Earlier quoted context omitted.
> You clearly don't like the idea there are some businesses in the AI mix that will continue making money and/or diversify their divisions to cover for any losses they suffer during this hypothetical crash or I wouldn't be getting downvoted for it. Me? I didn't downvote you for it and you are projecting a lot onto me without a sound basis. Either way, my predictions are all personal, because as someone with his own p…
Look, if you like his vibes, that's totally cool but it's also a bit GPT-4o. He's predicting a vague crash that will happen someday and he's been predicting it for a while now (2024). It didn't happen yet. His value as a prophet of the AI bubble is going down by the day, but if it's the gospel you want and/or need to hear, by all means... But also, if you don't want to talk about this stuff, why comment about it?
Is it? I don't think this is really true.
For example he's spent some time talking about Oracle's relatively more dangerous exposure to OpenAI. Here he is back in April:
https://shows.acast.com/the-tech-report/episodes/how-openai-...
Here's S&P in July, downgrading Oracle specifically because of their exposure to risks from OpenAI.
https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/vie...
> and he's been predicting it for a while now (2024)
Like I said elsewhere, the first accurate, detailed, correct predictions of the subprime crisis were made four years before it finally unfolded. There's likely at least one more round of funding to come for both OpenAI and Anthropic. The big systemic risk to the USA is if the bubble bursts in 2028, if you ask me; that is shaping up to be a restless year.
> but if it's the gospel you want and/or need to hear,
It's not, especially? I listen every now and then; I don't even use a podcast app as a rule, so I'm far from a subscriber or follower. I am more interested in what Cal Newport has to say. I am probably slightly less bearish about AI's long tail value than Zitron is, as it goes.
> But also, if you don't want to talk about this stuff, why comment about it?
I'm happy to talk about it. I just don't care enough to make predictions beyond the personal, because I'm just not that invested and other people are better at it than me.
To the extent that I think personal observations scale up to the rest of the world, I would say that leads me to think that on-device AI will very significantly derail optimistic consumer AI revenue predictions (in particular OpenAI's), that cloud-based agentic coding is closer to its useful limits than people so far understand, that local (on-prem or boutique-hosted if not necessarily on-device) LLMs will do more and more of that work, and that as a result the total addressable market for cloud AI in the next five years is closer to its apex than people in the industry think.
But I am not going to bother to make more specific predictions about the fates of the two big AI companies or the value of the market, because I am not invested in them or the celebrity OpenAI/Anthropic employee influencer aspect of it. I have no team (and I am trying to avoid the products as much as possible).
I have learned in my life not to have too much anxiety about things that won't affect me or I am not close enough to influence.
My limited interest in AI is in the potential offered by smaller models, and I personally think people in the tech industry are thinking in a shallow, FOMO way, obsessing about shiny "frontier" model baubles and what a handful of overpaid loudmouths think, when they should be spending that energy exploring running open weights models and open source tools.