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Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

reuters.com

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Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#101

Post by tchalla »

method_capital wrote: post #7
tananaev wrote: post #2

Finally some evidence that the system is working. Most countries are borrowing like there's no tomorrow, so obviously rates should go up to compensate the risk of not paying back.

Working is an interesting term (which I agree with btw) because place like Japan with debt at 200%+ of gdp, rates rising are going to annihilate spending in other important areas. Maybe we should vote for people who are financially literate, can think long term, and can "conserve" rather than politicians who promise endlessly?

Japan’s debt is mostly held local unlike some other countries.

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#102

Post by debo_ »

danans wrote: post #9
pjc50 wrote: post #6

The war(s), especially with the impact on pipelines and the Houthis taking over more of Yemen, are finally affecting fuel prices and hence turning the global economic outlook less positive. You can print money, but you can only ""print"" oil for a short time from reserves, which the US and China have been draining.

> You can print money, but you can only ""print"" oil for a short time from reserves, which the US and China have been draining. What's different between the two is that apparently China hasn't made an equivalent dent in its oil reserves, despite no significant reduction in travel, and despite reducing its import demand by 1 OPEC. It's not entirely clear how - but theories include shifts from flights to train travel…

> massive crack spread

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#103

Post by stymaar »

rdm_blackhole wrote: post #18

France is in a dire situation right now. 10y OAT are at 4.5% and rising with almost 100bps difference with Germany and no budget for 2027 since there is no majority in the parliament. There is also a 6% deficit expected and growth has been revised down to 0.4% although during the first 6 months of 2026 there was actually a decrease of 0.2% of GDP in total so finishing the year in recession is totally possible. Unempl…

And don't expect any debate on economic policy in the next presidential campaign either… It's just going to be “should we tax the billionaires” vs “should we save a few basis points of GDP in pensions”, none of which is remotely close to the order of magnitude that's needed to put the country back on its feet.

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#104

Post by wongarsu »

Synthetic7346 wrote: post #94
podocarp wrote: post #73

Turns out countries with constitutions forbidding excessive debt are quite smart. It's like phone addiction -- if the parents don't lead by example and strictly enforce "no phones at the dinner table" then slowly it's just gonna creep back in and everyone's just staring at their phones again.

Not working so well for Germany https://youtu.be/ajH6YVhdOZU?is=Xht8Qsd_eGqnS7wW

In the short term it will always look stupid. Borrowing allows you to invest, which leads to growth, which allows you to borrow more.

But debt also accumulates, and usually faster than GDP growth. Until debt servicing starts eating your budget. Which is a slowly encroaching killer

I find it difficult to draw conclusions just yet. Yes, Germany is under-investing and that hurts. But with another 20 years of hindsight it might look like the lesser evil

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#105

Post by zeroonetwothree »

smallmancontrov wrote: post #90
method_capital wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Working is an interesting term (which I agree with btw) because place like Japan with debt at 200%+ of gdp, rates rising are going to annihilate spending in other important areas. Maybe we should vote for people who are financially literate, can think long term, and can "conserve" rather than politicians who promise endlessly?

> Maybe we should vote for people who are financially literate, can think long term, and can "conserve" rather than politicians who promise endlessly? Conservatives: +-------------------------+----------------------------------------+ | President Name | Deficit Increase (+) or Decrease (-) | +-------------------------+----------------------------------------+ | Donald Trump (2nd term) | N/A | | Donald Trump (1st term…

Republican != conservative

:)

Also some of the numbers are very sensitive to start/end dates (remind me, did anything happen in 2020?)

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#106

Post by dfgknionio »

smallmancontrov wrote: post #90
method_capital wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Working is an interesting term (which I agree with btw) because place like Japan with debt at 200%+ of gdp, rates rising are going to annihilate spending in other important areas. Maybe we should vote for people who are financially literate, can think long term, and can "conserve" rather than politicians who promise endlessly?

> Maybe we should vote for people who are financially literate, can think long term, and can "conserve" rather than politicians who promise endlessly? Conservatives: +-------------------------+----------------------------------------+ | President Name | Deficit Increase (+) or Decrease (-) | +-------------------------+----------------------------------------+ | Donald Trump (2nd term) | N/A | | Donald Trump (1st term…

This is kind of a fool's errand given that sample sizes are small and there are large exogenous causes. But the pattern is consistent and agrees with theory, so I think the comparison is worth making anyway.

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#107

Post by gradus_ad »

podocarp wrote: post #73

Turns out countries with constitutions forbidding excessive debt are quite smart. It's like phone addiction -- if the parents don't lead by example and strictly enforce "no phones at the dinner table" then slowly it's just gonna creep back in and everyone's just staring at their phones again.

Debt is easy to deal with for a sovereign. Just dilute the currency. That will obviously happen before a debt crisis is allowed to materialize. And so the rich will get richer.

The real problem is not the debt, but the social instability caused by the measures taken to address the debt.

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#108

Post by t_mahmood »

lordnacho wrote: post #8
method_capital wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Working is an interesting term (which I agree with btw) because place like Japan with debt at 200%+ of gdp, rates rising are going to annihilate spending in other important areas. Maybe we should vote for people who are financially literate, can think long term, and can "conserve" rather than politicians who promise endlessly?

> Maybe we should vote for people who are financially literate, can think long term, and can "conserve" rather than politicians who promise endlessly? Who could you vote for, in any democracy, that would fit this? Also, how many voters would have the wherewithal to identify such a person?

I believe voters are unfortunately useless.

In my country people voted in a party as majority that, not once left their terms peacefully in the past. AFTER our genZ ousted the other party, that came to power as a majority 17 years ago, changed constituency and controlled the parliament using majority, and turned into an autocracy

Now this party is shaping everything up using their majority for their favor (no surprise), ignoring all the agreements agreed upon by all the parties before election, under the interim government.

All those blood, deaths, injuries are wasted.

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#109

Post by tokai »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #69
Cruncharoo wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sort of. You also have to consider exchange rate futures, the value of the currency you will be getting paid in may change dramatically.

Is the euro doing or expected to do something strange?

Eurobonds being discussed again maybe?

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#110

Post by zaik »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #69
Cruncharoo wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sort of. You also have to consider exchange rate futures, the value of the currency you will be getting paid in may change dramatically.

Is the euro doing or expected to do something strange?

Hopefully I'm looking at the right thing, but it looks like market expections are that you will get more USD per EUR in the future: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/fx/g10/euro-fx.quotes.html
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