Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

teslacost.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

101–110 of 169 posts

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#101

Post by bsdetector »

bsilvereagle wrote: post #41
natural219 wrote: post #19

I have also ran similar calculations in my head. I think what I'd want to be convinced is a thorough analysis from a mechanical/industrial engineer on how much you can expect to save from a fully electric car on maintenance. The claim I've heard from Tesla is that, since there are much fewer moving parts within an electric motor, the car will last substantially longer. While this makes intuitive sense, I would love t…

> fewer moving parts I think auto makers use this to distract potential buyers from what's really going to be replaced: the battery. Just like laptop batteries, the charge life of the car battery is going to decrease with time. Tesla did have this on their website, but the link this is quoted from is broken: "A Battery Replacement Option will be available for purchase soon. The option allows you to pre-purchase a new…

The $12k battery placement cost is not included in the spreadsheet, not to mention that this is the cost if purchased 8 years ahead of time and purchasing it later will probably be more expensive.

He's already bought the car and so he should know how his insurance cost has changed, but doesn't mention how much it changed.

The model also does not include property tax. I'm assuming California has a car property tax of some kind.

...so basically this is justifying his purchase to himself, little more than that.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#102

Post by vacri »

D_Alex wrote: post #99
vacri wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Canada is a "Big Country" nation, and Norway isn't. Short or shortening range will have less of an effect on purchaser decisions.

1. Norway, like Canada, is sparsely populated country. 2. I saw a Norwegian registered Model S in Zurich last week.

The distance between Oslo and Bergen is smaller than the distance between Toronto and Montreal - which are fairly close to each other in Canadian terms. Look at your population density maps of the two - Norway has most of its people clustered around Oslo, whereas Canada has a wide spray across the southeast. The distance from Hamilton to Halifax is basically equal to the length of Norway, and it's only a quarter of the way across the country.

In any case, if you speak to travelled "Big Country" drivers, you'll find a vein of amused stories at what plenty of Europeans consider to be 'long drives'. And did your Norwegian cover that distance in a day or two? Because it's a meaningless statement without knowing how long it took to get there - it could even have been shipped up there (in theory, of course).

I have a driving endurance of about eight hours and I consider myself a 'middle-distance' driver here in Australia. Plenty of folks here can drive 12-16 hours, though more are like me. The 16-hour people aren't all that common, but neither is it particularly remarkable.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#103

Post by rdl »

pravda wrote: post #68
jamesaguilar wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'd say you are off by an order of magnitude. On what basis? I know he didn't cite, and I'm not trying to put the burden of proof on you, but I'm curious why you think this. As in, I'd like to see some data (from either side). I did some brief searching and he is correct that [45]00 HP brushless motors seem to go in the low five figures (at least on Ebay, which I know is not representative of Tesla's costs). I'm ha…

On the basis that it is the size of a (very large) watermelon. What's it made of? Copper and steel and aluminum. $1000 of materials and $1000 in labor. Here's a pic: http://insideevs.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Screen-Shot-... Then of course there is the cost of the cooling jacket and the electronics. I can't estimate that readily.

Given how vertically integrated Tesla is, this is the right approach. Include a factor for time on capital equipment (number which can be produced per year per machine, cost of machine, cheap cost of capital, wear on machines, depreciation over lifetime) and you'd probably be good (maybe $3k total for the part?)

If it's a commodity item (like most electric motors, but maybe not the one in the Tesla), with a competitive market, you might be able to estimate cost by looking at open market pricing, but for something like SpaceX, that clearly doesn't work.

Tesla is closer to SpaceX in thinking than it is to most car companies, especially startup car companies.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#104

Post by ericd »

jamesaguilar wrote: post #83
pravda wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>TL;DR: What is a sub-one ounce object made mostly of silicon that costs more than a thousand dollars. (intel i7) In that case, you are paying for the IP, not the silicon. The Tesla motor is a simple design, no magnets, no brushes. I assume they are hand-built. Some, but not too much precision machining required. Think about how much precision goes into a 2TB hard drive that costs $100 retail.

