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Mobile is Eating the World

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Re: Mobile is Eating the World

#101
post #30
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if I had a full scale performance in a cell phone with great docking capabilities, I probably would rather have a separate desktop computer for working. Just being able to compartmentalize "social stuff" on my phone, and "work stuff" on a desktop tends to vastly improve my performance.

Isn't that easily solved with logins?

It's a psychological thing, not a technical problem.

Re: Mobile is Eating the World

#102
post #23

My smartphone has 2 Gigs of RAM and most of it is wasted. Games on phones aren't even interesting because my fingers slide right off the screen when the action gets fast. Give me a PC with 2 Gigs of RAM and I can do amazing things with it, a mouse and a keyboard. Every single phone app I use is an exercise in futility or it feels that way. Touch is a terrible HID. Smart phones are handy when you don't have anything e…

Remember when phones had keyboards? Like, actual physical keyboards that slid out when you needed them and tucked away neatly when you didn't?

I really miss them :-(

Re: Mobile is Eating the World

#103
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Yes the growth of mobile is explosive and, in some cases, it's displacing older technology. I think the mischaracterization is of what mobile is replacing. It isn't the PC. A PC is primarily a computing device, an iPhone is primarily a communications device. The iPhone and iPad aren't replacing PCs, they're replacing newspaper, radio and telephone. They're only replacing PCs to the extent that the PC had already pa…

Very well put. In my experience tablets are also replacing books and tv. I suspect that in a lot of houses the parents are now using tablets, the kids are using PCs/laptops and the tv is mostly off. Well this is how it is in our house :). Our tv now exists for netflix via chromecast once or twice a week.

My experience of watching kids (ranging from 3 to 15 years old) use this stuff is, in order of level of use/desire to own: Smartphones, tablets, , PCs/laptops. As a proportion of use, parents are more likely to use a PC/laptop than kids.

For kids, their default go to device isn't the PC. That's what they use when they have to do something which isn't great on a tablet.

The other interesting thing is what they think "isn't great on a tablet". Non-professional photo or video editing - if you're a 15 year old today, that's a tablet thing, not a PC thing. A lot of gaming is phone/tablet rather than a PC.

A PC looks to me to be primarily homework using something MS Office-ish.

Re: Mobile is Eating the World

#104
post #92
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very well put. In my experience tablets are also replacing books and tv. I suspect that in a lot of houses the parents are now using tablets, the kids are using PCs/laptops and the tv is mostly off. Well this is how it is in our house :). Our tv now exists for netflix via chromecast once or twice a week.

I have this theory the so called breakthrough of Apple in the TV business is the iPad and not a big 5k TV screen.

Ben Evans himself says that Eric Schmidt was right when he said Google would own the TV market a few years back - he (Schmidt) just didn't realise it would be Android tablets rather than GoogleTV.

Re: Mobile is Eating the World

#105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you look at the biomechanics, it does seem like a keyboard + mouse + >=20" screen is the optimal setup for doing actual work. A keyboard is simply the most efficient way to get information into a computer (the exception is that some graphics editors work might work better with a multitouch screen, it will be interesting to see if someone builds a touch-first photoshop killer). That said, there might be a convergen…

Your assumption, which I think is wrong, is that WPM (or maybe APM) is the bottleneck for most work. I suspect reading/comprehension, problem solving, planning, usability, and access to the right tool, discovery of tools, responsiveness of tools, teamwork... These things are much more likely to be the bottleneck. As a programmer, I suspect I could probably type the entirity of a days work into the computer in a half…

> Your assumption, which I think is wrong, is that WPM (or maybe APM) is the bottleneck for most work.

I don't care if it's a bottle neck. I want an efficient means of typing, so that I can keep my focus on other stuff. Maybe I could do a lot of my typing using a terrible interface like my phone, but it would be very aggravating.

Re: Mobile is Eating the World

#106
post #6

There is no point in drawing a distinction between the future of technology and the future of mobile. I find Evans' analysis of mobile a bit hyperbolic. Yes the growth of mobile is explosive and, in some cases, it's displacing older technology. But for a lot of use cases small touch screen devices are simply inadequate. It's probably true that a lot of people that used to use desktop or laptop computers just to check…

> People that need to edit complex spreadsheets, compose scores for films, analyze genomes, and render 3d effects need real computers. As a developer this kind of customer is in many ways a better customer to serve than a teen snapping selfies on a phone.

