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Domain expertise has always been the real moat

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Re: Domain expertise has always been the real moat

#101

How much pontificating needs to be done before people acknowledge nobody has any idea what to do with AI on an individual level? First being good developer and learning how to use AI was sufficient, next it was being able to design architecture, then it was “taste” that made all the difference and now being an expert in the domain is the only thing that matters really. Until AI is basically in a stable, predictable,…

I write software that makes money and AI helps me write software that makes more money.

Re: Domain expertise has always been the real moat

#102
post #82

How much pontificating needs to be done before people acknowledge nobody has any idea what to do with AI on an individual level? First being good developer and learning how to use AI was sufficient, next it was being able to design architecture, then it was “taste” that made all the difference and now being an expert in the domain is the only thing that matters really. Until AI is basically in a stable, predictable,…

Overall I agree with this, though I do think that there will be a trend to hoard/keep-secret domain knowledge by professions. Like plumbers will try and make it a trade-secret or protected intellectual property how to change a pipe fitting.

For basic residential plumbing work the moat is not knowledge. There are already books and YouTube videos that will teach you everything you need to know. Professional plumbers can't stop that. The real moat is that most people don't have time, don't want to buy tools, and don't want to get shit on their hands.

For new construction and commercial work the moat is a contractor's license. They don't allow LLMs to take the licensing exam yet.

Re: Domain expertise has always been the real moat

#103

How much pontificating needs to be done before people acknowledge nobody has any idea what to do with AI on an individual level? First being good developer and learning how to use AI was sufficient, next it was being able to design architecture, then it was “taste” that made all the difference and now being an expert in the domain is the only thing that matters really. Until AI is basically in a stable, predictable,…

Haven’t you heard? If you don’t adapt now you’ll be left behind, never to be able to work again! Copilot? That’s so last year. Agentic engineering? You’re already late!

jibecoding is the latest thing: you insult the LLM's bloodline providing it with greater motivation to complete the code you won't review without bugs.

Re: Domain expertise has always been the real moat

#104
post #94

How much pontificating needs to be done before people acknowledge nobody has any idea what to do with AI on an individual level? First being good developer and learning how to use AI was sufficient, next it was being able to design architecture, then it was “taste” that made all the difference and now being an expert in the domain is the only thing that matters really. Until AI is basically in a stable, predictable,…

LLMs are an additional tool to add to your arsenal. They are not omnipotent and need care, just like any other tool. My best effort, so far, at an analogy is a modern drill driver compared to a screw driver/brace and bit/etc: You can get some remarkable results in a very short time compared to the "old school" gear. You can get some "amazing" anecdotes eg "I screwed down an entire floor at 16" x 1" c/c within an hour…

But a modern drill absolutely 100% removes the need for a brace and bit. An LLM doesn't replace any existing tools.

Re: Domain expertise has always been the real moat

#105
post #51
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a charitable interpretation is that from the perspective of AI, some domains are shallow (like chess), and some are deep (you can fill in the blank here).

What would fill in the blank be? Because this was actually kind of a test for me to address the question of "does AI just amplify domain knowledge?" In this case, it seems it didn't.

For the purposes of chess the domain knowledge is the game rules. And from this pov there is really not much to describe, knowing en-passant exists is the peak of domain knowledge.

The other things you describe, such as endgame tables, are really more related to the domain of chess-computing, a subdomain of algorithms, and likely something you exceed your friend's knowledge in.

Getting to a high rank in chess isn't about better domain knowledge, is about application and experience.

Re: Domain expertise has always been the real moat

#106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Domain expertise combined with a QA mindset could replace SWE, but consistent QA mindset is rare

Personally my ability to understand atrophies / is reduced when compared to writing code ‘myself’ rather than fully being a reviewer. Probably similar to hand writing notes (while digesting + synthesizing and not just being a scribe) vs reading notes somebody else took.

I'm guessing there's some science or research behind this, but I agree. Similarly, I've had projects where I did everything fairly solo—programmed, designed ux/ui, maybe validated with users, etc. It was significantly harder, particularly in the phase where you're working between the first two and the idea isn't perfectly set. It worked much better to design, then build in explicit steps, but it was so easy to start coding, have the design looking and feeling okay, then start iterating on the design—but iterating in code rather than Figma or wherever. It's fine for a little while, but you realize you've spent a day (maybe more) doing it in this less efficient way.

It's similar to the 80/20 rule. When you're coding and designing from the hip, you'll do pretty well for awhile, but as you near completion, you can't quite tie up all the loose design ends. That's the part where it's probably better to just design fully to 100% first and then build, which is closer to what happens when the roles are separate. At least in my experience. I will say though that that part where you're designing in code (productively or wastefully) is pretty fun. At least until you hit the wall and get frustrated with how often you've deleted and rewrote the same thing ten times.

Re: Domain expertise has always been the real moat

#107

How much pontificating needs to be done before people acknowledge nobody has any idea what to do with AI on an individual level? First being good developer and learning how to use AI was sufficient, next it was being able to design architecture, then it was “taste” that made all the difference and now being an expert in the domain is the only thing that matters really. Until AI is basically in a stable, predictable,…

Remember the OOP Hype 20 years ago? I'm still cleaning shit up from then in our codebase when everyone used patterns after skimming through the GoF book without even knowing why .... My prediction is in 20 years I will clean up the shit that was co-authored by Claude ...

https://mastodon.gamedev.place/@JeremiahFieldhaven/116654345...

Re: Domain expertise has always been the real moat

#108
post #47

I recently reviewed an app built mostly with vibe coding. The owner said it was almost ready to launch and just needed a quick check. After looking through it, the database design was a mess. Some features worked, some didn’t. I explained the missing pieces and why things were breaking. Like OP said, he’s the domain expert. I used billions of tokens last month alone. The tools are getting better fast. But giving AI t…

Domain expertise combined with a QA mindset could replace SWE, but consistent QA mindset is rare

The engineering part of software engineering is the hard part for LLMs. How is that replaceable with these skills?

Re: Domain expertise has always been the real moat

#109
post #70

There's a lot of people agreeing and disagreeing with the article, but on what grounds? How do you know "domain expertise" is a "moat"? Vibes? Has there been ongoing, persistent attacks by AI on domain expertise where we can say the moat holds, economically speaking? So far it seems quite the opposite. So far the evidence seems to be pointing to a different adage, Sutton's Bitter Lesson, which (generalized) says to n…

> Has there been ongoing, persistent attacks by AI on domain expertise where we can say the moat holds, economically speaking? So far it seems quite the opposite.

What do you mean by this? Most human white collar workers still have their jobs. I can't see the future, but yes, so far, human expertise is doing ok.

We'll see what happens in 2027, and 2028, and...

Re: Domain expertise has always been the real moat

#110
post #47

I recently reviewed an app built mostly with vibe coding. The owner said it was almost ready to launch and just needed a quick check. After looking through it, the database design was a mess. Some features worked, some didn’t. I explained the missing pieces and why things were breaking. Like OP said, he’s the domain expert. I used billions of tokens last month alone. The tools are getting better fast. But giving AI t…

Domain expertise combined with a QA mindset could replace SWE, but consistent QA mindset is rare

You can't test quality into a product. Regardless of how much of a "QA mindset" you have, you can only ever find a fraction of defects and technical debt through external testing. This can be good enough for a throwaway app that will only be used by a limited customer base for a limited time. But that approach quickly bogs down if you try to scale it into a product that will be used indefinitely by a huge set of external customers. At some point velocity drops to near zero because the code base is such a mess that it becomes impossible to add new features without causing regression defects or breaking backward compatibility.
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