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Outsourced Jobs Are No Longer Cheap, So They're Being Automated

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Re: Outsourced Jobs Are No Longer Cheap, So They're Being Automated

#101

Post by mrow84 »

infinite8s wrote: post #94
mrow84 wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The issue here is not distribution of wealth, it's consumption. The more we consume now, the less we invest in the future. Do you disagree that BI will increase consumption? The point of BI is to redistribute consumption to the lower end of the economic distribution, at the expense of the higher end, not to increase overall consumption, though that might happen as a side effect. The net increase in consumption minu…

I believe the gp is saying that BI won't cause a redistribution of consumption from the high-end to the low-end, but instead of redistribution of investment on the high-end (since consumption doesn't scale linearly with income - probably something logrithmic looking), and this loss of investment will have a much greater negative effect on productivity than any minor increase due to consumption on the low end.

Yes, I think at this point it's really just a difference of opinion as to what the effects of BI would be. My view is that the marginal utility of those dollars spent by the high end on investments is lower than the marginal utility of increased consumption at the low end, especially as the actual amounts involved are not that big. I guess the best way to resolve the issue would be experimental validation! ;-)

Re: Outsourced Jobs Are No Longer Cheap, So They're Being Automated

#102

Post by sheepmullet »

yummyfajitas wrote: post #80
sheepmullet wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"If BI increases demand for consumption (as most of it's proponents claim it will), then the price of consumption will increase - hence, inflation." Increased consumption does not necessarily lead to a long term price increase. Often it results in lower prices due to ability to invest in projects with larger upfront/fixed costs. The only goods that would necessarily increase in price are ones where the supply is curr…

This makes no sense. If we shift resources from investment to consumption, we will have fewer projects that increase production in the long term.

You are assuming too much.

1) Many people are currently in jobs producing very low multiples of their cost when they have the ability to produce much higher multiples.

E.g. If JK Rowling spent 10 years writing Harry Potter and spent the next 50 years in total consumption mode she would have still produced far more value than if she had worked in a basic office job for 60 years. How many Rowlings are stuck in low value producing roles?

2) Medium-Large companies are incredibly risk averse to the detriment of the overall market. As such the money they tie up gets very low returns. Forcing a shift in this money into either individuals or into automation attempts would provide far greater returns at an increased risk to a few companies but not an increased systematic risk for the economy.

Re: Outsourced Jobs Are No Longer Cheap, So They're Being Automated

#103

Post by zo1 »

beedogs wrote: post #12

"What does it mean for the economies of these up-and-coming world powers? Well, probably the same thing that it means for everyone else: The automators will continue to get very, very rich, while the automated will have to find something else to do." Or, you know, basic income. Why is the answer to "there are no jobs anymore" always "well, I guess you can starve, then"?

Not everyone says that as the answer. Way to straw-man and present a false dichotomy, both in one sentence.

Or, how about if I claim that there is a certain "group" of people that after being presented with any sort of economic problem pipe-up with a "matter-of-factly" and "know-it-all" attitude that we should: "you know, basic income".

Things are a little more complicated than that, beedogs.

Re: Outsourced Jobs Are No Longer Cheap, So They're Being Automated

#104

Post by zo1 »

lmm wrote: post #63
anigbrowl wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very possibly, but proponents of a basic income consistently fail to articulate three things: how these monies will be collected, what rationale there is for distributing it (other than the implicit acknowledgement that the alternative is civil unrest) and why it won't be inflationary.

> how these monies will be collected No different from current welfare programs. > what rationale there is for distributing it Because it's right. Because the marginal utility of money is much higher for the poor, and because inequality is inherently harmful over and above the effects that low absolute wealth has on the poor. > why it won't be inflationary Even if it is inflationary, basic income can't fail to reduce…

"Because it's right."

Apparently, the majority have not yet agreed with you on that one. You're welcome to make the world "right" with your own money, though.

Re: Outsourced Jobs Are No Longer Cheap, So They're Being Automated

#105

Post by anigbrowl »

123testaccount wrote: post #100
anigbrowl wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's why I would like a basic income, but it won't wash with most people. Perhaps I should have said 'individual rationale'. Look at it from a conservative point of view (becuase that's where the opposition will come from): why should my hard-earned taxes be used to give people money for doing nothing, just so that they can 'have fun with their lives'? This isn't my personal outlook, but I'm playing devil's advocat…

You parent's argument is poorly stated if the desire is to appeal to conservatives. Indeed, many people will object for the reason you stated. There are a few premises that must be established to make a case for BI. 1. We are approaching a post-scarcity economy. 2. In a post-scarcity economy, many people will lose the ability to support themselves\their families, as whole industries are automated. 3. In the case of m…

I strongly agree with this. I'm being contrarian with my questions above (and may do so again in the future) becuase it seems to me that the big obstacles to a basic income are cultural and political, and I'm trying to figure out good solutions to that problem.

As a parallel, consider immigration. From an economic point of view, open borders make a lot of sense because the supply of labor can easily adjust to the demand, so I've wondered for a long time why there shouldn't be free movement of labor as well as capital. Indeed, many people agree with this; I can't imagine you'd find anyone in the US that wanted to adopt China's houkou system, and require people from one state to get a work permit before moving to or taking a job in another state. Given the demographic situation in the US with waves of baby boomers retiring but also living longer the resultant worsening retiree:worker ratio, immigration also makes a great deal of sense as a way to keep a lid on payroll taxes and so forth, and this is coincidentally the last opportunity the US is likely to have to exploit a nearby foreign labor surplus just when it needs one (due to falling overseas birthrates and wage equalization eroding the US demand-side advantages).

