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Y Combinator And Mithril Invest In Helion, A Nuclear Fusion Startup

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Re: Y Combinator And Mithril Invest In Helion, A Nuclear Fusion Startup

#101

Post by cpihl »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #39
rdl wrote: post #23

It's interesting that you can justify this investment in at least four separate ways, independently: 1) Even if there is a low chance of success, it would be wildly profitable if successful, and investing early gets you a good share if it's successful. 2) Fusion power would make the world a better place; investing in this way, when you already have huge returns and it's someone else's money, is actually rational even…

The risk of #3 is that they don't create fusion but they do develop a machine that can emit streams of hot plasma which is then turned into the Navy's weapon of choice for close weapons support on carrier battle groups. That said, I am looking forward to at least one of the fusion efforts bearing fruit. I'm something of an optimist here but I expect a durable solution to the 'energy problem' to emerge from our develo…

We'd certainly be concerned about those kinds of applications. Fortunately we don't use beams in this approach. The plasma used in the Fusion Engine is akin to a balloon or pillow, granted - a really hot pillow, but luckily a terrible projectile.

Re: Y Combinator And Mithril Invest In Helion, A Nuclear Fusion Startup

#102

Post by swalsh »

mikeyouse wrote: post #93
baq wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

or dead; possibly both (i dearly hope not for both cases!). a working fusion reactor with advertised properties will disrupt the current political balance of power on the planet. intelligence agencies of certain fossil fuel-driven countries might get orders to not let the situation go that far. hopefully certain other intelligence agencies will be able to protect the effort.

This is needlessly conspiratorial. Oil companies and sovereign wealth funds are some of the biggest investors in renewables on earth. Everyone knows we will reach peak oil at some point, whether through increasingly costly extraction/taxation or increasingly cheap renewable competitors. There is no 'grand conspiracy' to quash alternative energy sources.

He takes it a bit far... but its true that fuel is a primary driver of politics in our current times. What that means though is a bit less known. Honestly i'd assume it would be a stabilizer more than anything. It could lead to the end of propping up regimes in the middle east for instance.

Re: Y Combinator And Mithril Invest In Helion, A Nuclear Fusion Startup

#103

Post by aetherson »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #39
rdl wrote: post #23

It's interesting that you can justify this investment in at least four separate ways, independently: 1) Even if there is a low chance of success, it would be wildly profitable if successful, and investing early gets you a good share if it's successful. 2) Fusion power would make the world a better place; investing in this way, when you already have huge returns and it's someone else's money, is actually rational even…

The risk of #3 is that they don't create fusion but they do develop a machine that can emit streams of hot plasma which is then turned into the Navy's weapon of choice for close weapons support on carrier battle groups. That said, I am looking forward to at least one of the fusion efforts bearing fruit. I'm something of an optimist here but I expect a durable solution to the 'energy problem' to emerge from our develo…

Regardless of everyone's feelings on whether weapons research is or isn't a good idea, this strikes me as a grossly unlikely application.

The problem with direct-fire weapons is not something like "bullets don't do enough damage." It's aiming and range and so forth. A plasma weapon seems unlikely to have good range or good aiming, and if it does not come with a fusion reactor alongside it, it's also kind of hard to see how you'd power the damn thing.

I'm sure someone can imagine some upside to such a weapon, but in practice, the odds that that particular result would come instead of a million other variations that would be inferior to just shooting bullets at things seems deeply unlikely.

And as everyone has already said, we already have fusion bombs. And for that matter small tactical nuclear weapons for more battlefieldy uses.

Re: Y Combinator And Mithril Invest In Helion, A Nuclear Fusion Startup

#104

Post by [deleted] »

Arnor wrote: post #82
sillysaurus3 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The risk of #3 is that they don't create fusion but they do develop a machine that can emit streams of hot plasma which is then turned into the Navy's weapon of choice for close weapons support on carrier battle groups. Why is that a risk? I'd like to live in a country with that technology, because otherwise other countries will have it and we won't.

It's a risk to the investment firms because it would deplete an upside they get from this investment: the halo effect.

[deleted]

Re: Y Combinator And Mithril Invest In Helion, A Nuclear Fusion Startup

#105

Post by jerf »

soperj wrote: post #78
malandrew wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand why this was downvoted. I'm not going to discount the possibility to invent something worse then our most powerful fusion bomb, but if we talk probability here, developing processes that allow greater control is likely to result in a worst case scenario where we have a weapon that is at most as powerful as what we already have, but more focused. IMHO focused fusion destruction is likely to be far m…

I'll never understand being able to kill someone in a humane way(through acts of war). You're killing someone.

