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Will you heed my warnings now?

scottaaronson.blog

101–106 of 106 posts

Re: Will you heed my warnings now?

#101
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo had millions in 2015.

Waymo doesn't seem to know it. https://waymo.com/research/safety-performance-of-the-waymo-r... > Waymo’s rider-only ride-hailing operations reached its first one million rider-only miles on January 21, 2023

"Autonomous" (with safety driver) and "rider-only" are different things.

Re: Will you heed my warnings now?

#102
post #45
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> dismissing the Manhattan Project as hopelessly stalled in 1944 Then again, there are enough examples of failed projects. Why should this be comparable to the Manhattan project? In 1944, it was only two years underway, whereas Shor's algorithm is over 30. Tons of articles have been published on quantum computing, while the A bomb was kept as secret as possible, making learning from other countries, sometimes even fr…

The main point is that just as you can't ask for tiny nuclear explosion because nuclear physics just doesn't work that way, you also can't ask for factoring of 21 with Shor's algorithm. Quantum computing just doesn't work that way, sorry.

>The main point is that just as you can't ask for tiny nuclear explosion because nuclear physics just doesn't work that way

You absolutely can, which is why Fermi did just that as part of the Manhattan project with the Chicago Pile 1, demonstrating the first self sustaining nuclear chain reaction.

In 1942.

Your analogy is broken.

Re: Will you heed my warnings now?

#103
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The main point is that just as you can't ask for tiny nuclear explosion because nuclear physics just doesn't work that way, you also can't ask for factoring of 21 with Shor's algorithm. Quantum computing just doesn't work that way, sorry.

>The main point is that just as you can't ask for tiny nuclear explosion because nuclear physics just doesn't work that way You absolutely can, which is why Fermi did just that as part of the Manhattan project with the Chicago Pile 1, demonstrating the first self sustaining nuclear chain reaction. In 1942. Your analogy is broken.

That was not a tiny explosion, me thinks.

Re: Will you heed my warnings now?

#104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mea culpa! I must have had a brain fart and added the 3 in there. My sincere apologies! Of course I can't find the link to whatever I read that discussed gpu accelerated des cracking now.

Phew, thought I'd missed an important development there! The 3 makes the difference :)

[dead]

Re: Will you heed my warnings now?

#105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And in the process immediately convert huge numbers of devices into ewaste. Then check the excuse calendar again for tomorrow's reason to deprecate yet another batch of "legacy" ciphers from openSSL.

The sooner we start making devices ready for better encryption systems, the fewer devices will be wasted.

No, because there always are "better encryption systems", whether for good reasons or not that's another story.

Re: Will you heed my warnings now?

#106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The sooner we start making devices ready for better encryption systems, the fewer devices will be wasted.

No, because there always are "better encryption systems", whether for good reasons or not that's another story.

It's not another story, the quality of the reasons for scrapping / upgrading devices is the most important thing here.

If the reasons are "the current devices are insecure or likely to become insecure" that's very different from "the new encryption system is a little bit better so there's not much point in upgrading".

If quantum computing never becomes a practical thing, the current hardware and software will stay secure. If it becomes practical, they won't. Seems simple enough.

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