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What will our economic future look like?

anthropic.com

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Re: What will our economic future look like?

#101

Post by somenameforme »

Dlemlo wrote: post #53
Toutouxc wrote: post #28

I like how the least optimistic scenario is simply LLMs not making a difference, instead of the very real possibility of them damaging education, destroying people’s attention spans and their ability to learn, eroding trust within societies, increasing the wealth inequality and leading to class wars. I believe the net effect of LLMs is, at this point, firmly negative, and it’s going to take years until they start mak…

How? Whatever an LLM can do today, will not come back as is tomorrow. The biggest issue the LLM today: It kills all the small and niche things. The things were we fit all the other people is getting destroyed. You know the guy who makes websites, the fiverr blender person provoding some basic modelling tasks. You will just ask AI or AI will use your tool or AI will just produce it for you.

You're describing the end of the digital world as we know it, and I feel fine.

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#102

Post by fg137 »

JacobiX wrote: post #20

> As the nurse incorporates AI into her job, the nurse is able to oversee and accomplish more. She can spend more time talking with patients and helping them understand diagnoses. Productivity increases. This feels economically naïve.. If AI lets one nurse do the work that previously required two, the default pressure in a cost-driven system is not "great, now nurses can spend twice as long with patients" It is "grea…

I didn't read the article but headed straight to comments because I cannot trust a single word Anthropic says about economy.

They have an incentive to play dumb and talk as if AI is net positive for the world.

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#104

Post by trallnag »

nemomarx wrote: post #91
rootusrootus wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The data seems to contradict that, if Freakonomics is to be believed (and some people don't like them, I get that). Apparently overall headcount actually increased as a result of self-checkout. E.g. cashiers did drop a little but loss prevention more than made up for it.

seems like a worse customer experience though. longer lines at checkouts and the self checkout process is unnecessarily slow to deter theft.

Some supermarkets let customers scan their items as they go through the store with a handheld device

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#105

Post by dgellow »

okaleniuk wrote: post #83
Toutouxc wrote: post #28

I like how the least optimistic scenario is simply LLMs not making a difference, instead of the very real possibility of them damaging education, destroying people’s attention spans and their ability to learn, eroding trust within societies, increasing the wealth inequality and leading to class wars. I believe the net effect of LLMs is, at this point, firmly negative, and it’s going to take years until they start mak…

Um. Damaging education, destroying people’s attention spans and their ability to learn, eroding trust within societies, increasing the wealth inequality, - all of that has already been done. Long before LLMs. And the only reason there is no class war is... exactly that. Uneducated people with short attention spans and no means beyond basic level are exemplary bad at modern warfare.

LLMs worsen all those existing problems, that’s the whole point being made here

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#106

Post by simianwords »

ang_cire wrote: post #94
simianwords wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

how come productivity increase actually led to increase in quality in almost all cases? internet/digitasion for doctors for example.

> how come productivity increase actually led to increase in quality in almost all cases? It doesn't, this is just plain false. Most productivity gains happen by cutting value-add complexity or material quality. See IKEA chairs versus Shaker ones, or lycra clothes versus silk. > internet/digitasion for doctors for example. I see the misconception. The internet was not created to serve productivity, it was a communica…

> It doesn't, this is just plain false. Most productivity gains happen by cutting value-add complexity or material quality. See IKEA chairs versus Shaker ones, or lycra clothes versus silk.

this is a popular misconception. IKEA made bad furniture more accessible. good quality furniture still exists and is more affordable (share of disposable income) now than in the past. its the same deal for watches, dryers, computers etc. if you don't trust me, use ChatGPT/Claude to verify this.

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#107

Post by bitmasher9 »

triceratops wrote: post #88
JacobiX wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Air travel is a good counterexample here: technology made airlines far more productive, but much of the gain went into lower staffing, higher throughput, and cost cutting not a better passenger experience

To be fair it is a better passenger experience at that price point .

I once saw a receipt for a cross-country train ride in the late 1950s and was shocked at the price. It was significantly slower and more expensive than a similar plane ticket today.

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#108

Post by ang_cire »

cman1444 wrote: post #79
ang_cire wrote: post #37

> The result: the nurse’s job changes > As the nurse incorporates AI into her job, the nurse is able to oversee and accomplish more. She can spend more time talking with patients and helping them understand diagnoses. Productivity increases. Except what actually happens is that the patient contact time stays the same, but then the added productivity is used to justify fewer on-staff nurses.

Except, so far, this isn't actually what happens. I listened to Moody's "Inside Economics" podcast with Ramp's Chief Economist, and they observe that companies who adopt AI intensively actually hire 10% more people. Also, this article from The Economist suggests that evidence is mixed-to-positive for long term employment, while short term data center buildout is extremely positive for jobs. Paywalled unfortunately. h…

This is like asking your drug dealer if being high will help you forget your problems.

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#109

Post by dgellow »

fg137 wrote: post #102
JacobiX wrote: post #20

> As the nurse incorporates AI into her job, the nurse is able to oversee and accomplish more. She can spend more time talking with patients and helping them understand diagnoses. Productivity increases. This feels economically naïve.. If AI lets one nurse do the work that previously required two, the default pressure in a cost-driven system is not "great, now nurses can spend twice as long with patients" It is "grea…

I didn't read the article but headed straight to comments because I cannot trust a single word Anthropic says about economy. They have an incentive to play dumb and talk as if AI is net positive for the world.

Yep, I read it, that’s what this seems to be about

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#110

Post by JKCalhoun »

barbazoo wrote: post #98
Dlemlo wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How? Whatever an LLM can do today, will not come back as is tomorrow. The biggest issue the LLM today: It kills all the small and niche things. The things were we fit all the other people is getting destroyed. You know the guy who makes websites, the fiverr blender person provoding some basic modelling tasks. You will just ask AI or AI will use your tool or AI will just produce it for you.

I think the root cause is people not having enough human connection. If we had families, friends, neighborhoods, communities where people know each other and care about each other it wouldn't make a difference what new tool someone brings to group. It's just a tool.

I think you nailed it. Before LLMs showed up on the scene, we had already broken society.

(Thanks, Internet!)

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