I often come to the wrong conclusion when "just thinking" about it, especially in domains where I am not even a novice. Also, the fact that I don't find listings for 500hp brushless motors for I can see where you get your belief -- I wasn't questioning that it is a reasonable one to hold. But I am asking for evidence that compels me to a confidence level I'd actually bet on. Data will be required. Thought experiments…

You're making an assertion that runs counter to the common wisdom that electric cars will require less maintenance, so the burden of proof is on you.

The fact that you can't find brushless motors online that retail for less than $10k is not convincing, because it's a new use case, a unique design, and they're not selling them outside of cars. You don't know what the pricing is. As far as materials, that amount of copper isn't going to help it get to $10k.

EDIT: Oh sorry, I mistook you for the originator of this thread, jesusmichael. He asserted that, not you.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#105

Post by D_Alex »

sergiosgc wrote: post #100
jesusmichael wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The statement that electric motors have fewer moving parts so they last substantially longer is a fallacy that electric car proponents have been spreading for years. There are still many, moving parts which require servicing and can fail at a rate of similarly serviced gas engines. In fact servicing (rewinding) is quite a labor intensive and expensive operation, given the price of copper or other conductive material…

Here's a perfectly written comment, downvoted. I don't agree with the conclusion, I question several of the premises, but I can't understand downvoting based on agreement. The comment is good, well written, and adds to the discussion. It should be upvoted. Are there voting guidelines for HN? Am I in the wrong here?

That comment has so much bullshit in it - here is a sampling:

>The statement that electric motors have fewer moving parts so they last substantially longer is a fallacy

No, it is true on all counts. I'd explain in detail, but this is so weird I dont really know where to start.

>90% of a vehicle's maintenance has nothing to do with its motor

Rubbish. In a gasoline (or diesel) powered car, the majority of maintenance is to do with the engine and its auxiliary systems such as fuel delivery, ignition, cooling, starting etc.

>electric motors need oil changes too

This is the best one of the lot. Not sure if a moron or a troll.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#106

Post by morganvachon »

bsdetector wrote: post #101
bsilvereagle wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> fewer moving parts I think auto makers use this to distract potential buyers from what's really going to be replaced: the battery. Just like laptop batteries, the charge life of the car battery is going to decrease with time. Tesla did have this on their website, but the link this is quoted from is broken: "A Battery Replacement Option will be available for purchase soon. The option allows you to pre-purchase a new…

The $12k battery placement cost is not included in the spreadsheet, not to mention that this is the cost if purchased 8 years ahead of time and purchasing it later will probably be more expensive. He's already bought the car and so he should know how his insurance cost has changed, but doesn't mention how much it changed. The model also does not include property tax. I'm assuming California has a car property tax of…

>...so basically this is justifying his purchase to himself, little more than that.

I don't see where he said otherwise.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#108

Post by D_Alex »

The model seems flawed. The financing/opportunity costs are not included (AFAICT...). A better way to construct the model would be to avoid trying to account for year-by-year depreciation, and only include the initial purchase cost and eventual sale cost in the cash flow.

Unfortunately (you might be able to tell I'm a Tesla fan), this makes the Tesla S less attractive in comparison to other cars due to its higher up-front price.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#109

Post by lttlrck »

pravda wrote: post #73
jamesaguilar wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This manner of cost estimation is not convincing to me, for reasons that should be obvious to anyone. There are plenty of small things that cost a lot of money, because, perhaps, of the precision or techniques required to manufacture them or their components, or the dearness of the materials that compose the minority of the object. TL;DR: What is a sub-one ounce object made mostly of silicon that costs more than a th…

>TL;DR: What is a sub-one ounce object made mostly of silicon that costs more than a thousand dollars. (intel i7) In that case, you are paying for the IP, not the silicon. The Tesla motor is a simple design, no magnets, no brushes. I assume they are hand-built. Some, but not too much precision machining required. Think about how much precision goes into a 2TB hard drive that costs $100 retail.

What about volumes of scale?
Post reply on HN