This is true, but the point is that this is now a very small (and very rapidly shrinking) fraction of what constitutes "computing".

Digital photography - used to involve a PC, doesn't need to now. Casual video editing (which lets remember is the vast majority of video editing) - used to involve a PC, doesn't need to now. E-mail and electronic communications - used to involve a PC, doesn't need to now. Basic productivity/note taking/sorting/keeping - used to... you get the picture.

It's not just that SmartPhones/tablets are replacing some PC tasks, it's that there is a whole new swath of users for whom what might previously have been thought of as computing has nothing to do with a PC.

Think of it in terms of shooting video. 40 years ago if you were shooting video there would be a good chance you were some sort of professional (or at the very least an enthusiastic amateur). Now, if you're shooting video, you're probably just a regular person. That doesn't mean that Smartphones have changed what professionals do or use, but it does mean that professionals are a very small fraction of the video now being shot.

The PC is the same, it's still there and still needed, it's just shrinking in terms of it's proportion of what's being done.

Re: Mobile is Eating the World

#107
post #46
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That strikes me as a lousy comparison. I could easily see a notebook with a detachable touchscreen and the proper OS (OSes?) being a useful machine (easier to see since a reasonably selling device actually exists). What if an iPad Air could simple attach to a MB Air chassis and only serve as the display when attached?

It's not a hardware limit that keeps mobile from wholly eating desktop, but a software one. Mobile OSes are intentionally crippled and locked down at the OS layer. You don't own or control your device, and only approved software can run. Android is a bit better than iOS in this respect, but not much. None of the mobile vendors have any incentive to change this, since it would mean forfeiting the App Store tax and for…

Most people don't see the lack of control over their mobile devices as a problem. Instead, they see it as a good thing, because their mobile devices are a lot more worry-free than their computers.

Re: Mobile is Eating the World

#108
post #6

There is no point in drawing a distinction between the future of technology and the future of mobile. I find Evans' analysis of mobile a bit hyperbolic. Yes the growth of mobile is explosive and, in some cases, it's displacing older technology. But for a lot of use cases small touch screen devices are simply inadequate. It's probably true that a lot of people that used to use desktop or laptop computers just to check…

I think there is u between two different concepts: 1) mobile will replace existing uses of technology; 2) most of the growth of technology will be in mobile.

The former is almost certainly false. I'm not going to be drafting briefs on an iPad any time soon, nor are CPA's going to be poring over spreadsheets on iPads. On the other hand, the proportion of overall technology users that need to do these things is shrinking because of all the new users coming online who use technology for consumer and social media purposes. E.g. there are far more kids using tablets and phones, who never used a desktop computer before, than there are CPA's hunkered down in front of giant Excel spreadsheets. So the latter is almost certainly true.

A good point of comparison is the 3D graphics market. Initially, it was primarily used for CAD, etc. But consumer 3D exploded, and because it was such a bigger market, all the R&D effort migrated in that direction. Workstation users still exist today, as many as ever did, but now they use re-purposed consumer hardware.

I wouldn't be surprised if the same thing happens to people who use desktop and laptop computers. I imagine I'll still be drafting briefs on my Mac 20 years from now, but my Mac will probably be re-purposed mobile technology.

Re: Mobile is Eating the World

#110
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>And smartphones don't override culture. What does override culture? Talking to the people around you? Newspapers? Books? Telephones? Peoples options? News? Culture: the arts and other manifestations of human intellectual achievement regarded collectively. If you don't think that an instantaneous audio/graphical communications device cannot be used as a means to effect culture you are highly confused about what cultu…

Another day, another snarky HN comment... As I said, smartphones morph culture in interesting ways. That's a direct product of having access to all of the things you mention. But people are still fundamentally people. If the world believes that war is necessary, smartphones aren't going to change that. And that belief was one of the main reasons for the dark ages.

HN hasn't changed. Endless, meaningless 'discussions' about non-issues that mainly reflect the inability of socially-inept and newbie programmers to understand the world around them.

To fill their lives, they leave paragraph after paragraph of text. It's fun to watch, but I hope things improve.

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