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The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

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Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#101

Post by Arnt »

laughing_man wrote: post #93
jltsiren wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In that scenario, most of the value would be in Starlink. Launch vehicles have always been the cheap part in going to space. Payloads tend to be more expensive, and the actual value is in the services enabled by the payloads.

The revenue is in Starlink, sure, but the value is in the launcher. The reason payloads are expensive is because launch was expensive. If you're paying $10k/kg to launch your satellite you have to make sure it has a 99.9999999% chance of working when it gets to orbit. But if you lived in a world where you pay $10/kg for that same launch and could schedule another launch the next day to replace a payload that didn't w…

$10/kg is what DHL charges me for shipping things 100km. Are you saying that SpaceX intends to approach that price for delivery to orbit?

Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#102

Post by verzali »

adastra22 wrote: post #9
verzali wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Space lift is not very profitable. The money comes from whatever you actually put in orbit with that lift capacity.

SpaceX’s launch services have huge margins.

Demand is low. Remove Starlink and look how often they launch. And look at how it has changed over the years. There's a reason they went so hard into Starlink.

Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#103

Post by rsynnott »

Havoc wrote: post #2

That feels…low. They’re the only one with significant proven and operational space lift capacity

But it doesn't make any _money_. Approximately all the ballpoint pens in the world are dependent on a single company, Mikron Group. It has a market capitalisation of about CHF 275.5 million. "We're the only ones who do that" is insufficient; it has to make money. And honestly, generally, "we're the only ones who do that" is a strong sign that a thing doesn't really make much money; if it did, well, other people would do it.

Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#104

Post by rsynnott »

ben_w wrote: post #59
adastra22 wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China (and others, e.g. Blue Origin and Rocket Lab) are rushing to catch up to where SoaceX was 10 years ago. They are moving faster than anyone in aerospace has ever moved before, but SpaceX is still accelerating faster than that. By the time they catch up, the game will have again changed. SpaceX and NVIDIA share this trait. They out-innovate, and know only one speed: the speed of light. The tortoise can only beat…

> They are moving faster than anyone in aerospace has ever moved before, but SpaceX is still accelerating faster than that. By the time they catch up, the game will have again changed. That was a believable pitch up to around 2020 or so. In 2018 they announced they were going to send a private crewed mission around the moon in 2023. Now we have the benefit of hindsight, it's 2026 and the vessel they were going to use…

I mean, given the pyrotechnics, the most obvious historical analog is the N1.

Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#105

Post by rsynnott »

small_model wrote: post #36
TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China and other competitors have other ideas, even if you're not aware of them. When your whole pitch is that you're commoditising a technology, don't be surprised when you get a commoditised market.

Their lead is insurmountable, might bleed 1/2% to china but they own launch market and will do for the next century.

Has any company ever dominated _any_ major market for a century? Struggling to think of one.

Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#106

Post by rsynnott »

small_model wrote: post #57
SideQuark wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re claiming in 10 years they made something others won’t for another century? This has no historical precedent. China is going to eat them, just like they ate Teslas insurmountable lead in a few short years.

Whats the best selling car in the world? Model Y at 4x the price of number 2. So nope, your claim died on first hurdle. Try harder

Well, first of all, it isn't. It's the best-selling EV, but this is largely due to the fact that Tesla has a very different product approach to the other big EV manufacturers. Tesla has exactly two real models. BYD and VW AG have basically too many models to count, with multiple brands each.

Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#108

Post by laughing_man »

Arnt wrote: post #101
laughing_man wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The revenue is in Starlink, sure, but the value is in the launcher. The reason payloads are expensive is because launch was expensive. If you're paying $10k/kg to launch your satellite you have to make sure it has a 99.9999999% chance of working when it gets to orbit. But if you lived in a world where you pay $10/kg for that same launch and could schedule another launch the next day to replace a payload that didn't w…

$10/kg is what DHL charges me for shipping things 100km. Are you saying that SpaceX intends to approach that price for delivery to orbit?

That's the goal, yes. I doubt they'll actually get there, but they may get to $100.

Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#109

Post by ben_w »

rsynnott wrote: post #104
ben_w wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They are moving faster than anyone in aerospace has ever moved before, but SpaceX is still accelerating faster than that. By the time they catch up, the game will have again changed. That was a believable pitch up to around 2020 or so. In 2018 they announced they were going to send a private crewed mission around the moon in 2023. Now we have the benefit of hindsight, it's 2026 and the vessel they were going to use…

I mean, given the pyrotechnics, the most obvious historical analog is the N1.

Perhaps, and good suggestion regardless, but the Soviet leadership was so adverse to negative publicity that it's hard to be sure how happy they were with hardware-rich testing.

Throwing cheap rockets into the air until they don't explode worked fine for Falcon; but given how long it's taking, I'm not sure it's working okay for Starship, and I'm now completely convinced that this is a *terrible* way to make something that's supposed to land on Mars, refuel, and return.

Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#110

Post by ben_w »

rsynnott wrote: post #105
small_model wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their lead is insurmountable, might bleed 1/2% to china but they own launch market and will do for the next century.

Has any company ever dominated _any_ major market for a century? Struggling to think of one.

I can think of one, but it was awful: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_India_Company

Could be relevant if that whole "robot army" happens.

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