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US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

nytimes.com

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Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#101

Post by bawolff »

adrian_b wrote: post #96
drnick1 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It seems pretty clear that Trump doesn't want to spend the resources (and lives) required to do so. Events so far suggest the opposite. This is the first president in decades that took decisive action against Iran. Iran is weaker than ever, and this is perhaps a once in a century opportunity to end the Islamic threat once and for all. If Iran folds, Hamas, Hezbollah, and others will quickly follow and the region wi…

What you say is absolutely ridiculous. Israel would have been now at permanent peace if they had not murdered Yitzhak Rabin, or if Ariel Sharon had not succeeded to sabotage the government of Ehud Barak and to restart the hostilities with the Palestinians. No matter how much they succeed to destroy in Iran, that will never bring peace any closer. By going on this path, there is only one way to achieve "peace": kill e…

This is silly, plenty of wars, even vicious ones, have ended in peace without killing everyone on one of the sides.

> This permanent war economy is perfect for Israeli business owners and for the Israeli government.

This is obviously not true when the IDF is primarily a conscript army. Conscription is bad for business. It is very difficult to run a business when your employees are being conscripted.

Not to mention how much of a disaster all of this has been for Israel's reputation in the world. Trade, not to mention tourism is based on reputation, and other then the defense industry, Israel is not doing well PR wise at the moment.

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#102

Post by adrian_b »

hugh-avherald wrote: post #99
adrian_b wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While it is hard to believe that someone in the US military believed that such a mission for uranium extraction can be successful, it is at least equally hard to believe that the US military has spent around a half of billion dollars just for saving 2 men, while also risking the lives of a very large number of other US combatants. Saving your men is important, but it should have been easy to do that at a much lower c…

I can certainly believe that the assurance the US gives to its pilots that they will never be left behind and the public demonstration of that assurance as something the US values in the billions of dollars. It is also clear that if the mission was not a purely rescue mission then it would have taken a lot more equipment than what appears to have been used. Even for an escalade style high-risk low-probability mission…

We do not know how much equipment was used.

We know only approximately how much equipment has been lost. It is likely that much more equipment was used than what has been lost, i.e. many more transport airplanes than the 2 lost and many more helicopters.

Nevertheless, I agree that a possible explanation is what you propose, i.e. that the mission could have been more a test of the Iranian defense than an incursion that was actually expected to succeed.

In any case, if it was a test it was also a failure, as the defense was stronger than they expected, leading to excessive equipment losses.

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#103

Post by arrrg »

YZF wrote: post #59
kumarvvr wrote: post #23

What leverage does US actually have here? Even Israel for that matter? The only options left for US are large scale bombing, like in Vietnam or Cambodia OR putting soldiers on the ground. Going on for years. Or drop a nuke. Bombing will be of limited use and extremely costly, because is Iran is too large. Its a geographical fortress, mostly large mountain ranges, or deserts. Soldiers on the ground means a large scale…

To figure out the leverage just imagine 50 fighter jets over your head each with 6 heavy bombs where their goal is to blow you up. Now argue that those controlling those jets have no leverage. Bombing has limits but can also do a lot of damage. It's true not every single IRGC member or leader can be bombed out of existence. But many can. It's also true that some infrastucture is buried. But a lot isn't. Specifically…

The amount of suffering the regime in Iran and the US administration are willing to accept and can bear is probably wildly disproportionate and much higher on the side of Iran.

That also substantially weakens any leverage the US has.

A mere slight increase in gas prices and slight threat to the economy can already substantially weaken US will to fight …

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#104

Post by Gud »

kumarvvr wrote: post #41
bawolff wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What leverage does US actually have here? Even Israel for that matter? Arguably, in a continous war setting Iran eventually runs out of money to pay its soldiers or build new misiles. Especially if their oil facilities are bombed. I dont think iran can physically keep this up long term. The counter balance to that is usa cannot keep this up politically even in the short term.

The money thing is true. But China and Russia will extend support. Iran is collecting about 2 million USD from each vessel through the strait. And they are about 50 passing through them each day. That's 100 million USD per day. Or about 30 odd Bullion USD per year. Plenty of money to spend on war and some more. Not to mention the money it earns from selling it's oil and blocking GCC oil.

> Iran is collecting about 2 million USD from each vessel through the strait.

No they aren’t. They’re collecting ¥14M.

Maybe nitpicking, but I believe this is the most important change to come out of Israel’s and USA’s war against Iran. The petrodollar is dead, and this will have severe long term consequences for the USA.

