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Uber has defeated Bill de Blasio’s plan to rein them in

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Re: Uber has defeated Bill de Blasio’s plan to rein them in

#101
post #64

I don't really like Uber's business practices but they do fill an essential niche in New York City. A couple years ago, the city allowed independent car services to paint their cars green and take street hails. They previously did this, of course, but it wasn't legal. And of course, not every "black car" became a green cab, so this still happens. It's the standard way to get around the outer boroughs of New York. I w…

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Uber drivers can see where you are as part of evaluating your ride request. Consequently, though your ride request might be offered to several drivers before being accepted, you are not likely to be assigned a driver who cancels later because of your location. Furthermore, Uber drivers are not allowed to refuse more than a certain small percentage of rides, so drivers who do this more than rarely will be kicked out.

It's more likely that a driver will be reluctant to go where you want to go. Though this can happen, Uber passengers will rate the driver poorly, and they'll be kicked out.

Uber's star rating system and insistence on keeping drivers only with good ratings is part of why people enjoy using the service. Drivers can't pull shit like that and get away with it.

Re: Uber has defeated Bill de Blasio’s plan to rein them in

#102

The thing about Uber I don’t understand is how they are going to defend their monopoly once they acquire it. Assuming they eventually win all the legal battles and drive all other taxi and taxi-like services out of business then how are they going to stop anyone else from entering their market? Each transport market is effectively isolated (you don’t hail a driver from SF to get around NYC). This means any new entran…

What do you consider "monopoly profits?" As of the 2013 leak, Uber was grossing $1bn in revenue [1]. Uber takes a 20% cut from each transaction, and has an extremely lean cost structure - drivers pay for gas, insurance, amortize vehicles, don't get any benefits, etc. Even if we assume costs to be 10% of revenue (which they aren't), Uber still would have earned a gross profit of $100m in 2013. Judging by Uber's current $50bn valuation, their revenues have grown anywhere from 3x-5x over the past 2 years. [2]

So by my rough estimations they're making $300-$500m in yearly profit (hardly loss-leadership), and they still haven't driven Lyft or conventional cabs out of service. This is also without taking geographical expansion into consideration. Uber is sitting on a goldmine of a market that it has barely begun to tap.

So what if Uber does manage to establish itself as a monopoly? Then we look to the price elasticity of demand for Uber's service, which measures change in demand over change in price, aka how bad people actually need the service. Cabs are essential to a large group of people (businessmen, tourists, blind, etc.) and in high demand for almost anyone else that lives in a large city such as NY or SF, where it is uncommon to own a car and often inconvenient to take the metro. Therefore they will have a large bandwidth in which to raise their prices in large cities before users start to disengage with the service, opting instead to walk or take the metro. Smaller towns, where people don't use cabs as much, do not present a large market for Uber, but it costs them next to nothing to get users and drivers to download the app, therefore there are no prohibitive costs of investment stopping them from expanding operations other than a natural lack of demand.

If they jack prices up too high for an extended period of time in the cities, another company will enter the market and pick up the churned customers, much as Uber did in the broken, monopolistic taxi market.

So ultimately they will be able to make a very healthy profit, and will not need to worry too much - unless the government decides to intervene with some serious anti-trust legislation, but it probably won't as long as Uber is paying a cut to the cities that it operates out of.

You are right that there are low barriers to entry in this market - it's why most drivers do both Uber and Lyft. The underlying technology is the same, and the capital (drivers) is not proprietary and can be shared between different companies. However, if Uber were to stipulate that drivers sign an employment contract, and then enforce that they were not working for the competition, this would raise the barriers to entry for competitors. Likewise, there isn't much differentiation in the taxi market. It's nice if a driver comes with water and a nice-smelling car, but ultimately it's not a deal breaker.

Ultimately, the network effect is key. Get the most users on your service, get the most drivers driving for you, beat the competition, then erect barriers to entry around your castle. Just don't piss the peasants off too much, or they might try and revolt :)

[1] http://techcrunch.com/2013/12/04/leaked-uber-numbers-which-w...

[2] http://www.forbes.com/sites/chrismyers/2015/05/13/decoding-u...

Re: Uber has defeated Bill de Blasio’s plan to rein them in

#103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When do you drop the tidbit of information related to the whole reason you got in? /just moved to NYC

After you're inside and the door is closed. This is the only way you can get to the airport during the "shift change" that's right around PM rush hour. Nobody will take you there if you tell them you want to go there. That said the new Q70 bus from Jackson Heights (7/E/F/M/R) is quite efficient, and I don't bother with cabs anymore. Not worth paying someone $40 to bitch and moan about going to the airport when the MT…

"Jackson Heights (7/E/F/M/R)"

Also ten minutes from Penn Station on the LIRR, whose Woodside station is next to the subway station (a bit more expensive than the subway, though).

