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I don't know if my job will still exist in ten years

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Re: I don't know if my job will still exist in ten years

#101

Post by dd8601fn »

wvxf wrote: post #98
georgemcbay wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I know a lot of people working across portfolio management and tax accounting. Nobody I know of is using LLMs much and frankly their management has started to back-off pushing it more in the workplace. I could say the same thing for software engineers I know as recently as the middle of last year, things can change very quickly. Up until about December 2025 the fact that LLMs would replace us all (SWEs) was the pun…

Sorry man. This feels like you are hoping SWE alone isn’t affected. Unfortunately the workflow of a software engineer has been to do things like asking questions on stack overflow to do their job - to use digital resources scattered across the web - to show examples of code freely across the web. The workflow of an accountant, portfolio manager etc has nothing to do with accessing and using the web in the same manner…

Tax and accounting is rule based reporting. With formal authorities and openly available rulesets on right and wrong. There’s judgement in it, but that’s even less true than in development. Maybe someone makes the case that there’s art and ergonomics in it too, but not more than swe.

Professional accreditation and responsibility is its only real moat. And those are “yeah but!” issues we hand-wave in discussions around swe too.

Otherwise those are more vulnerable.

Re: I don't know if my job will still exist in ten years

#102

Post by satvikpendem »

ofrzeta wrote: post #49
satvikpendem wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Meaningful work" for work's sake, why? I have no desire to work in a farm or a factory when I can work from the peace of my own home without breaking my back. Not to mention the work that other people do too, like doctors and scientists, which directly positively impact my own life. If they were to say, let's not continue progressing, then that's not a world I'd want to live in.

It depends on what we define as progress. At times nuclear power was considered progress while it's no longer now (at least to that extent). Why couldn't we consider a society with less technology as progressive? Learning that less reliance on technology makes us more resilient as individuals and as a society. Obviously there are areas where we didn't want to downscale such as medical care. But there's a lot of techn…

This is a rose tinted glasses take. I guarantee if you took anyone from the past they'd want to live our lives today, and that's not to even say anything of being in a developing country today with lack of access to adequate supplies and medicine.

> also so-called "breaking your back" has the same effect as going to the gym

I can tell you've never worked a manual labor job in your life. The workload definitely does not have the same workload as just "going to the gym."

Re: I don't know if my job will still exist in ten years

#103

Post by satvikpendem »

parpfish wrote: post #97
dmitrygr wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And do what, what buggy whip unions did?

The dynamics are different when the demand for the product dies off and there’s no money to pay salaries vs worker productivity increasing and you need fewer workers. Replacing workers will be used to increase profit margins rather than lower prices because there’s no competition to force prices down thanks to monopolistic consolidation

The demand for the product (software engineers) dies off, therefore a union has no leverage.

Re: I don't know if my job will still exist in ten years

#104

Post by satvikpendem »

pibaker wrote: post #79
parpfish wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i've been advocating for developers to unionize for years, and there'd always be a big group saying "we don't need a union". AI-based job displacement will do wonders for raising class consciousness when it's too late. the best time to unionize is when you don't need a union.

When dockworkers went on strikes in 2024, one of their demands was to forbid automation of their jobs. HN responded negatively. How the tables have turned now it is white collar jobs' turn on the chopping block! https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41704618

Indeed, I always noticed the same hypocrisy as well, it's only a problem when it affects my livelihood right?

Re: I don't know if my job will still exist in ten years

#105

Post by bananamerica »

vages wrote: post #67
darth_avocado wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s a reason AI is banned in Dune and Warhammer 40K

While I see your point, I think AI may be banned in those universes for the same reason that time-travelling devices tend to be written out of sci-fi and fantasy: Stories are better without them. (If one counts the ever unfolding history of the world as a story, my counter-point actually validates your original point. Touché.)

Those broads limitations also make writing the stories easier, since the author/worldbuilder doesn't have to come up with 100 different reasons why it can't be done for each particular case. He only have to do it once.

Re: I don't know if my job will still exist in ten years

#106

Post by georgemcbay »

dd8601fn wrote: post #99
ehnto wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I actually think AI has an unfair advantage with software that is making it seem far more capable that it is. Software is entirely text based, and producers have been putting their outputs and problem solving online for free for decades. I think applying AI to other white collar roles that also require problem solving but do not have as much training, will prove much more difficult. Even coding on proprietary dominat…

I get what you’re saying, but it’s not as though there are trillions of books and blog posts and stackexchange questions about excel and the handful of other things that most office workers do, too. I honestly figured that’s why everyone is coming out with MS Office plugins for all the models, and MS itself is putting it in the tools. So if most any company only needs one person to solve limited IT issues, prompt cod…

> Then, what about the people making and maintaining all the facilities for these people we don’t need anymore?

And all the small businesses like local restaurants and coffee shops that they frequent, etc, etc.

There are so many 2nd order contagion impacts if the knowledge work economy implodes that very few people won't be negatively impacted to some significant degree.

And some people seem to think that outcome means the government will step in and engineer some sort of soft landing. And outside of the US this may very well be true, but here in the US? Seems unlikely.

Re: I don't know if my job will still exist in ten years

#107

Post by margalabargala »

blululu wrote: post #26
margalabargala wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My favorite hope about AI is that it will finally kill leetcode interviews.

Would love this but I feel like it is equally likely to end up being something like: “solve 500 leet code hard problems with agentic tooling while I grill you about a time when you dealt with failure”

I still prefer that to "here's a problem statement with some subtle non-obvious approach specific to this class of problem, either you've memorized it in advance or you fail."

Re: I don't know if my job will still exist in ten years

#108

Post by eudamoniac »

Insanity wrote: post #4

In “Ask HN style”, let’s say that software engineering does go extinct in the next X years, what would you do? I’ve thought about psychology. I know LLMs can work as pseudo-therapists but I feel like that’s a field where the human connection / human element will remain important.

I've decided to look into becoming either a landscape designer or an electrician. Worst case scenario, there is always a nursing shortage and it's really not very hard to get that degree.

Re: I don't know if my job will still exist in ten years

#110

Post by QuiEgo »

I'm curious what our industry looks like in 10 years as well.

I like the architecture analogy. An architect is not really focused on doing the actual building of a design, but understanding what's possible, what tools and techniques and materials are available, and figuring out how to put the pieces together to make a thing.

Right now, you're the architect who designs a house, but you're also the cement mixer, framer, drywall installer, plumber, electrician, and so on, all at once.

In this analogy, it's hard to design anything big like a skyscraper if you're bogged down by all of the minutia like picking out what type of nails to use for the framing and then installing them.

I think going forward, AI is going to do a lot of the non-architecture part of software engineering. We will all become architects.

The difference between us will be the scope of what we're qualified to design as we go through our careers - new grads will cut their teeth on the likes of designing shacks, principals design skyscrapers.

I think this also unfortunately means there's gonna be a lot less people in software. The industry will still exist though, but it's going to look way different.

I look forward to this being settled out, the uncertainty sucks.

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