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Europe's Record Youth Unemployment

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Re: Europe's Record Youth Unemployment

#101

Post by javs42 »

adventured wrote: post #50
javs42 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately there is still debate about the benefit/drawbacks of austerity, but if Europe is any indication, it is just degrading the whole situation. What's keeping Europe away from the edge or from a turn to prosperity is the hard-nosed devotion to austerity.

Ah yes, if the troubled European nations would just spend a lot more money they don't actually have while not paying off any of their debts, while pretending they could ever afford the vast welfare states they built, they would find themselves prosperous again. Keynesian faith based economics at its finest. Spend what you don't have, run up debts you can never pay back, and print your way deeper into destruction when…

You pan Keynesian economics as misguided, and while I'd agree that ramping up public spending is not the solution everytime, clearly austerity is not leading to the "investor confidence" that would spur growth in the periphery. The truth is, no approach is going to work in every situation, but it's almost foolish to say austerity was the best approach to the Eurocrisis.

Of course there are complications when you're dealing with a common currency, but the budget constraints and subsequent skyrocketing of debt hasn't alleviated the situation. If anything its burdened the finances of the periphery with an unbelievable amount of default risk, which if I understand austerity economics correctly, that is exactly what it's meant to avoid via boosting investor confidence. Odd how even though results were different, people still believe it's a good solution to the Eurozone's woes.

Re: Europe's Record Youth Unemployment

#102

Post by kposehn »

piokoch wrote: post #77
kposehn wrote: post #32

Youths with nothing to lose are how bloody revolutions start, rarely turning out well for any involved. I find one thing about the unemployment rate in Europe truly scary: There are a /lot/ of youths there with nothing to lose.

Nope. Revolution needs some "force in the middle" - the poor, lazy an uninterested will not start revolution. French revolution was not started by poor people, but by "middle class" who was not able to extend its wealth and influence because of ruling oligarchy (all these barons, etc). The poor were used by them, but were not the driving force. I am not sure that among young, comfortable, teached from kindergarden ab…

The youth's don't necessarily start it - but they are primed to carry it on. What happens is a groups with something to lose (the french middle class) takes advantage of another group that has nothing to lose (the poor). You can't start a fire with only a spark; you have to have a fuel source.

Re: Europe's Record Youth Unemployment

#103

Post by sebkomianos »

flexie wrote: post #38
sebkomianos wrote: post #26

Another quite scary graph: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/im... I hope it's getting clear to everyone that this is not a "union" anymore..

And then this is not a union either: http://www.ncsl.org/issues-research/labor/state-unemployment... The difference between unemployment in North Dakota and Puerto Rico is 4 fold, not that different from Austria vs. Greece. Also, the figures for Greece are the February figures. The largest industry in Greece, tourism, takes off right about now, and last year on the beach in Greece there were plenty of young Greeks wo…

I don't know as much about how the USA works as a union but, no, it sure doesn't look like a union either. :) But they are not threatening to kick California out of the US if it doesn't pay its debts, right?

As for tourism, yes, it's going to be slightly reduced in July, but do you think it's nice to wait for 3-4 months to work?

Also, they are going to vote for an austerity measure to give seasonal workers an unemployment aid not every year but every two years. At the same time a former minister of defence, who is jailed for corruption scandals, is receiving two pensions every month.

Re: Europe's Record Youth Unemployment

#104

Post by kalleboo »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #100
kalleboo wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iceland had their own currency though, and from the looks of a graph I googled up they inflated the ISK 100% since before the crisis. Ireland and Spain don't have that option.

They do have the option; walk away from the Euro.

Technically? Yes, that's probably their best option. Politically? Very, very difficult.

Re: Europe's Record Youth Unemployment

#105

Post by JamisonM »

sliverstorm wrote: post #55
JamisonM wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, they can keep writing cheques and cashing them, they have their own currency, it allows you to do that. The current problem is that the "core" of the EU thinks it is in their best interest to keep inflation down and let the other nations suffer. The best evidence we have so far indicates that this is a very bad idea.

The best evidence we have so far indicates that this is a very bad idea. Do we have evidence that indicates the alternative is any better? There's nothing that says both options can't be terrible.

Sure, post-WW1 France vs. Britain are a fairly good natural experiment that was conducted - France devalued and Britain did not, and despite the natural advantage of not being destroyed in the war France's economy generally outperformed Britain's anyway. In the current situation one can look at the US vs. Europe though that is more of a less-austerity vs. more-austerity example and of the course, as with all natural experiments the two subjects are not entirely the same.

That, and the economic models that are consistent with recent behaviour in these economies are saying that the alternative is better. Also, we know the trade-off here - austerity is bad for wage-earners, the poor, people with few, no, or negative assets in the denominated currency. Inflation is bad for net asset-holders in the denominated currency and importers.

Now, given that most of the vulnerable people in a society fall into one group that can be a moral basis for action and it is easy to see which side of the political spectrum is more likely to align on each particular side of the debate.

(I post this feeling assured you probably won't read the response since a whole day has passed, but what the heck!)

Re: Europe's Record Youth Unemployment

#106

Post by [deleted] »

alipang wrote: post #93
snowwrestler wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The U.S. has not followed a program of austerity, and our economy and hiring is recovering faster than Europe's.

Sweden here. Went through heavy austerity in the 90s. Things going comparatively good now, just to give you some anectodal evidence for the contrary position.

[deleted]

Re: Europe's Record Youth Unemployment

#107

Post by JamisonM »

alipang wrote: post #93
snowwrestler wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The U.S. has not followed a program of austerity, and our economy and hiring is recovering faster than Europe's.

Sweden here. Went through heavy austerity in the 90s. Things going comparatively good now, just to give you some anectodal evidence for the contrary position.

Canada too, but it a largely inapplicable data point in both cases. First of all for both countries there is no evidence that our lending rates would have increase without the 90's austerity, so its actual value was dubious in the first place. Secondly, as nations mostly on the edge of the global financial storm we are not very interesting, we do not have a huge overhang of private debt that has drastically collapsed demand and crushed our tax base. (Canada has a large amount of private debt but since house values have held that debt is not an "overhang" it just sitting there, I can't speak for Sweden.) That is what put these countries in the positions they are in.

Re: Europe's Record Youth Unemployment

#108

Post by JamisonM »

rbehrends wrote: post #80
adventured wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah yes, if the troubled European nations would just spend a lot more money they don't actually have while not paying off any of their debts, while pretending they could ever afford the vast welfare states they built, they would find themselves prosperous again. Keynesian faith based economics at its finest. Spend what you don't have, run up debts you can never pay back, and print your way deeper into destruction when…

No offense, but this comment betrays a very limited understanding of the situation. First of all, the European countries with the strongest welfare states do just fine. Also, social expenditures are not actually much different in the United States compared to EU countries -- it's just that more of it comes out of pocket [1]; in the end, it still comes out of your paycheck (as an employee) or profit (if self-employed)…

On top of an upvote I would just like to thank you for taking the time to post something so complete and excellent!
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