Pretty much every economist agrees that more immigration with fewer restrictions would be a good thing for the US. But obviously a sizable contingent of the population just cannot stand that idea and any time such proposals are made in DC the objectors melt the congressional switchboard as quickly as possible to express their displeasure.

So I've given up hope that proposals for a basic income would succeed on the grounds of rationality alone.

Re: Outsourced Jobs Are No Longer Cheap, So They're Being Automated

#106

Post by eli_gottlieb »

123testaccount wrote: post #100
anigbrowl wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's why I would like a basic income, but it won't wash with most people. Perhaps I should have said 'individual rationale'. Look at it from a conservative point of view (becuase that's where the opposition will come from): why should my hard-earned taxes be used to give people money for doing nothing, just so that they can 'have fun with their lives'? This isn't my personal outlook, but I'm playing devil's advocat…

You parent's argument is poorly stated if the desire is to appeal to conservatives. Indeed, many people will object for the reason you stated. There are a few premises that must be established to make a case for BI. 1. We are approaching a post-scarcity economy. 2. In a post-scarcity economy, many people will lose the ability to support themselves\their families, as whole industries are automated. 3. In the case of m…

>You parent's argument is poorly stated if the desire is to appeal to conservatives.

No, it was designed to appeal to people with a sense of right and wrong.

Re: Outsourced Jobs Are No Longer Cheap, So They're Being Automated

#107

Post by 123testaccount »

anigbrowl wrote: post #105
123testaccount wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You parent's argument is poorly stated if the desire is to appeal to conservatives. Indeed, many people will object for the reason you stated. There are a few premises that must be established to make a case for BI. 1. We are approaching a post-scarcity economy. 2. In a post-scarcity economy, many people will lose the ability to support themselves\their families, as whole industries are automated. 3. In the case of m…

I strongly agree with this. I'm being contrarian with my questions above (and may do so again in the future) becuase it seems to me that the big obstacles to a basic income are cultural and political, and I'm trying to figure out good solutions to that problem. As a parallel, consider immigration. From an economic point of view, open borders make a lot of sense because the supply of labor can easily adjust to the dem…

I agree with you on the immigration front as well. And I agree that it is probably true that immigration reform/BI will not succeed on rational grounds. It seems to me that marketing/emotional appeals have the most effect on political/social systems.

When I discuss these topics, I always attempt to make a valid argument (the conclusion follows from the premises), and try to change the discussion to the truth of the premises. Everyone wants to debate the conclusion without looking at the actual premises/validity of the argument.

I appreciate a devil's advocate because it forces me to clarify my own thinking, which hopefully helps me clarify it to others.

Incidentally, I'm not sure we are really heading for a post-scarcity economy. That seems the weakest part of the argument to me. Or at least the toughest part to demonstrate conclusively. So, i think there are rational reasons to be against BI as well.

Re: Outsourced Jobs Are No Longer Cheap, So They're Being Automated

#108

Post by zenogais »

Padding wrote: post #41
zenogais wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Another part of me thinks that automation has been part of our society for a long time, and that taking it further only changes the kind of jobs everyone has, maybe even promoting equality by eliminating the more menial tasks (and therefore making every worker's skill and experience important, instead of them being just a replaceable cog). This is the theory, but the realities of this promoting equality are really…

> In reality automation seems to be a source of widespread immiseration beneficial to only a few. Are you serious? The printing press alone has benefitted humanity as a whole immensly over the last centuries. And there were piles and piles more of automation necessary for us to be able have this discussion right now - on a global scale and at virtually no cost to either of us.

You seem to be discussing net human effects and cherry picking a particularly positive example. I'm discussing the immediate effects of automation on the lives of the workers formerly employed in the automated jobs.

Re: Outsourced Jobs Are No Longer Cheap, So They're Being Automated

#109

Post by tharga8616 »

anigbrowl wrote: post #30
beedogs wrote: post #12

"What does it mean for the economies of these up-and-coming world powers? Well, probably the same thing that it means for everyone else: The automators will continue to get very, very rich, while the automated will have to find something else to do." Or, you know, basic income. Why is the answer to "there are no jobs anymore" always "well, I guess you can starve, then"?

Very possibly, but proponents of a basic income consistently fail to articulate three things: how these monies will be collected, what rationale there is for distributing it (other than the implicit acknowledgement that the alternative is civil unrest) and why it won't be inflationary.

In Spain there is already a model with real data. There is no problem to finance, the main difficulty is politic will, not money. Since you are not injecting money to the system there is no inflation. UBI is a tool for a redistribution of wealth.

Here is the model in spanish: www.nodo50.org/redrentabasica/descargas/RBnoinerte.pdf

Re: Outsourced Jobs Are No Longer Cheap, So They're Being Automated

#110

Post by [deleted] »

anigbrowl wrote: post #30
beedogs wrote: post #12

"What does it mean for the economies of these up-and-coming world powers? Well, probably the same thing that it means for everyone else: The automators will continue to get very, very rich, while the automated will have to find something else to do." Or, you know, basic income. Why is the answer to "there are no jobs anymore" always "well, I guess you can starve, then"?

Very possibly, but proponents of a basic income consistently fail to articulate three things: how these monies will be collected, what rationale there is for distributing it (other than the implicit acknowledgement that the alternative is civil unrest) and why it won't be inflationary.

[deleted]
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