Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate • Hacker News Board

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#101

Post by thanksgiving » Sun, May 31, 2015, 12:18 PM UTC

sudeepj wrote: post #44

I am from India, which is second most populated country in the world. A generation ago, it was common for a couple having 3 to 4 kids. But now, even here most couples (in urban areas atleast) plan for atmost 1 kid. The sheer pace with which life moves has increased compared to one generation back. Couples (especially when both are working) simply do not have money, energy & time. India is not a developed country and…

According to Google, total fertility rate is at 2.50 as of 2012. This is good news.

Apparently,according to The Hindu at least two populous states - UP and Bihar - have tfr above 3. Is this a matter of concern in terms of politics and public policy?

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#102

Post by legulere » Sun, May 31, 2015, 12:47 PM UTC

jtzhou wrote: post #3

It is interesting how a country with a lot of seemingly positive aspects -- abundant natural resources and fresh water, temperate climate, stabile economy and low unemployment, and great infrastructure -- cannot convince its citizens to procreate, whereas a country like Yemen with little in development is exploding in population (doubling every 20 years). When given the choice, it seems humans have children more out…

Actually Germany still has rising population through (mostly inner-EU) migration.

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#103

Post by theandrewbailey » Sun, May 31, 2015, 12:54 PM UTC

sudeepj wrote: post #44

I am from India, which is second most populated country in the world. A generation ago, it was common for a couple having 3 to 4 kids. But now, even here most couples (in urban areas atleast) plan for atmost 1 kid. The sheer pace with which life moves has increased compared to one generation back. Couples (especially when both are working) simply do not have money, energy & time. India is not a developed country and…

> A generation ago, it was common for a couple having 3 to 4 kids. But now, even here most couples (in urban areas atleast) plan for atmost 1 kid.

So the birth rate is decreasing.

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#104

Post by jokoon » Sun, May 31, 2015, 12:56 PM UTC

isn't this why germany allows more immigration ?

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#105

Post by AnthonyMouse » Sun, May 31, 2015, 12:57 PM UTC

joshuapants wrote: post #42

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "Who are we going to forcibly sterilize to maintain that level?" That's unnecessarily inflammatory. We could substantially reduce the birth rate by providing everyone with free birth control and promoting its usage. If that isn't sufficient we could pay money to anyone who has a vasectomy. There are still ethical questions there, but it's a far cry from rounding up poor people and sterilizing them against their wil…

> We could substantially reduce the birth rate by providing everyone with free birth control and promoting its usage. The efforts to increase condom usage in sub-Saharan Africa show that this might not be very easy at all, and this assumes that the people who have children in those areas don't actually want to have children which probably isn't accurate. > If that isn't sufficient we could pay money to anyone who has…

> The efforts to increase condom usage in sub-Saharan Africa show that this might not be very easy at all, and this assumes that the people who have children in those areas don't actually want to have children which probably isn't accurate.

It assumes that some of the people who have children in those areas don't actually want to have children, which probably is accurate.

Moreover, the efforts to increase condom usage are targeted at reducing AIDS and other STIs. If you want to reduce birth rates you promote birth control pills. Particularly in an area where the legal system puts most of the economic burden of raising children on the mother.

> Economic coercion is still force, and still ethically shaky.

I fail to see how offering to pay someone $5,000 to have a vasectomy is less economically coercive than requiring them to pay $10,000+/year in child support for the next two decades if they get a woman pregnant.

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#106

Post by gahahaha » Sun, May 31, 2015, 12:59 PM UTC

jokoon wrote: post #104

isn't this why germany allows more immigration ?

No - that has probably more to do with guilt after WWII than the low birth rate. A low birth rate (within limits) is obviously a good thing - the world is over populated as it is.

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#107

Post by imjustsaying » Sun, May 31, 2015, 1:02 PM UTC

bitwize wrote: post #30

joshuapants wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The world is not overpopulated by a long shot. There may be a lot of overconsumption in certain regions, but that's a different issue.

Currently it takes 1.2 earths' worth of resources to support the earth's population, which means the earth cannot support all of us without starting to deplete resources. So yes, the planet IS overpopulated.

>Currently it takes 1.2 earths' worth of resources to support the earth's population

So the earth we are living on is in fact 1.2 earths, which is in fact 1.44 earths, which is in fact 1.728 earths, which is in fact 2.0736 earths, which is in fact at least two earths?

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#108

Post by Zigurd » Sun, May 31, 2015, 1:08 PM UTC

Germany and Japan are densely populated. Except for the economic dislocations of population decline, nothing bad will happen to German or Japanese culture or society if their populations have peaked and are declining.

China is also nearing zero population growth. That's when things will really start to change.

On top of that, the consequences of missing population stability projections on the high side are much worse than missing them on the low side.

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#109

Post by Zigurd » Sun, May 31, 2015, 1:14 PM UTC

bitwize wrote: post #30

joshuapants wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The world is not overpopulated by a long shot. There may be a lot of overconsumption in certain regions, but that's a different issue.

Currently it takes 1.2 earths' worth of resources to support the earth's population, which means the earth cannot support all of us without starting to deplete resources. So yes, the planet IS overpopulated.

I would not understate the risks of overpopulation. BUT this "1.2 Earths" thing is singularly useless. It could be of no concern in some domains, and much worse in others. "1.2 Earths" says nothing useful.

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#110

Post by mpyne » Sun, May 31, 2015, 1:18 PM UTC

thanksgiving wrote: post #99

xaver wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does that make it not a problem for Germany? Are you talking about Germany the landmass? Germany the state? Germany the nation or the ethnicity? Cause, I mean, sure its no problem for the landmass or the state. For the nation/ethnicity though, it means extinction.

Nations are not ethnicity. Did you mean culture?

Well, that is very close to the meaning of 'nation', which is why international relations students often talk of the nation-state; the nation is the cultural community, the state is the national-level government.

Some nations have no state, such as the Kurds.

Some states have multiple nations within, such as the USA (which is where the hyphenated-American thing had actually started; it made perfect sense to speak of a German-American or an Irish-American, because these persons would often merge elements of both nationalities).