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Why Almost Everyone Loses–Except a Few Sharks–On Prediction Markets

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Re: Why Almost Everyone Loses–Except a Few Sharks–On Prediction Markets

#101
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm well aware of "Bullshit Jobs", but that's more support for my conclusion that the modern economy has failed. Why do we have people doing bullshit jobs rather than something else? My argument is taken to its logical conclusion plenty of places in this economy, it's just not evenly distributed -- just look at the minimum wage being $7/hr juxtaposed next to an extra value mean being $12. That's a failed economy, sor…

There's a lot I could unpack here, but I'm just going to pull on the string I find most interesting. "Why do we have people doing bullshit jobs rather than something else?" There honestly isn't that much else left to do. Most of us in the western world are incredibly well fed, well housed, well transported, well educated, well defended, and well cared for(health/dental). Sure, all of that could be better and/or cheap…

> There honestly isn't that much else left to do.

No, there's toooons of work to do. It sounds like you and yours are doing fine. My community is hungry, sick, lacks access to education, faces striking illiteracy, are not only not defended by but are actively attacked by local police and security forces.

> What exactly do you expect the rest of us to do with our time and how will it be anything other than bullshit?

Well there's a national childcare crisis going on where childcare costs more than a mortgage. There's also an education crisis going on where education costs more than people make in 10 years. There's a housing crisis going on where people can't into homes and are becoming forever renters. There's a healthcare crisis going on where people cannot actually afford to go to the doctor or have to ration their medications to get the care they need -- even with insurance. So my proposal would be to take people a way from doing bullshit jobs and get them into those professions to help out with those various crises.

Re: Why Almost Everyone Loses–Except a Few Sharks–On Prediction Markets

#102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do people here and the WSJ comprehend though that they are giving Polymarket free publicity to farm addicts?

This is like saying that "Supersize me" is free publicity for MacDonalds.

every casino's business model is about get-in-the-door appeal in order to fish out a handful of very lucrative whales. polymarket included. so no they're not really comparable.

Re: Why Almost Everyone Loses–Except a Few Sharks–On Prediction Markets

#103
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm well aware of "Bullshit Jobs", but that's more support for my conclusion that the modern economy has failed. Why do we have people doing bullshit jobs rather than something else? My argument is taken to its logical conclusion plenty of places in this economy, it's just not evenly distributed -- just look at the minimum wage being $7/hr juxtaposed next to an extra value mean being $12. That's a failed economy, sor…

There's a lot I could unpack here, but I'm just going to pull on the string I find most interesting. "Why do we have people doing bullshit jobs rather than something else?" There honestly isn't that much else left to do. Most of us in the western world are incredibly well fed, well housed, well transported, well educated, well defended, and well cared for(health/dental). Sure, all of that could be better and/or cheap…

> There honestly isn't that much else left to do.

There are so many problems in the world, you really can't think of anything that would be helped by someone well educated and motivated to work on any of those problems?

People going hungry, unhoused, traumatized, the Earth's warming, there's cancer. Getting funding for those things is also hard, but that's also a job!

Re: Why Almost Everyone Loses–Except a Few Sharks–On Prediction Markets

#104
post #74
post #57

I realize I'm an N of 1, but I've participated in prediction markets since 2019 and am just above 5 figures in profit. Not life-changing money, but it certainly doesn't hurt. I'm pretty conservative in my predictions and just think there is a lot of free money on these sites. Maybe that just supports the sentiments of this article and most of the negative comments on this post. There are certainly cases where I got r…

I think the problem with prediction markets is the ease of people changing the outcome and profiting on it from others expense. It’s worse than insider trading as it’s betting that Kyle’s mom will bomb Gaza and then making it happen. Any societal good from knowing is outweighed by the injustice. If there was any regulation by government or the markets themselves then it would be better. Betting in things you can’t af…

> Betting in things you can’t affect like the weather

get a hairdryer and you too can control the weather

Re: Why Almost Everyone Loses–Except a Few Sharks–On Prediction Markets

#105
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you heard of the Sucker Effect? Your gains come solely from the those who made the wrong bet. There is no inherent value generation in the prediction markets unlike the stock markets. Yes, there is money to be made, but at a net loss to the society, so many would not consider these bets "opportunities" but rather "gambling".

The value generation is for passive observers: it is theoretically more informative to be told that there is a y% chance of x from someone with a financial incentive to be right. (also, we allow plenty of zero and negative sum interactions in society. I don't know why this is special.)

This one is regulated as a commodities derivative rather than gambling

Call a spade a spade, rather than calling it a club because the president’s son is on the board

Corruption is corruption.

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