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AI's debt binge can't last, hidden borrowing reaches $1.65T

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Re: AI's debt binge can't last, hidden borrowing reaches $1.65T

#102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do I get zero direct and indirect stock market exposure, no electricity price impact, no RAM or GPU price impact, etc? I'd love to live in a world where AI firms bidding these things up doesn't affect me but I'm really struggling to understand how they aren't impacting the market.

be poor (minus electricity, I guess)

You don’t like computers? Because these corporations are pushing up computer prices, for the rich and poor alike.

Re: AI's debt binge can't last, hidden borrowing reaches $1.65T

#103
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The internet remains the biggest singular development of my entire life. The most valuable companies in the world are internet companies. Journalists have been eager to call AI "over" since 2022, and yet: - Models just got good at writing code this year - Models just got good at editing images last year - Models just got good at cinematic video this year This hasn't even played out. It hasn't even started. Why on ear…

The robotics story is a good example of where overexuberance may be entering the market. What is the connection between LLMs or image generation and robotics, beyond the vague intuition that they're both futuristic AI tech? (Perhaps AI maximalism is true and the entire economy will be eaten soon, but then none of this sector-specific analysis matters.)

There is a huge overhang. Same techniques and sometimes even the same models can drive a lot of robotics coordination and decision making.

Here is probably one of the more clear examples. A model trained on video and also robotic simulation/recording (probably ensembled with control systems/mobility models) will likely be at the core of how robots make decisions and plan.

https://deepmind.google/blog/gemini-robotics-2-brings-whole-...

This is way outside my area of expertise though. I've only dabbled in more classic robotics and control systems, but these multi-modal sequence to sequence models are highly adaptive and can effectively transfer learning across very different domains.

Re: AI's debt binge can't last, hidden borrowing reaches $1.65T

#104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As a bystander directly immune to the fortunes of AI going up or down Sorry to break it to you but you are neither immune nor a bystander to the fortunes of AI going down. You are part of it all whether you like it or not.

You're not breaking anything to me. I deliberately phrased it as "directly immune" because I have no financial stake in AI-related companies. Obviously a debt-bomb of any type imploding reverberates across the economy.

The entire economy collapsing would likely heavily affect you even if you have no financial stake in AI-related companies similarly to how subprime mortgage crisis in the 2000s affected even people without mortgages.

Re: AI's debt binge can't last, hidden borrowing reaches $1.65T

#105
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're not breaking anything to me. I deliberately phrased it as "directly immune" because I have no financial stake in AI-related companies. Obviously a debt-bomb of any type imploding reverberates across the economy.

If you have a 401k, you likely have AI investments.

so 35% of americans are affected :)

Re: AI's debt binge can't last, hidden borrowing reaches $1.65T

#106
post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

be poor (minus electricity, I guess)

You don’t like computers? Because these corporations are pushing up computer prices, for the rich and poor alike.

I have a computer, don’t need a new one

Re: AI's debt binge can't last, hidden borrowing reaches $1.65T

#107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have any examples? Because all of the biggest and most famous crashes were events that only a very small minority of people ever saw coming. Tulips, 1929, Dotcom, Great Recession, 2010's Flash Crash - none of these were in the public discussion before they happened.

I was there for the Great Recession, and they were indeed in the public discussion. I remember the year 2007, as a 20 year old anti-capitalist, I was counting days until the economic crash. As predicted by plenty of left-wing economists at the time. The only people who didn’t see it coming were the capitalists who were invested in the inflated market, and had bought into pseudo-scientific economic theories that serve…

I was too - and to be frank: it's dishonestly revisionist to say this was a topic in the public eye.

There's a very good reason a book (and movie) like The Big Short was such a big hit. It's because it was about the handful of people who actually saw the crash coming and were confident enough to put their money and reputation on the line.

Re: AI's debt binge can't last, hidden borrowing reaches $1.65T

#108
post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're not breaking anything to me. I deliberately phrased it as "directly immune" because I have no financial stake in AI-related companies. Obviously a debt-bomb of any type imploding reverberates across the economy.

The entire economy collapsing would likely heavily affect you even if you have no financial stake in AI-related companies similarly to how subprime mortgage crisis in the 2000s affected even people without mortgages.

In fact, the subprime mortgage crisis impacted the average Joe much more than the fuckers responsible for it, who ran away scot-free with fat money bags.

The financial crash that will happen as the result of the AI speculation bubble popping will be the exact same. You won't see Altman or Dario on the streets, that's for sure.

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