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Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

theguardian.com

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Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#101

Post by phil21 »

bethekidyouwant wrote: post #95
phil21 wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eh what? It’s literally the only reason for prediction markets to exist. Otherwise they are simple gambling and pointless. The only way you get more wisdom from “the crowd” is if it teases folks who hold non-public (or at least less public) information into the market to refine the odds towards what they should be. Without insider information the entire concept is dead on arrival. Yes randos are gonna gamble because…

That’s not true. Consider a jar of jellybeans.

That would go under someone who thinks they have more information than they think they do. Perhaps you are great at mathematics and think you can estimate much better than the average bidder. The person who filled the jar is going to have even better information than you do. Or perhaps not. Maybe they miscounted or their manager added a handful before they screwed the top of the jar on.

If the market that is taking the bet also filled the jar, then sure it’s just outright fraud at that point. But the market exists to get the real information into the open. Betting that an insider just isn’t going to play is a variable you consider when placing your bet imo.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#102

Post by munk-a »

koolala wrote: post #78
irishcoffee wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The amount of money to be made on these markets is in the tens of millions at best. This administration doesn’t care about that. I understand why you feel that way, the numbers are just too inconsequential to even move the needle. Bit players with knowledge that have been perennially underpaid by the us govt. however, mortgage-saving money. I don’t blame them. Do you? “I’m aware of a big decision and I can make 23k o…

This is just one market. The other bets are all across the stock market.

Or in paying a part of the tariff bill for companies in exchange to an entitlement to the full refund if the tariffs were ruled unconstitutional.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#103

Post by bethekidyouwant »

boramalper wrote: post #27

> The wallets “definitely [look like] someone with some degree of inside info”, said Ben Yorke, formerly a researcher with CoinTelegraph, now building an AI trading platform called Starchild. Ben Yorke is the only expert I see mentioned in the article, so it'd be a lot more accurate (and a lot less sensational) if The Guardian changed its title to "... says one expert" (but it wouldn't sound as interesting then, woul…

You don’t have to be an insider to know that the US wants to broker a peace deal now that they’ve gotten themselves deep in the shit. Also, how could a Washington insider know if a peace deal will actually be brokered they have to negotiate with the other party after all.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#104

Post by cyanydeez »

cj wrote: post #84
broof wrote: post #83

Isn’t one of the points of betting markets is to incentivize this? Now me, as someone who doesn’t have access to insider knowledge, can know that there’s a noticeably increased chance of what’s going to happen. I do think maybe there should be some sort of feature to prevent last minute bets that utilizes insider knowledge, and I do admit there are considerable negative externalities to this system but it’s not clear…

> Isn’t one of the points of betting markets is to incentivize this? No. It’s an unintended side effect that risks breaking trust in the system by (the majority of) players who don’t have insider knowledge.

yarg, its a betting market that takes uncontrolled bets. I dont see how anyone that's not part of the grift economy can claim it's anything but.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#105

Post by Aurornis »

fabian2k wrote: post #80
Aurornis wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The bet amounts are small relative to the political scandal that would follow top administration officials who have decision making power. If there is insider trading it's most likely low-level staffers or friends of officials who speak too freely. If a high ranking official wanted to make a lot of money on these moves in an untraceable way, there are numerous financial market opportunities. The amount they could mak…

What scandal? They're openly corrupt and no consequences have followed so far.

Noem was removed from her position recently due to scandal. Weeks ago.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#106

Post by triceratops »

maxdo wrote: post #67
jmyeet wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not really up to the US and Israel when this war of choice ends anymore. It's up to Iran. And Iran, justifiably, is going to demand their pound of flesh. That could require some combination of ending the (criminal) sanctions, de-militarizing the Gulf and reining in Israel. The problem is all of these things are politically untenable. This is the only reason why I think this war could continue long term because T…

[flagged]

> promised not to build advanced records

Like Dark Side of the Moon or Ok Computer?

(/s idk what "advanced records" was actually meant to be)

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#107

Post by coevcan »

mikkupikku wrote: post #17

If the administration decides to end this stupid war just so they can cash out some profitable bets... I don't even know what I would think. The whole thing is so stupid it makes my head hurt.

Are you really going to suggest trump cares about an $820k bet? He doesn't even care to collect his presidential salary.

I'm sure he exaggerates his wealth, but we know he's at least a billionaire.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#108

Post by hatthew »

phil21 wrote: post #90
cj wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Isn’t one of the points of betting markets is to incentivize this? No. It’s an unintended side effect that risks breaking trust in the system by (the majority of) players who don’t have insider knowledge.

Eh what? It’s literally the only reason for prediction markets to exist. Otherwise they are simple gambling and pointless. The only way you get more wisdom from “the crowd” is if it teases folks who hold non-public (or at least less public) information into the market to refine the odds towards what they should be. Without insider information the entire concept is dead on arrival. Yes randos are gonna gamble because…

> Otherwise they are simple gambling

maybe I'm dumb but I thought gambling is the whole point

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#109

Post by echelon »

bethekidyouwant wrote: post #95
phil21 wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eh what? It’s literally the only reason for prediction markets to exist. Otherwise they are simple gambling and pointless. The only way you get more wisdom from “the crowd” is if it teases folks who hold non-public (or at least less public) information into the market to refine the odds towards what they should be. Without insider information the entire concept is dead on arrival. Yes randos are gonna gamble because…

That’s not true. Consider a jar of jellybeans.

A "market" is hypothesized to be "efficient" at price discovery.

An efficient "prediction market" would more quickly resolve to its expected outcome due to not only skin-in-the-game bets by experts, but also the influence of insiders.

Furthermore, bets are likely to shape outcomes. Betting someone will be assassinated (not allowed on Polymarket) would likely increase the probability of that outcome had there been no bet at all.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#110

Post by bethekidyouwant »

TacticalCoder wrote: post #63
tmnvix wrote: post #15

> “For the purposes of this market, an ‘official ceasefire agreement’ requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.” (by March 31) Seems a rather risky bet considering how deep Israel has ventured into its war in Lebanon. Very doubtful they will stop anytime soon. Given the leverage Israel ha…

[flagged]

Their drones are cheap easy to conceal, and can keep the straight closed indefinitely. And what other leverage do they have besides them keeping the straight closed?
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