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The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

montanaskeptic.substack.com

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Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#101

Post by ted_bunny »

sschueller wrote: post #6

The point-to-point travel with starship is the one that urks me the most. It is completely unrealistic and will never happen. They have Zürich, Switzerland as a destination. There is no place in all of Zürich to facility such a thing, you will blow out every window in the city at each launch. Absolutely ridiculous that anyone would take this serious. Also don't get me started on data centers in space idea... When the…

"Also don't get me started on data centers in space idea..."

I may have bought a few bridges in my day, but at least bridges are a thing that exists.

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#102

Post by satvikpendem »

henry2023 wrote: post #98
amai wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

New name: Stark Industries?

No, something more original more relatable: X Technologies. /s

It will unironically be named X, because Musk has an obsession with the letter since the PayPal days.

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#103

Post by Gud »

sschueller wrote: post #6

The point-to-point travel with starship is the one that urks me the most. It is completely unrealistic and will never happen. They have Zürich, Switzerland as a destination. There is no place in all of Zürich to facility such a thing, you will blow out every window in the city at each launch. Absolutely ridiculous that anyone would take this serious. Also don't get me started on data centers in space idea... When the…

I live in Zürich and feel uncomfortable about this.

There is no way people in Switzerland will vote yes to this.

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#105

Post by jkman »

riv991 wrote: post #8

I liked Matt Levine's take in his latest podcast. You buy an index because you want to own the market. If you want to own the market in 2026 you want to own SpaceX and Anthropic, and probably OpenAI too. That said, if you think this is as bad as the article claims you'll obviously buy SpaceX at IPO, then sell it when Index funds are obligated to buy.

That'd be a valid response if NASDAQ hadn't changed the rules and let SpaceX sidestep previous index inclusion criteria.

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#106

Post by ggreer »

rich_sasha wrote: post #76
prolly97 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I followed TeslaQ, the valuation was around 60b. Today Tesla has 39b in accumulated retained earning (pr latest 10k, not q). If the thesis was that Tesla would be unable to create a system that would churn out cars that could be sold at scale with an economic surplus, then we have to reject it.

I mean. Sure. Value is ultimately what someone will pay for something, and the name of the game is to buy low and sell high. People who bought TSLA made money. The point is, it's completely irrational - like winning lottery 3x in a row. Tesla's PE ratio, depending on how you look at it, something like 200-350. That means that if nothing changes , the expected return of earnings on your investment is 0.3-0.5%. You'll…

Tesla's valuation is high because investors expect them to sell goods & services other than cars, such as autonomous vehicle rides and humanoid robots for domestic & industrial use.

Who knows if they'll be able to pull it off, but an analysis that treats Tesla as a car company misses why investors have priced so much growth into the company.

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#107

Post by pseudosavant »

This line seems to sum up the Musk Inc. situation perfectly:

> Musk’s detractors have been correct about Tesla’s terrible fundamentals, its Full Self-Driving lies, its robotaxi fantasies, its shaky accounting. But when they have imagined these things might affect the stock price, they have been wrong.

> Someday, someone, somewhere will make a lot of money shorting Tesla or SpaceX. But it’s unlikely to be you.

> For now, Tesla remains better understood as a religion than a financial investment, and we can now add SpaceX to that category.

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#108

Post by FeloniousHam »

pseudosavant wrote: post #107

This line seems to sum up the Musk Inc. situation perfectly: > Musk’s detractors have been correct about Tesla’s terrible fundamentals, its Full Self-Driving lies, its robotaxi fantasies, its shaky accounting. But when they have imagined these things might affect the stock price, they have been wrong. > Someday, someone, somewhere will make a lot of money shorting Tesla or SpaceX. But it’s unlikely to be you. > For n…

I've never understood Tesla's valuation as greater than the entire automotive industry combined.

But as a 95% FSD user, I'm living (and loving) the Full Self-Driving lie.

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#109

Post by forgotTheLast »

jkman wrote: post #105
riv991 wrote: post #8

I liked Matt Levine's take in his latest podcast. You buy an index because you want to own the market. If you want to own the market in 2026 you want to own SpaceX and Anthropic, and probably OpenAI too. That said, if you think this is as bad as the article claims you'll obviously buy SpaceX at IPO, then sell it when Index funds are obligated to buy.

That'd be a valid response if NASDAQ hadn't changed the rules and let SpaceX sidestep previous index inclusion criteria.

If this is expected to be bad for ETF investors, what's stopping let's say Vanguard or Blackrock from creating their own index that tracks the NASDAQ but without the new inclusion rules, and then changing their ETFs' target indexes to that one. Vanguard is investor-owned so it would be in their best interest wouldn't it?
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