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#105

Post by adrian_b »

bawolff wrote: post #101
adrian_b wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you say is absolutely ridiculous. Israel would have been now at permanent peace if they had not murdered Yitzhak Rabin, or if Ariel Sharon had not succeeded to sabotage the government of Ehud Barak and to restart the hostilities with the Palestinians. No matter how much they succeed to destroy in Iran, that will never bring peace any closer. By going on this path, there is only one way to achieve "peace": kill e…

This is silly, plenty of wars, even vicious ones, have ended in peace without killing everyone on one of the sides. > This permanent war economy is perfect for Israeli business owners and for the Israeli government. This is obviously not true when the IDF is primarily a conscript army. Conscription is bad for business. It is very difficult to run a business when your employees are being conscripted. Not to mention ho…

I have worked for many years in Israel, so what I say is from first hand knowledge, not from hearsay.

You are right that conscription is bad for business.

Nevertheless, in most businesses the employees lost to conscription are a small fraction of the workforce. Much more is gained from the pressure that can be applied on all the other employees, due to the permanent war economy. I pitied my Israeli colleagues, most of whom were very nice people, but who were powerless against the system that exploited them.

You are right about the reputation, but it appears that the power is held by those who do not care about reputation.

I have lived in Israel both before and after Ariel Sharon and his accomplices seized the power. The differences in tourism were huge, because before that you could walk safely anywhere through Israel, while after that you had to avoid carefully any place inhabited by Arabs, unless you had appropriate weapons with you, for any emergency.

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#106

Post by Gud »

4gotunameagain wrote: post #89
YZF wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's very hard to imagine nuclear weapons being used in this conflict.

Is it? Israel is a rogue state at this point, and it has openly stated that were the US to withdraw, they would use "any means necessary". They seem to not be satisfied by causing global economic harm, they want nuclear annihilation as well.

If they do, they will be exterminated.

There is no timeline where Israel comes out victorious if they start using nuclear weapons.

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#107

Post by Gud »

3eb7988a1663 wrote: post #94
Gud wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would that be prudent? Seems to me the underground fortress is working well.

A defensible fortress is nice, but even better if the enemy does not know where you hide the goods. Supposedly there is <1000 pounds of the good stuff, you could move that anywhere. Without any immediate plans to use the uranium, securing it for the future strikes me as the sound choice.

You’re right that they should spread it out over many locations.

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#108

Post by Protostome »

4gotunameagain wrote: post #100
Protostome wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gaza and Lebanon were not part of the cease fire agreement. Besides, After the first round of hostilities the ceasefire agreement reached between Israel and Lebanon included the disarmament of Hezbullah, and sending the Lebanese army to take the south under control. None of which was done, so Israel had to do it by itself

Like you I do not have a direct line with the diplomats of the involved countries, but every major news outlet was including Lebanon in the agreement. What Israel is doing by itself is occupying more land and vilifying the concept of humanity, not "taking the south under control". Let me remind you that Hezbollah has founded as a direct reply to the '82 invasion of Lebanon by Israel. The whole source of pain, misery…

[flagged]

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#109

Post by 4gotunameagain »

Protostome wrote: post #108
4gotunameagain wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like you I do not have a direct line with the diplomats of the involved countries, but every major news outlet was including Lebanon in the agreement. What Israel is doing by itself is occupying more land and vilifying the concept of humanity, not "taking the south under control". Let me remind you that Hezbollah has founded as a direct reply to the '82 invasion of Lebanon by Israel. The whole source of pain, misery…

[flagged]

Why would anyone in their right mind next to Israel disarm ? So they can have their land occupied by ultra orthodox jew nazis ?

And on the contrary, the major news outlets are infested by israeli propaganda.

Letting israel exist ? Does israel leave Gaza exist ? Or the west bank ? Or Syria, or Lebanon ? Or any of those people that have been living there for thousands of years, not just 80 ?

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#110

Post by cassianoleal »

Protostome wrote: post #92
4gotunameagain wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not true. The violations of ceasefires by Israel in Gaza and Lebanon were a clear indication that there was no desire for diplomacy, only continuation of the atrocities. This is not a ceasefire entered in bad faith, it is simply a strategic usage of one of the few tools that can end a war, and in my opinion morally abhorrent.

Gaza and Lebanon were not part of the cease fire agreement. Besides, After the first round of hostilities the ceasefire agreement reached between Israel and Lebanon included the disarmament of Hezbullah, and sending the Lebanese army to take the south under control. None of which was done, so Israel had to do it by itself

> With the greatest humility, I am pleased to announce that the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America, along with their allies, have agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere including Lebanon and elsewhere, EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY.

PM of Pakistan announced without a doubt after the agreement that Lebanon "and elsewhere" were included.

"Western" media seemed to gloss over this "small detail".

https://www.livemint.com/news/world/pakistan-pm-shehbaz-shar...

https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/4/8/how-pakistan-man...

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