> we suspect that many people who have access to private jets will immediately take to the skies and escape city centers. I would bet on the exact opposite. Unless you're within a few hundred meters of ground zero you're better off seeking shelter than trying to run, and if you are running you only want to go those few hundred meters and then take shelter. The local airport where your plane presumably is would be far…
> Your plane's electronics are going to get fried by EMPs.
Oldschool piston engine aircraft with magnetos will probably be fine.
If you wanted to be really sure, look into the diesel engine conversions based on good old Peugeot XUDs - and your Citroën BX will be unaffected too ;-)
There was a Sci-Fi book I read where this was a service provided to rich people. Basically you signed up for it, and you'd get a text when everything was about to go down. Time to drop everything and fly to your bunker.
Any chances you'll recall the title? It sounds interesting
i have a hard time fathoming why anyone would bet yes. if they’re right isn’t their money irrelevant anyway?
One factor: There's a limit on shorting, due to discounting. Suppose you're 100% convinced that Jesus does not return by 2027, so you want to buy the "No" trading at 96 cents. But you only get your 1$ back in 2028, when the bet resolves. You're not going to pay more than 96 cents for that if you can instead put them in risk free treasuries for the same paltry return. Thus, the 4% yes are not necessarily people active…
Yep, not much profit over long time horizons in correcting a relatively small number of people who are either delusional enough to believe in second comings or think it's a fun bet
To add to that, even if there's zero probability of an actual Second Coming, there's nonzero risk whatever oracle a betting market uses gets hijacked by Second Coming believers who resolve some new Jesus.AI or declaration by a cult leader as representing the authentic return of the Biblical Jesus, plus risks of exchanges defaulting on all bets or your winnings being locked up for gambling-restriction related reasons. For related reasons, you could earn money betting on Trump winning the most votes in 2020 after they'd been counted.
Would ADS-B Exchange heatmap files would be accessible at even DEFCON 2? Which raises the question of what it would show when the data sources are not available.
By definition it's a bit of a lagging indicator, unless we assume that all these folks have better access to inside information than the rest of us. Given that I was well aware of, for example, the likelihood of a Covid pandemic well before a bunch of rich people flew to New Zealand, it seems likely that CNN is gonna be a better gauge.
I think the point is exactly that some people do have better information for wars. In COVID's case nobody knew how governments all over the world would react and how bad the situation would get (and rich people weren't particularly affected anyway) but for wars we do have regular insider trading happening because it's easy to know more or less exactly "there is going to be an attack".
I made something like this in like 2007 called Apocalypse Feed. It took in a few factors and aggregated them into a 0-to-100 number that updated and published over RSS. First it pinged debian mirrors around the world and made a map based on mirror city's lat/long: green for online, red for offline. If there was a cluster of red, that part of the world was considered gone. Then it checked space weather data and neares…
Can you keep an eye on government planes that would be airborned if the SHTF? E-4Bs, E-6s, VC-25As, C-32A, etc plus mass helo flights exiting DC. Topic reminds me of the movie Miracle Mile.
As someone already mentioned, these are often tracked on Twitter. Just wanted to add: many of these Air Force and government planes use ADS-B so they're easy to follow. Seems to be more tankers and cargo that do. We were able to watch some of the movements to Venezuela and Iran in advance of hostilities. Other interesting things have popped up like US or British intel flights over the Black Sea. This would be a great…
> We were able to watch some of the movements to Venezuela and Iran in advance of hostilities.
These were deliberately visible to show that the US is not messing around this time. A mass evacuation would never advertise in ads-b. But perhaps you could see a drop in activity as hidden planes get priority on the runway?
> The Yes people are betting that, later this year, their counterparties (the No betters) will want cash (to bet on other markets), and so will sell out of their No positions at a higher price.
Can you keep an eye on government planes that would be airborned if the SHTF? E-4Bs, E-6s, VC-25As, C-32A, etc plus mass helo flights exiting DC. Topic reminds me of the movie Miracle Mile.
You can, but people seem to forget the job of the military when they're not actually fighting a war is to practice fighting wars. I remember this kind of thing happening all the time when I was in. We had a reserve exercise in Texas where someone got a hold of the operations order in media and thought we were going to literally occupy the state. When we ramped down counterinsurgency after leaving Iraq and started sending all the heavy units back to NTC in California to relearn how to be heavy units, a bunch of people saw hundreds of tanks on trains going west and thought it was some kind of real mobilization. My wife used to work on an experimental radar project that flew unmarked planes with no tail numbers out of a commercial airport under a Navy unit that had no official presence and didn't wear uniforms, but it's pretty obvious to anyone watching they're Navy planes because it's identical models but with radar units attached you'd never see on operational craft. People thought they were smuggling drugs, surveilling the public, testing alien tech, whatever crazy shit the Internet can dream up. All they were doing was collecting data for validation testing, flying over land and water they controlled because that's the only way to get real ground truth.