Re: Uber has defeated Bill de Blasio’s plan to rein them in

#104
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As others have said, if the cab has the "on duty" light on, just get in. If, and the happens a lot late at night, the cab does not have the on duty light on you can negotiate. I've gotten steep discounts or even free rides for agreeing to do stuff like pick up the drivers wife off the clock on the way home. Like everything in New York, everything is negotiable.

But don't think you're safe there. If you have the slightest hesitation at all in your tonality, the driver will all of the sudden get a case of "I don't know that location, can you give me directions". I experienced that when I first moved here back to back one night because I didn't understand the "process" of getting a cab in New York. Point is, cabs are completely shady, and nearly all have horrible service. Sinc…

Agreed. I'm native, born and raised, and learned about "gypsy cabs", "car service" and how to hail a yellow cab back when yellow cabs still had "jump seats". Uber has democratized what affluent people have always known, money can buy anything, including someone to drive you somewhere.

Re: Uber has defeated Bill de Blasio’s plan to rein them in

#105
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you have enough liquidity you can implement pools and cut prices in half. It is not easy to compete against.

My god I hope this is not Uber’s plan. While this would actually work it is very, very illegal [1]. I can’t see the USA government turning a blind eye to such blatant antitrust activities, but after what they have let the banks get away with maybe it would work. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_antitrust_law

"Pools" are multiple riders.

Re: Uber has defeated Bill de Blasio’s plan to rein them in

#106
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's pretty much a natural monopoly and very difficult to compete against once in place.

How is it a natural monopoly? A natural monopoly is something like the electrical poles and wires. I can't see how Uber could even become a normal monopoly even if everything went their way.

In most of their cities they are already a monopoly or near monopoly. Liquidity is a hugely massive advantage for both drivers and riders.

Re: Uber has defeated Bill de Blasio’s plan to rein them in

#107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is rare to see, of not impossible, a real monopoly in a free market. Uber has to compete to win customers, if they artificially raise their prices to where people will not pay, people will choose a different form of transportation.

Yes this is the problem. Unless investors don’t care about returns how will Uber extract the profits required to justify their current valuation?

Firstly, I have no inside knowledge of their complete model, just assuming. Travis has said that the early markets are 'profitable', the early markets are also their most competitive. So the 20-30% model they have now should allow profitability in all the 300+ cities they're in. I'm assuming the margins are very tight, and that they have to do a lot of volume to be hugely profitable, which they're fast approaching.

Re: Uber has defeated Bill de Blasio’s plan to rein them in

#108

In the last few years NYC has closed stretches of Broadway (a significant north-south corridor) to traffic, squeezed vehicle lane widths to add bike lanes and introduced several measures to slow or impede traffic so the city is safer for pedestrians. These are all very good things, but they come with a cost. Reducing the surface area of roads does not magically remove cars from the roads, it just creates congestion a…

> Reducing the surface area of roads does not magically remove cars from the roads, it just creates congestion and traffic.

Most traffic theory maintains that this actually does magically reduce traffic. People who would have driven now decide that there's too much traffic and find another way. Similarly, expanding highways doesn't reduce congestion, the number of cars just increases to the previous levels of congestion.

Re: Uber has defeated Bill de Blasio’s plan to rein them in

#109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think (not an economist) but this is what happens when a market is disrupted, new players enter with a lower cost than incumbents, clean up, this encourages other new players to enter at slightly below, first player then drops to match and eventually you reach a new stable equilibrium, in lots of markets that is by one company winning and buying out the others (commodities like Sugar and Salt seem to go this way, i…

Industries like sugar and salt are commodity industries where prices are driven by costs. There are economies of scale that allow one player to dominate a market and prevent new entrants. Uber does not have this advantage since each market is effectively small and isolated (there are thousands of taxi markets in the USA alone) and most of the costs are unit costs, not fixed costs over which they can scale. Any compet…

That was pretty much what I was saying yes :).

Re: Uber has defeated Bill de Blasio’s plan to rein them in

#110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think (not an economist) but this is what happens when a market is disrupted, new players enter with a lower cost than incumbents, clean up, this encourages other new players to enter at slightly below, first player then drops to match and eventually you reach a new stable equilibrium, in lots of markets that is by one company winning and buying out the others (commodities like Sugar and Salt seem to go this way, i…

> laptop market A complete sidebar discussion, but although there are many, many laptop manufacturers, one company is estimated to make only 10% of the revenues but more than 35% of the profits, leaving the manufacturers of the other 90% of the laptops to divide 65% of the profits. So... It is possible that in some markets, a company can drive operational efficiencies to be grossly profitable even if it ends up with…

Operational efficiencies, sure, but brand plays a STRONG hand in said company's profitability as well I believe.
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