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Internet traffic in Iran increasing

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Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#101
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of it is because transportation is quite difficult. Even today huge tracts in Russia are without any roads. On the opposite end of the spectrum is the US, where even before the railroad and the automobile, transportation was quite easy, with navigable rivers flowing through the best farmland in the world. Another big piece is how easy it is to invade; how hard it is to defend. History records 50 invasions of Ru…

On the other hand, this doesn't explain why Poland, which was even wiped off the maps for a few times, has a GDP per capita almost twice of Russia, which wasn't really invaded much throughout more-or-less-recent history (au contrary).

Russia has paid an economic cost (from e.g. sanctions) for invading UKR. In the year before the invasion, the ratio of Polish GDP per cap to Russian was only 142%. (Also in that year, Polish GDP per cap differed from the GDP per cap of the entire Warsaw-Pact region by only $200.)

I think a country like Russia is still influenced by its experience centuries ago (when it was invaded for a time every single year) and by its experience in WWII. One can argue that (because of nukes and because satellite recon and cheap drones give a tech advantage to the defender) Russia is in a new situation where it can relax and start worrying much less about invasions, but I think that even if the leaders of a country realized that, it would be hard for them to actually change the country. I think for example a big reason that the US is so rich is that (for the white settlers) life in America was always easy. The economy has changed drastically since Colonial American times, when most adults were farmers, but the experience of plentiful high-quality farmland (especially when the settlers started crossing into the Ohio Valley) and plentiful timber and rivers that were a great help to transportation even without doing much work to improve the river system (by adding canals for example) produced a culture that remained adaptive and useful even as the economy was transformed by steam, railroads, the telegraph, cars, electricity, etc.

Germany for example introduced a welfare system in 1871 IIRC. For the average commoner to make a living in Germany was hard enough that the German government of that time (who cannot be accused of having been bleeding hearts) considered it essential to national security for the government to help the commoner out. In contrast, when (many decades after Germany introduced welfare) the Dust Bowl devastated large regions of the US in the 1930s, there were no governmental programs to assist them because most Americans and most American decisionmakers considered such programs to be largely unnecessary.

I believe these governing traditions in the US (which started to change in the 1930s with the election of FDR, who transformed the country more than any previous president except maybe Lincoln) of small-government and individual freedom were conducive to wealth generation whereas the Russian governing tradition where a powerful state is seen as essential to protecting the nation from invasions and where the population tends to depend heavily on the government for its economic security tends to keep a country poor. And again I hypothesize that these governing traditions are difficult to change.

And maybe the reason Poland never develop a strong national-security culture like Russia did is that it was in a hopeless situation with respect to invasions and such (except during the ascendancy of the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth, but I don't think that coalition lasted long) because it was surrounded by more populous, more-cohesive neighbors and did not have much in the way of mountains or bodies of water to slow down invasions from those neighbors: namely, France, Germany, the Austrian empire and Russia. In fact, I believe even Sweden invaded Poland at one point (although it had to cross the Baltic Sea to do so). No matter how much the government of Poland invested in national security, it wouldn't have been enough to move the needle much. In contrast, Russia was a big enough country with enough natural resources (e.g., good farm land, timber) that if it tried really hard over a span of decades, it usually could increase its national security considerably, which led to a national culture that emphasizes a powerful state with a powerful army (and a powerful spy system to suppress uprisings by already-conquered ethnic minorities).

Also, it is in the national interest of the US to prevent Russian re-expansion westward, and between 1989 and 2022 its main two allies in this regard were Poland and Romania (with NATO taking a secondary role), so after 1989 Poland could feel secure (at least till Trump came to power) without having to spend much on defense whereas Russia has felt (and still feels) that they are 100% responsible for their own national security.

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#102
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> Don't trust 5 eyes (this includes CF) What are CF & 5 eyes?

CF is Cloudflare and 5 eyes became like 9 eyes became 13 eyes, but I wouldn't worry about it, it's a 2013 way of thinking.

https://windscribe.com/blog/i-doesnt-matter-how-many-eyes-yo...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Eyes

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#103
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of it is because transportation is quite difficult. Even today huge tracts in Russia are without any roads. On the opposite end of the spectrum is the US, where even before the railroad and the automobile, transportation was quite easy, with navigable rivers flowing through the best farmland in the world. Another big piece is how easy it is to invade; how hard it is to defend. History records 50 invasions of Ru…

On the other hand, this doesn't explain why Poland, which was even wiped off the maps for a few times, has a GDP per capita almost twice of Russia, which wasn't really invaded much throughout more-or-less-recent history (au contrary).