I won't deny it's complicated, but there's more to thinking about how we conduct war than just the proximal individual act of killing. Two cultures that, for instance, respect military vs. civilian distinctions may war with each other with much less total damage than two cultures that practice Total War, even if the political outcome is the same in the end.

Just because war is bad does not mean we are forced to throw up our hands and stop making distinctions between degrees of badness. War is not simply infinitely bad... that's ultimately a very sophomoric view.

Re: Y Combinator And Mithril Invest In Helion, A Nuclear Fusion Startup

#106

Post by FiatLuxDave »

swalsh wrote: post #95
TillE wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We've already weaponized nuclear fusion into the most destructive bomb ever created. It probably couldn't get a whole lot worse than that. I think there are other paths to sustainable energy, but certainly viable fusion power is the holy grail.

Nuclear bombs aren't that dangerous though... in the grand scheme of things. That's because their use could trigger a chain reaction which creates a virtual apocalypse scenario. Basically ensuring their use impossible. What's scary is a weapon that can cause massive damage, that we are actually willing to use.

In the grand scheme of things, the situation that held during the Cold War was a historical accident. Not every nuclear bomb in the future will necessarily be possessed by nations who are facing adversaries who can respond in kind to the use of nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons are very scary indeed, and we are very lucky to have made it decades since they have last been used in war. I have good faith that we will make it to a century, but I would not make a bet that they will never, ever be used in anger ever again.

Re: Y Combinator And Mithril Invest In Helion, A Nuclear Fusion Startup

#107

Post by abstractbill »

jes5199 wrote: post #51
abstractbill wrote: post #46

YC used to get a lot of criticism for only funding "trivial web companies". You don't hear that so much these days.

I'm not up to date on everything YC funds - what other non-web companies have they funded?

Cruise Automation, for example, is working on self-driving cars.

There are some biotech companies too, but I don't know much about those.

Re: Y Combinator And Mithril Invest In Helion, A Nuclear Fusion Startup

#108

Post by outericky »

jes5199 wrote: post #51
abstractbill wrote: post #46

YC used to get a lot of criticism for only funding "trivial web companies". You don't hear that so much these days.

I'm not up to date on everything YC funds - what other non-web companies have they funded?

There a number of hardware companies as well.

Re: Y Combinator And Mithril Invest In Helion, A Nuclear Fusion Startup

#109

Post by sillysaurus3 »

aetherson wrote: post #103
ChuckMcM wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The risk of #3 is that they don't create fusion but they do develop a machine that can emit streams of hot plasma which is then turned into the Navy's weapon of choice for close weapons support on carrier battle groups. That said, I am looking forward to at least one of the fusion efforts bearing fruit. I'm something of an optimist here but I expect a durable solution to the 'energy problem' to emerge from our develo…

Regardless of everyone's feelings on whether weapons research is or isn't a good idea, this strikes me as a grossly unlikely application. The problem with direct-fire weapons is not something like "bullets don't do enough damage." It's aiming and range and so forth. A plasma weapon seems unlikely to have good range or good aiming, and if it does not come with a fusion reactor alongside it, it's also kind of hard to s…

Rather than a literal plasma gun, I think they were just saying the risk is that the team will pivot into weapons research. But no one has thus far explained why weapons research would be anything but a positive thing.

Yes, using weapons is unfortunate. The decision to ever use a weapon should be made with the utmost discretion. But when it comes time to use a weapon, it seems hard to argue against having the most effective weapons that also have little collateral damage.

Maybe people are worried that a new, extremely effective weapon will be discovered which happens to have high collateral damage. That's a concern, but it's never been possible to delay the advancement of technology. If something is possible to discover, then it seems like some diligent researcher will eventually discover it. But the concern itself seems misplaced: most new weapons have less collateral damage, not more.

Re: Y Combinator And Mithril Invest In Helion, A Nuclear Fusion Startup

#110

Post by rdl »

cpihl wrote: post #101
ChuckMcM wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The risk of #3 is that they don't create fusion but they do develop a machine that can emit streams of hot plasma which is then turned into the Navy's weapon of choice for close weapons support on carrier battle groups. That said, I am looking forward to at least one of the fusion efforts bearing fruit. I'm something of an optimist here but I expect a durable solution to the 'energy problem' to emerge from our develo…

We'd certainly be concerned about those kinds of applications. Fortunately we don't use beams in this approach. The plasma used in the Fusion Engine is akin to a balloon or pillow, granted - a really hot pillow, but luckily a terrible projectile.

Do you have an opinion about Bussard/Polywell?
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