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2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

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Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#101
post #81
post #60

AI companies would do well to realize that civil disobedience is a thing. Take what's currently happening to Flock cameras as an object lesson. People are so fed up with Flock that they're cutting their cameras down en masse, sometimes wiping them clean from entire jurisdictions. Tens of thousands of other people in those jurisdictions are cheering them on, even offering alibis for them before they've been caught. La…

> Take what's currently happening to Flock cameras as an object lesson. People are so fed up with Flock that they're cutting their cameras down en masse, sometimes wiping them clean from entire jurisdictions. It seems inevitable that these lost cameras will simply be upgraded to drone fleets. Not an identical replacement, but still "good enough" for the original purposes. Had they anticipated this problem and skipped…

> anybody who was okay with the original cameras

Who cares about those people? I would argue even they themselves hardly do. And sure, they'll be even more okay with even worse stuff, and that even worse stuff will be even more hated by even more people, whatever the people who are "okay with" (that can mean ignorance, obedience, or evil intent, but it's not justification). If they can be okay with mass surveillance they can be okay with other things, so they're basically a wash, they're just okay with stuff.

> At least one third of the country is still okay with them

Then they can be okay with the majority saying you know what, we're sick of you, you can either stop having your toys or you will be segregated from us and live under your own surveillance. "Being okay with something" isn't some magical wand or a fortress, it's just a limp shrug. It means "pass".

> In sum, we don't have as much control over these things as you seem to believe.

I don't see the connection with the sentence before that, which is a minority being "okay with" something and a majority willing to fight and out there doing it. It's not about controlling what a minority of people are okay with, it's about changing what is done. The people who are okay with stuff can go read a comic book until it's over, how does that not solve anything you raised about them? Or are you saying their being okay with stuff should be respected or even heeded? Couldn't they just make that claim themselves, if they wanted to?

Imagine a raging house fire, people stumbling over each other trying to help, and some guy steps up and goes "WAIT!" they all look at him, sure he has a major contribution for interrupting something like this, a good idea, a plan perhaps; and he goes "... I'm actually okay with this."

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't matter. The perception is all datacenters do AI (not necessarily wrong nowadays either) and that's all that matters to the public when they see so many lost jobs and high computer / phone prices.

And how does the public know there is a datacenter inside a random building?

Either it's being proposed or other people tell them about them. It's not hard to find out where datacenters are.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#104
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Take what's currently happening to Flock cameras as an object lesson. People are so fed up with Flock that they're cutting their cameras down en masse, sometimes wiping them clean from entire jurisdictions. It seems inevitable that these lost cameras will simply be upgraded to drone fleets. Not an identical replacement, but still "good enough" for the original purposes. Had they anticipated this problem and skipped…

> anybody who was okay with the original cameras Who cares about those people? I would argue even they themselves hardly do. And sure, they'll be even more okay with even worse stuff, and that even worse stuff will be even more hated by even more people, whatever the people who are "okay with" (that can mean ignorance, obedience, or evil intent, but it's not justification). If they can be okay with mass surveillance…

> Then they can be okay with the majority saying you know what, we're sick of you, you can either stop having your toys or you will be segregated from us and live under your own surveillance. "Being okay with something" isn't some magical wand or a fortress, it's just a limp shrug. It means "pass".

It's not the majority, though. Roughly speaking, among adults, we have:

* 1/3 who are willing to vote for the red flavor of lesser-two-evils (some of them don't even register it as evil)

* 1/3 who are willing to vote for the blue flavor of lesser-two-evils (some of them don't even register it as evil, including when it literally manufactures consent for the first third to win next time around)

* 1/3 who see the above as a uniparty of capital interests offering the illusion of democracy through "close" elections as the bullshit that it is.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#105
post #37

This will have general inflationary consequences for consumer products (phones, consoles, laptops, etc.). On top of current uncertainties regarding oil and fertilizers, I think 2% inflation in the US and Europe would be a very optimistic target.

2% was already optimistic once we decided we were buying too much from China.

Literally put a 50% tax on everything and then said it'll only raise prices 2%

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#106
post #7

All those devs who were saying "ram is cheap" BTFO.

OK I’ll take the bait. Were devs supposed to optimize RAM for a shortage that might come? I’m guessing you had enough foresight to stockpile RAM?

What’s implied here is that devs were supposed to optimize for user resources, not for developer convenience.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#107
post #40
post #22

I saw on Twitter that TSMC has made 1B worth of chips for Apple that they cannot package because of missing memory. (PS: It is time to let ASML sell to CXMT.)

> (PS: It is time to let ASML sell to CXMT.) Why? High demand and low supply is very good for shareholders and make indexes go up, their goal is not to meet demand, they want exponential qurartly revunes

You still have to actually meet the demand. It's not good if you don't sell any products.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#108
post #88
post #22

I saw on Twitter that TSMC has made 1B worth of chips for Apple that they cannot package because of missing memory. (PS: It is time to let ASML sell to CXMT.)

I just thought… didn’t Intel start as a memory chip company? Couldn’t intel repurpose some of its fabs (maybe the old ones?) to produce memory? I’m no expert but… seems like an easy win?

You want a bunch of 4 kilobyte DRAM chips with an interface that predates DDR1, for your Commodore 64?

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#109

The boom cycle looks like it's going to last a while, but it never lasts forever. If the current memory manufacturers all conspire to not build more capacity, I'm sure someone else will (eg China).

CXMT is now producing as much as one of the big three. Only for China, of course.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#110
post #87

Honest question: is this the first time this thing happens? Besides the AI craze, to me it sounds kinda reasonable. Most large buyers (apple, public clouds, OEMs) do forecasting and orders in advance, right?

According to semiconductor industry stock market analysts, memory gets really expensive about once a decade on average so far.
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