Poland threw off the Soviet corruption far faster than Ukraine has, and Russia has just accelerated the corruption and made it worse.

Which is why the current Paypal Mafia obsession with inflicting the US with Russia-style oligarchy and corruption should be so terrifying to anybody in Silicon Valley that isn't already a billionaire: it will crater the future of the US as leading market for developing new tech, and hand it all over to China, to the extent that China wants to be the home to new tech.

Too much centralized power at the top destroys economic growth, whether it's officially a socialist one, or merely a corrupt one, or just unchecked capitalism where disruption has been squashed by those at the top.

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#104
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Starlink seems to function pretty well in Ukraine.

The kilometers of fiber-optic cable trailing behind Ukrainian drones beg to differ.

I think they don't use starlink on those because it's too expensive / they don't have a enough. A roll of fiber is cheaper on a suicide drone.

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#105
post #47

Any country watching Iran situation should take a way a few things: For one khamenei was known to be against nuclear weapons and was a sort of a peace keeper between hardliners leaning towards lifting sanctions but seems to have been forced into a lame duck through narratives inside and outside along with internal leaks. Two, its no longer possible to shut down the internet with Starlink. Those two were supposed to b…

> For one khamenei was known to be against nuclear weapons and was a sort of a peace keeper between hardliners I think the Iran war was a dumb idea, but you’re repeating propaganda.[1] Khamenei called the shots in Iran. The country had a nuclear weapons program because he wanted it. Iran isn’t an autocracy in the same way China isn’t an autocracy—the mullahs run the country in the same way as the CCP runs China. But…

always fascinating to see people throwing around the word propaganda without being remotely concerned with how they appear to others

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#106
post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The kilometers of fiber-optic cable trailing behind Ukrainian drones beg to differ.

I think they don't use starlink on those because it's too expensive / they don't have a enough. A roll of fiber is cheaper on a suicide drone.

I'm too far removed so I'm sure all the news I read is propaganda, but from first principles, you're on your front doorstop, and your nearest neighbor is 50km away, and you're shining a light back and forth to communicate with them. Your position is that there's no way some asshole can drive around with a truck with their headlights on and mess things up for you?

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#107
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Don't fall for the trap where the US and Israel paints Iran as some authoritarian censor. The US is far more authoritarian" This is total delusion, honestly, it's why people in these systems will remain trapped for a long time. America has many problems but when people in places like Iran start on this bandwagon, it's evidence of inability to just weigh reality in the face of emotional rhetoric. Nobody is suggesting…

> Iran has a ruthlessly oppressive regime, not even comparable to that of the US. Not comparable in domestic affairs... in foreign affairs the situation is reversed. US is by far the most violent, untrustworthy, and oppressive in the world, while Iran looks pretty peaceful and harmless in comparison.

If it were as powerful as the US is, my guess is that Iran would behave a lot worse than the US has. Not to say that US behavior can't be improved.

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#108
post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think they don't use starlink on those because it's too expensive / they don't have a enough. A roll of fiber is cheaper on a suicide drone.

I'm too far removed so I'm sure all the news I read is propaganda, but from first principles, you're on your front doorstop, and your nearest neighbor is 50km away, and you're shining a light back and forth to communicate with them. Your position is that there's no way some asshole can drive around with a truck with their headlights on and mess things up for you?

I don't have a position on that but both sides have used tens of thousands on the things. The range is usually < 50km.

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#109
post #84
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, Iran has been firing missiles at 14 different countries in this war. Not exactly saints.

They didn't start the war. Those countries are hosting bases and troops and providing aid to the enemy who attacked them multiple times while they were negotiating . Why shouldn't they strike US bases and US vassals when fighting a war against the US? Why should they be polite when the US doesn't even honor basic diplomatic norms, let alone pretend to care about international law or rules of engagement?

Iran does not respect 'basic diplomatic norms' or 'intentional law'.

So we should hold the US to account, but we shouldn't magically give the other side a free pass either.

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