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Where does next-token prediction leave us?

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Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#101

Post by weatherlite »

Gigachad wrote: post #76
fny wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think its entirely class. I've met many people who have convinced themselves they have some special sauce--even in software! And even those who are insulated like doctors and plumbers don't realize they're still at risk from second order effects. What happens when half of their customers are broke? That possibility is not an exaggeration. Even if everyone re-skills over night, people will default on their mor…

Even if you are a plumber and we don’t automate plumbing, you’ll have half the population displaced and switching to plumbing. Everything that isn’t automated will be over saturated.

Will so many people switch to plumbing though ? Really depends on how old you are when you get canned (I don't think its realistic for most 40 year olds to start a plumbing career), how good you are with your hands and physical things and whether you can survive the switch psychologically; I don't see many investment bankers or software devs survive such a switch. I'm 42, even if I was very good with my hands (which I'm not) I don't think it would have been a realistic transition; by realistic I mean survivable psychologically.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#102

Post by basicoperation »

ares623 wrote: post #77

Thanks for writing this. It has really left a bad taste (to say it politely) seeing people I consider colleagues, friends, leaders support something like this. These people would spend hours/days/weeks designing systems reasoning through tradeoffs and yet for something like this they can't spend even two seconds thinking through what it all leads to. The usual justification is "someone using AI will replace you". I w…

Do you have the same opinion of labour-saving inventions that were created before you were born, or is it just future ones that are evil?

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#103

Post by weatherlite »

kjkjadksj wrote: post #98
rzmmm wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or average joe becomes DIY plumber with help of chatGPT and there is a lot less demand for plumbers then.

How does average joe afford the tools and parts they need with no job employing them?

How does he afford a plumber then ...?

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#104

Post by dingdongditchme »

dingdongditchme wrote: post #94
fny wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think its entirely class. I've met many people who have convinced themselves they have some special sauce--even in software! And even those who are insulated like doctors and plumbers don't realize they're still at risk from second order effects. What happens when half of their customers are broke? That possibility is not an exaggeration. Even if everyone re-skills over night, people will default on their mor…

So I am expecting the AI bubble to burst (or at least deflate) some time soon. Perhaps this puts me I an specific camp, I am not sure. But this whole "AI will replace X jobs" does not phase me, not because I think AI is useless. On the contrary I am a daily user, but in my mind, people fail to see that the economy is not built around jobs and capital, but wants (or needs) and trades. Even in a world where everything…

[dead]

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#105

Post by kjkjadksj »

RobotToaster wrote: post #30
mmilunic wrote: post #8

> Non-technical middle managers who have not written a line of code in their lives, now feel that the biggest obstacle between them and greatness has lifted. I find it interesting how this is almost the “democratization” you mentioned that AI provides. While AI “democratizes” certain technical ability, in some ways the democratization of things can actually be bad, in that this “democratization” pushes us towards a s…

> in that this “democratization” pushes us towards a system in which people are completely fungible, and so lose their individual bargaining capability. Hasn't this been the case since the power loom put hand weavers out of a job?

This time it is different. Ai promised to be the power loom for all things. Knowledge work and all physical work through robotics. And there will be no more jobs to turn to. Why might an AI company allow for humanity to live in this future? They’d have no utility. No economic purpose. They’d have no unique skill. Supporting them over the datacenter amounts to investing in waste heat. And they may even rise up and destabilize the horror you’ve created for planet earth. Game theory suggests keeping humans on earth is increasingly a liability.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#106

Post by wcfrobert »

simianwords wrote: post #62

This author fundamentally doesn't understand the mental model of the people they are describing and makes huge sweeping claims in what they think is a in a savvy manner but they are completely wrong. Here's the RIGHT mental model of the people the author is talking about. 1. If AI is good enough that it can boost productivity by 20% then it is good for society in general because the gains will be redistributed (as it…

On point 1: I generally agree with you about the benefits of technological progress on a long enough time horizon. But what about the short term? What mechanism of redistribution are you assuming for the displaced workers? A scary number of Americans live pay check to pay check. How many will be forced to default on their mortgage or withdraw from their retirement savings? How many can afford to go back to school to retrain to be a plumber or nurse?

Breaking eggs to make omelette sounds good unless you're the egg. There's an excellent quote from Thomas Friedman: "when you get laid off, the unemployment rate is not 3.4%, it's a 100%". It's great to fantasize about future utopian abundance, but most people live in the present and most will be presently ground to powder. All technologies have a barbelling effect. Redistribution of surplus does not happen by default. The tumult and disruption may last a decade or more. And the fruits, if we make it to the other side, will not be for this generation to enjoy. The textile workers did not cheer for the loom, because they were not the ones that enjoyed the joy of cheap Uniqlo or H&M t-shirts.

On point 2: Many people derive meaning and identity from their work. Acquiring expertise, feeling useful, contributing to society, honing your craft are all things that leads to a good life. It could be that after AI we will all write poetry in the morning, go fishing in the afternoon, and paint in the evenings, but I don't think most people are like this, it's certainly not the way I am wired.

On point 3: "utopian AI is so good that words can't describe it so it can't and shouldn't be stopped". I do not think utopian abundance is guaranteed just by copy-pasting data centers across the globe. There is a non-negligible chance that things go really badly.

Lastly, I think the usage of the word "class" shouldn't automatically be linked to "Marxist ideology". This is cheap rhetoric: "class" --> associated with Marx --> communist loonies of the 20th century --> therefore disregard all argument presented.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#107

Post by piokoch »

NoMoreNicksLeft wrote: post #70
mmilunic wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps this is a form of Gell-Mann Amnesia (but kinda inverted) where everyone views AI as too inaccurate for their own niche , but perfectly fine for every other field that they know comparably little about.

The real trouble isn't that it can replace us. Instead, consider that when there have been two comparable technologies in the market, the market has invariably chosen the lowest-quality/worst one. Why? That's easy to understand... while the chosen option is objectively the worst, it's always the cheapest. And cheapest wins. It's not "can AI do his job?" so much as "is the AI cheaper than a human?". And I think we all…

If this were true, nobody would be buying iPhones, nobody would be buying Teslas, in fact, nobody would be buying premium class cars.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#108

Post by weatherlite »

dyauspitr wrote: post #58
mmilunic wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps this is a form of Gell-Mann Amnesia (but kinda inverted) where everyone views AI as too inaccurate for their own niche , but perfectly fine for every other field that they know comparably little about.

You think every person only thinks of their own job and no one dreams of anything bigger from humanity’s perspective? I’m never going to be in some kind of space colony but do I want to see them happen? You betcha.

> You think every person only thinks of their own job and no one dreams of anything bigger from humanity’s perspective?

Yes, the vast majority of people care about their jobs first rather than a theoretical future where mostly rich people colonize space. It's much easier to imagine yourself becoming poor than living in Mars.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#110

Post by ares623 »

basicoperation wrote: post #102
ares623 wrote: post #77

Thanks for writing this. It has really left a bad taste (to say it politely) seeing people I consider colleagues, friends, leaders support something like this. These people would spend hours/days/weeks designing systems reasoning through tradeoffs and yet for something like this they can't spend even two seconds thinking through what it all leads to. The usual justification is "someone using AI will replace you". I w…

Do you have the same opinion of labour-saving inventions that were created before you were born, or is it just future ones that are evil?

I did not have a voice to inventions created before I was an adult. I have one now. And in fact, we have lessons from very similar technologies on how this would play out (internet + social media), so we can't say "how could we have known?!".
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