

> The nuclear deal with Iran pretty much means that they'll need to enrich Uranium for 2-5 years then run their reactor for 6 months till it burns out and repeat which is obviously nonsensical. So the deal was just for show? Surely both sides are aware of this specific issue?

It was mentioned couple of times on the news and in various places i would assume. A quick google search shows relevant result in the top findings from earlier this year.

http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/feb/25/...

Not sure what politifact's standing is exactly, from the Wikipedia page there isn't much contraventions surrounding it and it seems to be hated by both right and left wing so it might be "ok".

As for the Iran deal, well it is some what of a show it is a breakout state and always will be however it doesn't mean that the deal won't be effective if it will be used as a gateway for further political concessions within the state. For the time being Iran is not really owning up to the deal it's halted the dismantling of it's centrifuges http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/10/us-iran-nuclear-de... and it's just the recent hurdle in the implementation of the deal. The deal was a big win for the US as it needed to regain some form of legitimacy on the world stage and it at least gave them couple of more years till they'll actually have to deal with the issue, for Iran it's also not a bad delay even if they'll have to slow down the process if in fact they are building a bomb, as their delivery systems aren't complete and their long range missile program wasn't progressing at the same pace. If it will end up well or will it blow up in everyone's face only time will tell. The Iranian deal was inevitable China and Russia wanted it, and most importantly the EU was in desperate need for new markets and new energy sources especially with relations with Russia circling the drain. If the sanctions couldn't hold Iran could do what it wants anyhow, this way the US has at least some way to try to keep it accountable to something and at least some way to justify a military action if one would ever take place (even tho i doubt it could be ever considered successful, not at the usual expected costs as set by the US public anyhow).

Re: Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

#112
post #31

In the article: "The FBI has privately discounted Moldovan claims that radioactive materials seized in more recent smuggling incidents here were being sought by the Islamic State terrorist group. " Everything's safe, then? Let's investigate: According to the Moldovan police presentation: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2449125-moldova-law-... The person interested in buying was of Arab-Islamic origin, Yosif F…

Why is this being downvoted?

because Sharia law is a non sequitur?

Re: Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

#113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Previously in the article they mentioned that this 10kg of Uranium believed to be for sale on the black market is a fifth of what you would need for a Hiroshima-type weapon but it's just about enough for a well designed implosion nuke. With 60kg of HEU I could build Little Boy by myself in my garage with parts I can get at Home Depot and Cabela's. With 10kg of HEU I could build Fat Man with a breeder reactor, a cou…

Welcome to the list .

There is enough information floating around for almost any reasonably competent engineer with a knack for physics (or vice versa) to build an implosion device. The list is long.

Re: Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

#114
post #59

If western intelligence knows about this and wants to get it off the black market, why don't they just buy it themselves? Surely the criminals selling it don't care where the money comes from.

i'm guessing they are just waiting for the auction to be near the end so they don't have to spend too much outbiding the terorists.

speaking of that anyone manage to see when it ends? this new silk road redesign is really confusing me.

Re: Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

#115
post #70
post #59

If western intelligence knows about this and wants to get it off the black market, why don't they just buy it themselves? Surely the criminals selling it don't care where the money comes from.

> But no one in the West knows exactly who has this nuclear explosive material, and where they may be Probably because of this. I'm also quite certain that the criminals do care very much where the money comes from. Most criminals I know understand this is the difference between a pay day and a prison sentence.

Surely the US has a few spies with deep enough cover to pass as arms dealers? Or have I been watching too much TV?

Re: Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

#116
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the 60's the government enlisted two fresh physics PHDs to see if they could design a plausible bomb, as a stand in a random country. In they end they succeeded in creating a detailed plan, and it didn't even take them that long. There's much more public info out there now, and machining has improved significantly in the past 50 years, so the main barrier to building a crude bomb is material rather than the expert…

You could probably 3d print a device now to a high degree of precision, after modeling it in SolidWorks.

I know 3D printing is fashionable these days, but is there a reason it would be any better than boring old CNC milling that's been around for decades?

Re: Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

#117
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is a weirdly common misconception that the agreement in question requires the US and UK to protect Ukraine's territorial integrity. All it does is require them to respect it. This is the actual wording, taken from your link: "The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against…

The whole crux is the line you've left as a parenthetical. "The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim…

That's fair, but I see two big problems with this.

First, to what degree can we say Ukraine is threatened by nuclear weapons, when we know (not because of empty promises, but just the realities of nuclear weapons) that nukes are not on the table? Would we say that Iraq or Afghanistan were threatened by nuclear weapons? I certainly wouldn't.

Second, let's say the mere possession of nukes by the attacking party does qualify as a threat. The US and UK then go to the UN Security Council and seek assistance for Ukraine. Russia has veto power there, so this will do nothing useful whatsoever. You could say that they ought to do as they promised even if it's useless, but it would still do nothing to actually protect Ukraine.

Re: Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

#118
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> many ex-soviet states (i.e. Ukraine) were stuck with a nuclear arsenal they couldn't maintain and didn't want. An important side point: Ukraine definitely wanted nuclear weapons, in particular as a viable threat against being re-annexed by Russia. Ukraine gave them up only after receiving a solemn promise by the US and UK that they would protect Ukraine's territorial integrity. "On December 5, 1994 the leaders of U…

It is a weirdly common misconception that the agreement in question requires the US and UK to protect Ukraine's territorial integrity. All it does is require them to respect it. This is the actual wording, taken from your link: "The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against…

It's not an agreement that requires anything. It's just a memorandum (IOW a memo) no more binding than the famous verbal promise not to extend NATO towards Russia's borders.

Re: Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

#119

So, when the USSR disbanded, many ex-soviet states (i.e. Ukraine) were stuck with a nuclear arsenal they couldn't maintain and didn't want. In theory, Russia took the warheads back and looked after them. In practice, there was an initial period of everything that wasn't bolted down disappearing from silos, and the response was to fill them with concrete to prevent any further access. What then happened is gangs came…

> many ex-soviet states (i.e. Ukraine) were stuck with a nuclear arsenal they couldn't maintain and didn't want. An important side point: Ukraine definitely wanted nuclear weapons, in particular as a viable threat against being re-annexed by Russia. Ukraine gave them up only after receiving a solemn promise by the US and UK that they would protect Ukraine's territorial integrity. "On December 5, 1994 the leaders of U…

If you read your link you'd see that it couldn't actually launch the weapons, only the RF could.

Re: Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

#120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1939 we declared war. We had virtually no army at the time and virtually no air force. Certainly nothing that could have defeated Hilter's forces.

That would be a reason why they didn't help Poland, not something that made it so that they did help Poland (as was claimed above). I also don't believe that's true. At the time, the French had about 5 million men, 4,200 tanks, 11,000 guns, and 3,000 airplanes. The Germans had about 4 million men, 3,500 tanks, 7,000 guns, and 4,000 airplanes. That's rough parity, not even counting the UK's potential contribution. And…

Your numbers are meaningless. The German weapons were modern. The French were not and the UK's were virtually non-existent.

The UK had no reason to declare war in 1939 other than their promise to defend Poland. We went into a global war that lasted 6 years, took half a million of our lives, bankrupted us and caused us to lose a global empire (well that was a good side effect). Bear in mind that this was ~20 years after a previous war after which the general view in the UK was that we would never fight another.

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