Tell Sam Altman: I will take your bet • Hacker News Board

Re: Tell Sam Altman: I will take your bet

#101

Post by bmelton » Thu, Mar 26, 2015, 8:39 PM UTC

TimSchumann wrote: post #97

bmelton wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You honestly believe that any one of those companies, none of which has been around for more than ten years, could reach a market cap of $200B within 5 years? That's not the bet. The bet is that they will, in aggregate be worth $200B. "Proposition 1: On January 1st, 2020, these companies will be worth at least $200B in aggregate." Edit: Can't read. The parent is in response to the grandparent, not the bet.

He was referencing my statement above, not the bet.

Thanks for the correction. Edited to reflect that.

Re: Tell Sam Altman: I will take your bet

#102

Post by howsta » Thu, Mar 26, 2015, 8:40 PM UTC

sama wrote: post #88

chernevik wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The bet is a punctuation point on a discussion. Sam is already taking risk on current valuations, another $100K here or there isn't going to move the needle. The real stakes are reputation for prognostication. And the point to me is getting VCs on the other side of the debate to put a public stake in the ground, and hopefully give their arguments for why. So I don't find this taker particularly interesting. In the co…

a fair point. i didn't define "VC" well enough. if another VC from a top-tier fund with at least $500MM under management would like to take the bet, i will make the same bet once more.

The bet also serves as an interesting hedge for anyone whose net worth is already heavily correlated with the success of the tech sector (which certainly includes VCs). 100k is not enough to really matter to a GP at a 500MM fund, especially if it goes to charity either way. But there are plenty of smaller VCs or even startup founders (including myself) who would do that deal not because they're skeptical of tech's fundamentals, but as a way to counteract exposure to an overall macro/tech downfall.

Re: Tell Sam Altman: I will take your bet

#103

Post by TimSchumann » Thu, Mar 26, 2015, 8:43 PM UTC

gitah wrote: post #40

TimSchumann wrote: post #32

I'm surprised at someone actually taking the other side of this bet as I thought Sam was _very_ conservative on his projections. 1) Any one of those companies (besides Pinterest IMO) could conceivably achieve a market valuation of $200B by Jan 1, 2020. 2) Again any one of those companies (besides Teespring IMO) could conceivably achieve a market valuation of $27B by Jan 1, 2020. 3) Easy win for Sam.

1) Do you really think Dropbox, with all the big co competition, can grow past its current valuation? Snapchat would have been a better choice in this list.

Dropbox would have been my next closest to the bottom on that list, and while I think a $200B valuation on its own for Dropbox is a bit outlandish, it's conceivable.

I thought about it like this...

Would I bet that every company on this list will do worse than doubling their valuation over the next 5 years?

Re: Tell Sam Altman: I will take your bet

#104

Post by gautamnarula » Thu, Mar 26, 2015, 8:43 PM UTC

mdlm wrote: post #68

gautamnarula wrote: post #19

Unrelated, but are you the same Michael de la Maza who wrote Rapid Chess Improvement?

Yes.

I didn't follow the program exactly, but it was influential in my training (and quick improvement) during my teen years.

It's a shame you stopped playing. I'm sure it would've been interesting to see how the program would have to adapt as you aimed for 2200 and beyond.

Re: Tell Sam Altman: I will take your bet

#105

Post by mdlm » Thu, Mar 26, 2015, 8:51 PM UTC

sama wrote: post #90

mdlm wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sam, Fund is $500K. Investments are listed below. Happy to provide LLC documents. Please enter into longbets. Michael Fitocracy https://www.fitocracy.com/ Empreware https://empreware.com/ Modify http://modifywatches.com/ Ecovent https://www.ecoventsystems.com/ Amino http://narvii.com/ seedchange https://www.seedchange.com/ ROCKI http://www.myrocki.com/ CoolChip http://coolchiptechnologies.com/ edTrips http://www.book…

can you send me your email address? i'm sama@

Sam,

My email address is michael.delamaza@gmail.com

Michael

Re: Tell Sam Altman: I will take your bet

#106

Post by GeneT » Thu, Mar 26, 2015, 8:53 PM UTC

snowwrestler wrote: post #83

adrianpike wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SpaceX alone makes me not want to bet against Sam on point #1.

SpaceX is dependent on government contracts for their business, which is risky. Government contracts could go away, or get reduced, for a bunch of different reasons--some of which have nothing to do with how good you are.

While they are dependant on government contracts they are also in a industry with huge barriers of entry. On top of that their main competition had a rocket explode earlier tho year, so I would say their outlook is pretty positive.

Re: Tell Sam Altman: I will take your bet

#107

Post by jmtame » Thu, Mar 26, 2015, 8:56 PM UTC

kmeves wrote: post #12

I think it's pompous for both you and Sam Altman to be wasting our threads with these bets.

this comment reads like the "why is this on HN?" comments, which are against the guidelines. people are voting this up and they find it interesting, and that's why it's on the home page. just click the flag button.

Re: Tell Sam Altman: I will take your bet

#108

Post by jrometty » Thu, Mar 26, 2015, 8:57 PM UTC

dspeyer wrote: post #64

javabank wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$100k is going to a charity one way or another. That's a good thing no matter how you cut it.

Am I the only one hoping they have the same favourite charity?

nope :)

Re: Tell Sam Altman: I will take your bet

#109

Post by myblake » Thu, Mar 26, 2015, 9:00 PM UTC

howsta wrote: post #102

sama wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

a fair point. i didn't define "VC" well enough. if another VC from a top-tier fund with at least $500MM under management would like to take the bet, i will make the same bet once more.

The bet also serves as an interesting hedge for anyone whose net worth is already heavily correlated with the success of the tech sector (which certainly includes VCs). 100k is not enough to really matter to a GP at a 500MM fund, especially if it goes to charity either way. But there are plenty of smaller VCs or even startup founders (including myself) who would do that deal not because they're skeptical of tech's fu…

Not sure I see why this is the case since the money's going to charity.

Re: Tell Sam Altman: I will take your bet

#110

Post by dkrich » Thu, Mar 26, 2015, 9:07 PM UTC

TimSchumann wrote: post #96

dkrich wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seriously? As I write this, Microsoft, the largest purveyor of enterprise software in the world, is worth roughly $340 billion. Oracle? Less than $200 billion. Hell, Amazon, the company that Dropbox runs on isn't worth $200 billion. You honestly believe that any one of those companies, none of which has been around for more than ten years, could reach a market cap of $200B within 5 years? Either you are incredibly be…

Yes, seriously. Which company is anyone's guess, and some are more likely than others, but it's conceivable a single company from that list could achieve a $200B valuation on a 5 year time scale.

My point isn't really to take anything away from those companies. They're all very impressive. It's more that I am surprised that people don't seem to think that $200B is an incredibly large amount of money. It's more than three Ford Motor Company's. Or $80 billion more valuable than Cisco Systems, in many ways the backbone of the entire internet. It's just an incredibly large valuation to achieve for any company let alone in a five-year time frame.