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Missing hard drive containing Bitcoins worth £4m in Newport landfill site

theguardian.com

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Re: Missing hard drive containing Bitcoins worth £4m in Newport landfill site

#101
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ask the Zimbabweans about the insignificance of 14 zeros in your currency. History is littered with far more examples of currency revaluation than long-term stable measures of wealth (in fact precious metals are, possibly, the only example).

Zimbabwe had hyper-inflation, which made currency worthless as soon as it was printed. Bitcoins have the opposite "problem".

So in Zimbabwe, receiving $1,000,000 in the morning was a losing proposition because by nightfall you might sell the same good for $1,000,000,000.

With hyper-deflation, spending $1,000,000 in the morning would be a losing proposition because by nightfall you might buy the same good for $1,000.

Both suffer severe problems, economically, but who loses and who wins changes. The matrix is something like this:

    Inflation| Buyer | Seller |
    ---------+-------+--------+
       Early | Win   |  Lose  |
    ---------+-------+--------+
       Later | Lose  |  Win   |
    ---------+-------+--------+

    Deflation| Buyer | Seller |
    ---------+-------+--------+
       Early | Lose  |  Win   |
    ---------+-------+--------+
       Later | Win   |  Lose  |
    ---------+-------+--------+
Ultimately, neither one is good. In the case of moderate deflation and inflation it's similar. There is less motivation to invest, greater motivation to save under moderate deflation. Moderate inflation increases the motivation to invest, but decreases the motivation to save.

Re: Missing hard drive containing Bitcoins worth £4m in Newport landfill site

#102
post #93

So, this raises an interesting question for me. Since the total supply of Bitcoins is limited by design, doesn't every forgotten or lost Bitcoin reduce the total supply? In other words, suppose, hypothetically, that after all Bitcoins have been mined, I bought them all, stored them on a hard drive (with no backup, obviously), and then destroyed that hard drive (let's say I threw it into a black hole). Does Bitcoin st…

Yes. The lost currency is essentially removed from the pool. The result is deflation--because there is less supply, the currency is worth more. Goods cost the same, so the bitcoin value for a certain product/service drops. At least this is what economics would seem to dictate. You can send tiny partitions of bitcoin, so it's really easy to send a millionth of a bitcoin, where if $40t disappeared from the USD, you can…

What if the situation continues and large percentages of the bitcoin pool are of unknown status (could be lost, could be in the possession of a government institution, could be being hoarded). Would this make bitcoin more risky compared to a hypothetical competing crypto currency that can account for the status of all of it's coins? Could this make bitcoin untenable?

Re: Missing hard drive containing Bitcoins worth £4m in Newport landfill site

#103

Well if Bitcoin really takes off, then someday it might be wise to go buy the landfill and go search for the "Treasure of Newport". I could imagine the headline: "Retired computer tech regrets telling everyone of the Bitcoin treasure trove". Talk about bad financial decisions.

How long can a computer hard drive remain in working condition while buried in a landfill?

Re: Missing hard drive containing Bitcoins worth £4m in Newport landfill site

#104
post #66

There are some people who believe a realistic value for bitcoin in the success scenario could be circa 1 million dollars (if it were to partially supplant gold or USD). As a thought experiment, if I google for landfill prices, I see prices like 40 million dollars for a landfill. So if you can mine one hard drive in that scenario, landfills should be massively more valuable.

Also - and much more profitable - you can just buy as many bitcoins as you can afford right now and sell them when they reach a value of 10^6 USD.

Re: Missing hard drive containing Bitcoins worth £4m in Newport landfill site

#105

I have misplaced Bitcoins currently worth in excess of $700,000 / £430,000. They were purchased a couple of years back. I've not even started the search for them properly as I know how gutted I will feel if I definitely can't find them. At the end of the day, it's only money and there's always time to make more. Time is the one thing of which we have a finite amount!

Err, with more money you'll have to spend less time on making money you know :-)

Re: Missing hard drive containing Bitcoins worth £4m in Newport landfill site

#106
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. The lost currency is essentially removed from the pool. The result is deflation--because there is less supply, the currency is worth more. Goods cost the same, so the bitcoin value for a certain product/service drops. At least this is what economics would seem to dictate. You can send tiny partitions of bitcoin, so it's really easy to send a millionth of a bitcoin, where if $40t disappeared from the USD, you can…

So what about my second question? If I bought all the Bitcoins and deleted them, does that destroy the currency entirely?

In practice, no because

1) New Bitcoins are created every 10 minutes until we reach ~21M bitcoins.

2) Some people will refuse to sell their Bitcoin to you.

In theory, if you can wait until year ~2140, send all the Bitcoins in the world to your address and delete the private key from your hard drive (and brain), then yes. But then, maybe someone could get really lucky and guess your private key. But both those scenarios are uninteresting because they are impossible in practice (they are about as likely as the Flying Spaghetti Monster being real).

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/FAQ#What_if_someone_bought_up_all...

Re: Missing hard drive containing Bitcoins worth £4m in Newport landfill site

#108
post #66

There are some people who believe a realistic value for bitcoin in the success scenario could be circa 1 million dollars (if it were to partially supplant gold or USD). As a thought experiment, if I google for landfill prices, I see prices like 40 million dollars for a landfill. So if you can mine one hard drive in that scenario, landfills should be massively more valuable.

Also - and much more profitable - you can just buy as many bitcoins as you can afford right now and sell them when they reach a value of 10^6 USD.

Sure, but my thought experiment was more about 10-20 years from now when that option is off the table.

Re: Missing hard drive containing Bitcoins worth £4m in Newport landfill site

#109
post #11

Forget the bitcoins, why would you throw away a perfectly good, supposedly working, hard drive? That's a shame. And before secure formatting it?

Laptop drives just aren't as useful as desktop drives (most towers can take 3-5 3.5" drives, most laptops can take exactly 1x 2.5"), and this particular platter was probably only 64-256GB?

Data recover guys need old drives. I always wondered why anyone would want my toshiba 5gb drive--some guy on craigslist drove to my house in the middle of the night. A client of his business fried his harddrive, with all the company account on it. He needed my drive for parts.

Re: Missing hard drive containing Bitcoins worth £4m in Newport landfill site

#110

Offer a £1m cash reward to landfill owner

The original owner has less of a legal claim to the harddrive than the landfill owner, so if the landfill owner were to find it why would he return it for 1/4th the value?

If its encrypted like the guy says it is there is little chance of getting the coins anyway.

If he can crack the encryption then why not just crack the largest wallets instead.

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